2023 Shriners Children's Open Odds Preview: Everything To Know About TPC Summerlin
The PGA TOUR’s FedEx Fall Series continues on to Las Vegas, Nevada, with TPC Summerlin next on tap to host the 2023 Shriners Children's Open. Find longer golf odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential Shriners Children's Open payouts. Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, and Ludvig Aberg project are the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.
Next stop, Sin City, as the PGA TOUR odds open for the Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin. Like the first two legs of the new FedExCup Fall series, we'll continue to see a constant barrage of birdies in the desert this week. Playing at elevation in Las Vegas' thin desert air, the field as a whole will enjoy a nice distance boost, making this course play considerably shorter than the 7,255 yardage may suggest. With generous fairways & greens and a lack of penal rough, TPC Summerlin is a birdie-maker's paradise and will continue to reward the top ball strikers in the field.
Now, let’s get into the key facts and info about TPC Summerlin before betting on Shriners Children’s Open odds.
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shriners children's open ODDS: THE FAVORITES
Here are the favorites for the Shriners Children's Open. Scroll to the bottom of this post to compare odds for the entire field across sportsbooks in your state.
shriners children's open ODDS: FIELD AT A GLANCE
Credit the allure of Las Vegas for continuing to attract one of the best fields of the fall swing to the Shriners Children's Open year over year. It's certainly not the event history, tournament stakes, or appeal of the course that's brought in such an improved depth of talent since last week's Sanderson Farms Championship.
Tom Kim is your headliner this time around, as the No. 16 player in the world returns to defend his 2022 title. Kim is the lone OWGR top-30 player in the field this week, which is hardly a surprise under the FedEx Cup Fall format, however, there is a formidable concentration of 17 players in this field who fall inside the OWGR top 70. Emiliano Grillo, Si Woo Kim, Ludvig Aberg, JT Poston, and Adam Schenk highlight the list of expected favorites this week.
Lexi Thompson's sponsor exemption will also add some intrigue to this week's field. Thompson's selection is curious, considering she has missed the cut in eight of her 13 LPGA starts this season. In any case, she will become just the 7th female golfer to compete in a PGA TOUR event. Her invitation to this event is indeed a gimmick, akin to when former tennis star Mardy Fish was invited to compete in the 3M Open. But if the concept of Sponsor Exemption exists to help sponsors draw intrigue to their events, then it would seem to be a worthwhile spectacle.
In addition to Tom Kim, the list of former Shriners Children's Open champions back to tee it up in 2023 also includes Martin Laird, Ben Martin, Webb Simpson, Ryan Moore, and Jonathan Byrd.
INTRODUCTION TO TPC SUMMERLIN
TPC Summerlin is the rare type of birdie fest that surrenders above-TOUR-average marks in Fairway Percentage, Greens In Regulation, and Average Driving Distance. True to desert golf, the ball travels farther in Las Vegas, but firm conditions invite natural desert hazards into play to penalize wayward shots. Looking through a list of past winners that includes the likes of Tom Kim, Martin Laird, Webb Simpson, and Kevin Na, it's easy to see the importance in keeping the ball in play off-the-tee.
At TPC Summerlin, birdies are a commodity, and players will need to eclipse -20 to put themselves in contention, as each of the last five champions has done. The desert conditions will level the playing field regarding driving distance, opening the door for more accurate ball strikers to thrive and funneling approaches into the key proximity range of 100-150 yards. Though not tree-lined or explicitly positional, players who have found success on these courses have tended to fare well at TPC Summerlin.
In short, accurate ball strikers with proven past success on short and positional comp courses have shown a robust and repeatable history at the Shriners Children's Open.
For TPC Summerlin course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past Shriners Children's Open winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our 2023 Shriners Children's Open odds page.
COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS
The top-10 players in the field in terms of total strokes gained at TPC Summerlin are Webb Simpson, Matthew NeSmith, Adam Hadwin, Ryan Moore, Adam Schenk, Tom Kim, Martin Laird, Harry Hall, Si Woo Kim, and Hayden Buckley. That group continues to support the prevailing narrative of accurate drivers finding success at TPC Summerlin. Patrick Cantlay has also been known to dominate this event year over year but is absent this time around, presumably galivanting hatless through Tuscany on his honeymoon.
Course Comps
Performance in desert golf conditions tends to be a strong indicator of future success, whether we’re looking at Scottsdale, Palm Desert, or Las Vegas. The through lines include firmer, faster conditions and dry air, which mitigates any disadvantage from the shorter hitters in the field and instead rewards control off the tee. Desert golf conditions also remove thick, penal rough and instead insert water and natural hazards, which penalizes wayward bombers and creates a unique challenge around the greens compared to a typical parkland United States golf course. For these reasons, I’ll look closely at recent desert golf courses on the PGA TOUR schedule as comps, including TPC Scottsdale, Stadium Course, Shadow Creek, and Summit Club.
The prototypical short, positional courses on the PGA TOUR rotation, like Waialae CC, Sedgefield CC, Harbour Town, Colonial CC, and TPC Southwind, each have a strong correlation of overlapping success amongst players with top course history like Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Webb Simpson, Kevin Na, Martin Laird, and Jim Furyk.
Combine performance across this list, and the top-10 players in Comp Course History here are Tom Kim, Cam Davis, JT Poston, Si Woo Kim, Andrew Putnam, Adam Hadwin, Matthias Schmid, Chez Reavie, Ben Griffin, and Adam Schenk.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER
- SG: APP
- Fairways Gained / Good Drives Gained
- Birdies or Better Gained
- Prox: 100-150
- SG: SG / SG: P (L36)
- P4: 400-450
- SG: T2G (<7,200 Yard Courses)
- Course + Comp Course History
To keep it simple, the ideal player for this week should rank above-average in Course & Comp Course History, Good Drives Gained, SG: T2G (<7,200 Yards), SG: APP, and Birdies or Better Gained. There are 12 players who fit that criteria: Tom Kim, Doug Ghim, Aaron Rai, JJ Spaun, Si Woo Kim, Adam Hadwin, Kevin Streelman, David Lipsky, Carson Young, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Ryan Palmer, and Kevin Yu.
Correlations
Looking at the correlation charts this week, there is a notable jump in the importance of SG: SG at TPC Summerlin, which is skewed in part by the 14.2 strokes putting Kevin Na needed to gain in order to win in 2020, however, the notion of needing to putt well and get up and down for par saves on any missed greens in regulation does make sense on an easy-scoring layout such as this.
Conversely, SG: OTT is far less indicative of success at this event, with lack of distance not being a detriment to this field and the rough not being especially penal in instances where players do miss the fairway.
Only seven players in the field rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: JT Poston, Doug Ghim, Chez Reavie, Austin Eckroat, Andrew Novak, Kevin Streelman, and Nate Lashley.
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: AARON RAI
Am I bold enough to drop a full-blown conviction guarantee that our Thursday hero, Aaron Rai will win the Shriners Children's Open the same weekend as my own wedding? Not quite. But man, there is a whole lot to love about his fit and perceived betting value as he prepares to make his first start of the new fall season.
Rai is elite in the areas that are most important at TPC Summerlin when looking over his last 36 rounds. He ranks top-10 in SG: APP, Good Drives Gained, Prox: 100-150, SG: Ball Striking, Fairways Gained, Double Bogey Avoidance, and Par-4: 400-450 Scoring. Combined, that's good enough to rank Rai No. 3 overall in my model this week.
Though making his first PGA TOUR start in two months, Rai has kept busy on the DP World Tour, recently finishing T2 at the BMW PGA Championship just three weeks ago. That marks his fourth top-12 finish over his last 12 starts.
Rai will be making his third career appearance at the Shriners Children's Open this week, returning after an encouraging T20 finish last year in which he finished second in the field in SG: APP. On a course that places a premium on accurate ball striking and avoiding trouble, TPC Summerlin is a quintessential course fit to suit Rai's strengths.
2023 SHRINERS CHILDREN'S OPEN: PLAYER POOL AND MODEL RESULTS
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m also looking their way in the PGA TOUR odds. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.
Model Breakdown
In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: APP, Comp Course History, and Prox: 100-150, followed by a more balanced mix of Birdies or Better Gained, Good Drives Gained, SG: T2G (<7,200 Yard Courses), and SG: Short Game.
Model Favorites
The top-rated player in terms of OWGR is unsurprisingly also the top man in my model this week. I was fortunate to have Tom Kim on my betting card at this event last year, and he looks poised to chase a repeat yet again in 2023, albeit at expectedly shorter odds. With a streak of seven consecutive top-25s, Kim has shown no signs of slowing down since his ankle injury at The Open Championship, and will be a deserving favorite when odds release on Monday.
After Kim, the rest of my model’s top 10 features Doug Ghim, Aaron Rai, Chez Reavie, Alex Smalley, Eric Cole, JT Poston, Adam Schenk, Cam Davis, and Andrew Putnam.
When PGA TOUR odds open on Monday, I'll begin my card with Aaron Rai, and then look to have more top-heavy exposure to JT Poston, Adam Schenk, or Eric Cole, depending on where the odds ultimately fall. Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck navigating the Shriners Children's Open and PGA TOUR odds!
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Shriners Children's Open Odds Comparison Table
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