During the final weekend of March Madness odds, we have two of the biggest Final Four spreads over the last two decades. The Purdue Boilermakers are spread favorites over the 11th-seeded NC State Wolfpack. In the nightcap, the top-seeded UConn Huskies are stationed as favorites against the Alabama Crimson Tide. Let’s look elsewhere, focusing on two players to go over or under their props for Sleeper picks.
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final four sleeper picks
I’m not interested in backing the upset-minded Wolfpack to win outright, but I like NC State center Mohammed Diarrato hit at least one triple. Rather than touting the trendy DJ Burns for my Sleeper picks, opposing bigs have shined around the arc against Purdue — especially in Big Ten play. With the 7-foot-4 Zach Edey in drop coverage, expect Diarra to attempt a few shots from deep.
Surprisingly, Diarra’s 3-point attempt rate is in the 63rd percentile nationally — one of three Wolfpack above the D-I average in that category. As long as Diarra stays out of foul trouble, he could be a factor in spacing out Purdue’s defense.
Elsewhere, Alabama point guard Marks Sears scoring lower than 19.5 points is an intriguing option for your Sleeper picks. UConn wing Stephon Castle will presumably shadow Sears, which he did against Illinois’ Terrence Shannon Jr. and Northwestern’s Boo Buie in previous tournament matchups.
Dan Hurley’s defense is geared toward running opponents off the 3-point line and forcing them into mid-range jumpers. Sears is somewhat efficient in that area, but this structure dampens his scoring outlook. UConn should also dictate the pace, with the defensive stopper Castle holds his own in the half-court. That isn’t ideal for Sears, either.
Final Four Odds
outside shots: final four betting preview
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