NFL SGP Picks: Smarter Same Game Parlays For Ravens Vs. Chiefs Thursday Night Football

NFL same game parlays and player props are available at sportsbooks within Thursday Night Football odds. This year, TheLines.com staff is focused on delivering smarter same game parlay ideas, starting with the NFL Week 1 kickoff between the Baltimore Ravens and Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Sportsbook software has become increasingly sophisticated in adjusting odds for correlated outcomes in SGPs. This season, we’ll target what appear to be uncorrelated SGPs that may actually fit a player’s role. Yet, sportsbook SGP machines often spit out longshot prices better than the fair odds, in our opinion.

Below, we’ll highlight NFL TNF player props and a potential Ravens vs. Chiefs smarter SGP strategy for those player prop picks.

BetFinder Tool: THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PLAYER PROPS

To search Thursday Night Football player props, type in the player’s name below. For additional odds, click the “Show all bets” button. Click on the odds anywhere in the table to bet now.

2024 Strategy For NFL same game parlays

When it comes to SGPs, we cannot emphasize enough how important it is to shop around. In our research for this season’s strategy, we sometimes found the same SGP at double the price vs. other betting apps:

SGP machines tend to offer lower payouts than the fair odds on correlated same game parlays.

One example of an uncorrelated SGP that apps may have trouble pricing is running back with high red zone usage for potential touchdowns but low rushing volume, overall, for high-end yardage totals.

• Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord, with more than 4,000 community members and our staff sharing betting ideas every day. Go to the #roles server to get push notifications to the Discord app from TheLines.com staff when they lock in a bet.

Smarter SGP Ideas: ravens AT chiefs Thursday Night Football

I will be referencing FanDuel Sportsbook odds, but as mentioned above, it’s a very strong practice to shop for the best odds. If you only have one or two sportsbooks, now is the time to open more and lock in additional NFL promo codes.

Same Game Parlay Idea No. 1 at +737 Odds

• Xavier Worthy UNDER 3.5 Receptions Made
• Xavier Worthy 50+ Receiving Yards

Worthy showcased his explosiveness at the collegiate level, scoring 27 career TDs and averaging a dynamic 14.1 yards per punt return. He proceeded to break the NFL Combine 40-yard dash record (4.21). 

The Chiefs had speedy wideouts in Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson running a ton of routes last year, but neither were receivers who commanded targets.

This preseason, Worthy displayed his upside, drawing a target on 31.6% of his routes with 3.26 yards per route run. Worthy did run a route on 88.9% of the dropbacks for Mahomes this preseason, drawing a target on 25.0% of those routes. With Marquise Brown not expected to play in Week 1, Worthy should be set up to play close to a full-time role.

Combine Worthy’s speed and Mahomes likelihood to try pushing the ball more downfield this season, it shouldn’t surprise many to see Worthy leading the team in yards per reception in 2024. I’m betting on Worthy to go under his reception line, but over his receiving yards line may fit his role. Worthy’s one reception from Mahomes this preseason was for 39 yards.

Same Game Parlays: Idea No. 2 at +557 Parlay Odds

• Rashee Rice UNDER 60.5 Receiving Yards
• Rashee Rice 6+ Receptions Made

During Rice’s final 10 games as a rookie, he jumped up to 2.59 yards per route run and a much larger role in the Chiefs offense. He ran a route on 69.4% of the team dropbacks with a 23.9% share of the team targets to close the year. He had at least 25.0% of the team’s targets in seven of the last 10 games. By the end of the regular season, Rice caught 79 passes for 938 yards and seven touchdowns.

Rice only averaged 4.6 air yards per target last year, showcasing the Chiefs’ desire to get him the ball in the short and intermediate part of the field. 83.7% of his targets as a rookie were fewer than 10 yards downfield, which led the league.

Rice only had 46 yards when these teams played in the AFC Championship last year, but he caught eight passes on nine targets. With Marquise Brown on the shelf for the opener, Rice should be in line for another volume-based opportunity. It is worth noting that Rice accumulated eight or more targets in eight of his final 10 games last season (including the postseason).

Same Game Parlays: Idea No. 3 at +302 Odds

• Derrick Henry UNDER 67.5 Rushing Yards
• Derrick Henry Anytime TD Scorer

Henry is coming off a season in which he rushed for a career-low in yards per carry (4.2). Despite giving away more snaps in 2023, Henry still led the NFL in rushing attempts for the fourth time over the past five seasons. Although Henry did display some decline, he still managed to rush for double-digit touchdowns for the sixth consecutive season.

“King” Henry is joining a Baltimore team that was fourth in the NFL in points per game (27.7) and sixth in points per drive (2.35) last season. The Ravens had 74 red zone possessions in 2023 (fifth), while the Titans had 48 (23rd), and Henry still found his way to double-digit touchdowns.

Baltimore ran the football 59.6% of the time in the red zone, second in the league only behind the Eagles. Baltimore running backs accounted for 20 total rushing touchdowns in 2023, with Gus Edwards vacating 13 scores from last year. Ravens running backs had 40 rushing attempts in goal-to-goal situations (fourth in the league). This all adds up to Henry’s likelihood to punch one in on Thursday night but to be wary of his rushing yards success.

HOW TO FIND TNF Promos For Same Game Parlays

Most SGP promos will require you to opt-in to receive the SGP promo benefits. We are seeing some bonus bets back SGP offers for all users at FanDuel and profit boost offers at bet365, DraftKings, and Caesars. BetMGM offers SGP insurance tokens for bonus bets back if one leg loses.

Chiefs vs. Ravens Odds