Seattle Mariners Odds: MLB Win Totals, Projections, Possible Bets
Welcome to TheLines.com's 2024 MLB odds preview series. Here, we'll preview every team's 2024 season with a focus on MLB win totals and World Series odds. We'll evaluate each team's roster and see if there are any wagers worth considering. Today, we'll look at Seattle Mariners odds.
Last year, the Mariners hoped to take another step forward after ending a lengthy playoff drought in 2022. Unfortunately for them, a brutal AL West race saw them narrowly miss the playoffs despite an 88-win campaign.
Can they get back on the ascension track, or will the team get stuck in the middle of another meatgrinder of an AL?
Use the nav bar in the top left below to compare different MLB futures markets.
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Mariners Odds: An Overview And What The Projections Say
First, let's compare the market on Mariners odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- 2023 wins: 88
- Market wins: /
- FanGraphs wins: 85.1
- Baseball Prospectus wins: 85
The Mariners were one of the unluckiest teams as far as sequencing went in 2023. They "should have" won 92 games and finished ahead of the Astros. Many times, a poor bullpen is to blame when situations like that occur, but the M's actually had arguably the best pen in MLB.
The market is a bit more bullish than the projections, and that may be due to the Mariners' depth. Since there aren't really many glaring holes on this roster, Seattle may be better set up than most to weather inevitable injuries, meaning the team has pretty limited downside.
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Evaluating The Mariners Roster
Bats And Defense
The Mariners exhibited a lack of punch at times last season, so it may be a bit surprising to some observers to learn the team's offense ranked easily in the top half of the league. They actually ranked in the top 10 of wRC+ and ISO, but too many strikeouts (second in K%) and, consequently, a mediocre OBP had them distributing runs in an inconsistent fashion.
Slugging OF Teoscar Hernandez has moved on, but multiple power bats have been added: Luke Raley, Jorge Polanco, and Mitch Garver.
Health and defense are question marks with the latter two, but the Mariners look like they've built a really solid lineup from top to bottom. Ty France, Raley, Mitch Haniger (before his inevitable injury), and Josh Rojas compare favorably to the back half of most MLB lineups.
Last year's defense was one of MLB's stronger groups, but the Mariners look like they'll take a step back there and may top out at below average. Cal Raleigh's framing skills (ninth in Statcast's rankings) provide a solid base, but JP Crawford's metrics are trending the wrong way, and the aforementioned additions all lean toward offense rather than defense. Polanco has been particularly brutal with the glove, so there's a lot of pressure on his bat.
Pitching
Few teams can match Seattle in either high-end pitching or depth.
The rotation goes five deep with quality arms. Luis Castillo and George Kirby are stars, and Logan Gilbert is at least above average. Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo would comfortably slot in the middle of most rotations, although the pair's reliance on their fastballs does call into question the sustainability of their early success.
Aside from Castillo, everyone is on the right side of the aging curve, and he still looks like he's in his prime
The bullpen is more top-heavy. Andres Munoz looks like a star closer in the making if he isn't already there. Gregory Santos and Gabe Speier provide quality support, one from each side of the rubber.
Matt Brash is also a potential star closer, but his health rates as an early concern here as he's sidelined with the dreaded "arm discomfort." There isn't any depth here beyond the top three, so if Brash misses significant time, it would be a sizable blow. He was one of the most dominant relievers in baseball last year with a 2.26 FIP and copious viral GIFs generated.
Possible Bets On Mariners Odds
I lean more towards the market number than the projections here, as I expect Seattle to win between 85 and 90 games and possibly challenge for the division. However, the +300 isn't quite enticing enough to me, and I don't see any value in the win total either.
I like the depth of this team, but I'm a little concerned about the thin bullpen and defensive regression. I don't think they quite have enough to catch the Astros at the top of the West, but I do wonder if there are some bets to be made in more obscure/exotic markets.
One place of interest for me lies in comparing the outlook of the Mariners to the defending champion Rangers. The markets still like the Rangers quite a bit, slotting them above the Mariners in AL West futures and win totals.
While I still believe the Rangers have more World Series equity due to a higher top end (if their pitching returns healthy and the team still remains in playoff position), I'm leaning a little more toward Seattle as far as the regular season goes. Although Texas still boasts a thunderous lineup, the bullpen looks very shaky, and it's anyone's guess what happens with the starting pitching. Three of the Rangers' arguably top-four arms are starting the year on the IL, and not with small maladies. Even regarding the bats, the Rangers got career seasons or close from their top three hitters, which isn't likely to repeat.
DraftKings Sportsbook has a straight tricast option of Houston/Seattle/Texas at +350. I may place a bet on that. If I do, I'll share it in TheLines.com's free Discord channel in mlb-staff-bets.
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