2024 Shriners Children’s Open Golf Odds Preview: Everything To Know About TPC Summerlin
The PGA TOUR’s FedEx Fall Series continues on to Las Vegas, Nevada, with TPC Summerlin next on tap to host the 2024 Shriners Children’s Open. Shriners golf odds make Tom Kim the clear favorite for this upcoming tournament with no other golfers shorter than 20-1 to win.
Now, let’s get into the key facts and info about TPC Summerlin before betting on Shriners Children’s Open odds. Be sure to lock in the best sportsbook promo codes for golf betting this week.
Shriners Golf ODDS: THE FAVORITES
Here are the favorites for Shriners golf odds. Scroll to the bottom of this post to compare odds for the entire field across sportsbooks in your state.
shriners children’s open ODDS: FIELD AT A GLANCE
Next stop: Sin City, Shriners golf odds at TPC Summerlin. Like the first few legs of the new FedExCup Fall series, we’ll continue to see a constant barrage of birdies in the desert this week. Playing at elevation in Las Vegas’ thin desert air, the field as a whole will enjoy a nice distance boost, making this course play considerably shorter than the 7,255 yardage may suggest. With generous fairways & greens and a lack of penal rough, TPC Summerlin is a birdie-maker’s paradise and will continue to reward the top ball strikers in the field.
Credit the allure of Las Vegas for continuing to attract one of the best fields of the Fall Swing to the Shriners Children’s Open year over year. It’s certainly not the event history, tournament stakes, or appeal of the course that’s brought in such an improved depth of talent since Jackson, Mississippi, and Ivins, Utah, played host over the last two weeks.
The Field
Tom Kim is your headliner this time around, as the No. 25 player in the world returns in chase of the elusive three-peat. If successful, Kim will become the first player since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic on 2011 to pull off such a feat. He won’t have the same caliber of competition to overcome like in 2022 when he defeated Patrick Cantlay in a playoff, but relative to other Fall Swing events this year, he’ll face a formidable bunch.
Kim is the lone OWGR top-30 player in the field this week, but he’ll be joined by five additional OWGR top-50 players, which is quite a step up in field strength from recent weeks. Davis Thompson, Cam Davis, Stephan Jaeger, Taylor Pendrith, and Matt McCarty are expected favorites.
In addition to Tom Kim, the list of former Shriners Children’s Open champions back to tee it up in 2024 also includes Martin Laird, Webb Simpson, and Ryan Moore.
INTRODUCTION TO TPC SUMMERLIN
TPC Summerlin is the rare type of birdie fest that surrenders above-TOUR-average marks in Fairway Percentage, Greens In Regulation, and Average Driving Distance. True to desert golf, the ball travels farther in Las Vegas, but firm conditions invite natural desert hazards into play to penalize wayward shots. Looking through a list of past winners that includes the likes of Tom Kim, Martin Laird, Webb Simpson, and Kevin Na, it’s easy to see the importance of keeping the ball in play off the tee.
At TPC Summerlin, birdies are a commodity, and players will need to eclipse -20 to put themselves in contention, as each of the last five champions has done. The desert conditions will level the playing field regarding driving distance, opening the door for more accurate ball strikers to thrive and funneling approaches into the key proximity range of 100-150 yards. Though not tree-lined or explicitly positional, players who have found success on these courses have tended to fare well at TPC Summerlin.
In short, accurate ball strikers with proven past success on short and positional comp courses have shown a robust and repeatable history at the Shriners Children’s Open.
For TPC Summerlin course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past Shriners Children’s Open winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our 2024 Shriners Children’s Open odds page.
COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS
The top 10 in the field in terms of total strokes gained at TPC Summerlin are Tom Kim, Adam Hadwin, Matt NeSmith, Harry Hall, Adam Schenk, Webb Simpson, Davis Thompson, Beau Hossler, Gary Woodland, and Luke List. That group continues to support the prevailing narrative of accurate drivers finding success at TPC Summerlin.
Course Comps
Performance in desert golf conditions tends to be a strong indicator of future success, whether we’re looking at Scottsdale, Palm Desert, or Las Vegas. That makes for an ideal position to run back the hot hand from Black Desert Resort last week, as a very similar style of play will be rewarded yet again at TPC Summerlin.
The through lines include firmer, faster conditions and dry air, which mitigates any disadvantage from the shorter hitters in the field and instead rewards control off the tee. Desert golf conditions also remove thick, penal rough and instead insert water and natural hazards, which penalizes wayward bombers and creates a unique challenge around the greens compared to a typical parkland United States golf course. For these reasons, I’ll look closely at recent desert golf courses on the PGA TOUR schedule as comps, including TPC Scottsdale, Stadium Course, Shadow Creek, and Summit Club.
The prototypical short, positional courses on the PGA TOUR rotation, like Waialae CC, Sedgefield CC, Harbour Town, Colonial CC, and TPC Southwind, each have a strong correlation of overlapping success amongst players with top course history like Tom Kim, Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Webb Simpson, Kevin Na, Martin Laird, and Jim Furyk.
Combine performance across this list, and the top-10 players in Comp Course History here are Keith Mitchell, Jacob Bridgeman, Davis Thompson, Daniel Berger, Maverick McNealy, Tom Hoge, Taylor Pendrith, JT Poston, Kurt Kitayama, and Tom Kim.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER For Shriners Golf Odds
- SG: APP
- Fairways Gained / Good Drives Gained
- Birdies or Better Gained
- Prox: 100-150
- SG: SG / SG: P (L36)
- P4: 400-450
- SG: T2G (<7,200 Yard Courses)
- Course + Comp Course History
To keep it simple, the ideal player for this week should rank above-average in Course & Comp Course History, Good Drives Gained, SG: T2G (<7,200 Yards), SG: APP, and Birdies or Better Gained. There are 11 players who fit that criteria: Tom Kim, Chan Kim, Jhonattan Vegas, Davis Thompson, Daniel Berger, Ben Kohles, Seamus Power, Doug Ghim, Ben Silverman, Henrik Norlander, and Cam Davis.
Correlations
Looking at the correlation charts this week, there is a notable jump in the importance of SG: SG at TPC Summerlin, which is skewed in part by the 14.2 strokes Kevin Na needed to gain to win in 2020. However, the notion of needing to putt well and get up and down for par saves on any missed greens in regulation does make sense on an easy-scoring layout such as this.
Conversely, SG: OTT is far less indicative of success at this event, with lack of distance not being a detriment to this field and the rough not being especially penal in instances where players do miss the fairway.
Only seven players in the field rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Davis Thompson, Ben Kohles, Seamus Power, Ben Silverman, Roger Sloan, Chandler Phillips, and Carson Young.
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: DAVIS THOMPSON
My first impression after sifting through the 2024 Shriners Children’s Open was, “Oh, Davis Thompson’s playing? He’ll win here.” That’s not quite a conviction guarantee that he will, but after a full deep dive of research into this week’s event later, all roads lead me back to Davis Thompson as the most viable threat to thwart Tom Kim’s three-peat bid.
We haven’t seen Thompson compete since the BMW Championship in August, but the second-year rising star will begin the year with very lofty expectations. In addition to picking up his first career win in birdie fest conditions at the John Deere Classic, Thompson proved he was here to stay on the PGA TOUR with a total of six top-15 finishes. It’s his ability to score throughout his bag that has many experts excited about Thompson’s long-term prospects, as he closed 2023 averaging 0.5+ strokes gained across all four major categories.
Thompson’s game seems very well-suited for desert golf conditions, too. He ranks No. 3 in the field in Comp Course History with a runner-up finish to Jon Rahm at The American Express in 2023 and a total of four top-20 finishes over six career starts across TPC Scottsdale, PGA West, and TPC Summerlin. At The Shriners Children’s Open, Thompson looked comfortable starting with a T12 and T35 over his first two appearances.
With higher expectations and less competition in 2024, Davis Thompson is my pick to win the Shriners Children’s Open. He looks to add to an already stellar resume in desert golf conditions.
2024 SHRINERS CHILDREN’S OPEN: PLAYER POOL AND MODEL RESULTS
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m also looking their way in the PGA TOUR odds. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.
Model Breakdown
In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: APP, Comp Course History, and Prox: 100-150, followed by a more balanced mix of Birdies or Better Gained, Good Drives Gained, SG: T2G (<7,200 Yard Courses), and SG: Short Game.
Model Favorites
The top-rated player in terms of OWGR is unsurprisingly also the top man in my model this week. I was fortunate to have Tom Kim on my betting card for his first Shriners Children’s Open victory in 2022,, and he looks poised to chase a three-peat yet again in 2024 after an inspired showing when last seen at the Presidents Cup.
After Kim, the rest of my model’s top 10 features Keith Mitchell, Chan Kim, Taylor Pendrith, Jhonattan Vegas, JJ Spaun, Davis Thompson, Jacob Bridgeman, Andrew Novak, and Daniel Berger.
When PGA TOUR odds open, I’ll begin my card with Davis Thompson and then look to have more top-heavy exposure to JT Poston, Adam Hadwin, or Eric Cole, depending on where the odds ultimately fall. Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck navigating the Shriners golf odds!
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