5 Potential PGA TOUR Golf Sleeper Picks: 2022 Genesis Scottish Open

Written By John Haslbauer on July 5, 2022
scottish open picks

We finally got one across the finish line at last week’s John Deere Classic thanks to JT Poston. So with newfound momentum, we look ahead to the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open odds. In its first year co-sanctioned as a PGA TOUR event, the stars have come out in masses, as the top of the board this week will look reminiscent of a Major championship. All but Rory McIlroy from the OWGR top 10 will be teeing it up in Scotland this week for us to consider among our potential Scottish Open picks.

With so many top-heavy names in the field this week, it creates a perfect opportunity to capitalize on drastic odds and pricing drops for mid to low-tier players. With so much randomness in store from the conditions of links golf, it’s a great opportunity to search for high upside value.

Below we’ll look at potential Genesis Scottish Open picks and dig in deep as we look for sleepers in this week’s golf oddsClick on the odds to bet now. 

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COURSE INTRODUCTION

The Renaissance Club is a modern Scottish links course established in 2008 and designed by Tom Doak, who is most known for his nuances on and around the greens. In true links fashion, the course features firm and fast fairways, fescue rough, pot bunkers, slow fescue greens, and predominantly large, wide fairways and greens which will encourage players to use the ground. The exposure to coastal winds creates a new challenge compared to the usual week-to-week set ups of the PGA Tour, and we’ll see a higher dosage of knock down shots and “Texas wedges” as a result. In its first three years hosting the Scottish Open, The Renaissance Club has favored longer drivers over accurate ones, and with winds expected to be uncharacteristically low Thursday through Sunday, this high quality field should be licking their chops to go low. Birdie-makers with plus-distance and proven prior results on European links courses is the player archetype I’m seeking out this week.

For a deeper dive into the course, read my Genesis Scottish Open preview. Without any further delay, let’s get to our Genesis Scottish Open picks with a look at longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups.

POTENTIAL SLEEPER GENESIS SCOTTISH OPEN PICKS

From a golf betting perspective, I’m going to be building out one of the longer outright cards of the year this week, hedging my bets across a volume of players at 100-1 or longer odds. It’s truly a perfect storm to bet longshots this week. The caliber of players at the top of the field will naturally inflate the rest of the field’s odds, however a majority of the top names come without experience on this course, or on European links courses in general. Each of the top players will also be treating this as a tune-up in links conditions before The Open in the following week, which would give me pause to build a tight, top-heavy card. Instead, there are a load of in-form players from the DP World Tour with experience in links conditions, with more motivation to contend at the the Scottish Open. And finally, with this course’s position on the coastline, the field is highly susceptible to random, gusting conditions, so the best way to hedge around randomness is exposure through a wider pool of players. I’ve already placed outright bets on each of the five players below.

Similarly for DFS, there are tons of options in the low $7K and $6K ranges that allow for flexibility in lineup construction.

Below is a look at my favorite value leverage plays and longshots for the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open! Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.

Gary Woodland (+8000, $7,300)

When we think of firm and fast fairways, and the importance of flighting your ball down beneath the wind with lower ball flights to use the ground, my mind goes straight to Gary Woodland. Unfortunately his record in The Open Championship hasn’t necessary backed that up when put to the test on the British links in the past, but a T12 at the 2016 Open Championship at Royal Troon should leave some room for optimism.

On the PGA TOUR, Woodland has leaned on his ability to flight the ball down to thrive on coastal, windy setups. He famously took down the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach Golf Links (Not the same style of links to this week but we’ll give him some brownie points), and he’s picked up top-10 finishes this 2022 season between the Honda Classic, Arnold Palmer Invitational, and Valero Texas Open, which each endured high sustained winds. Now coming in hot off of a T10 at the U.S. Open in his previous start, Woodland has plenty of upside for the long price.

Jordan Smith (+13000, $7,300)

The Scottish Links pose a significant change of pace when compared with the traditional parkland golf course style most from the PGA TOUR are accustomed to seeing week to week. For that reason, this week is a great opportunity to buy low on the top DP World Tour players with experience in these conditions and proven results at The Renaissance Club. Jordan Smith is not a household name stateside, but enters this week in excellent form, finishing top-25 in each of his last six starts. On the 2022 DP World Tour season, he’s finished outside the top-25 only twice over 13 starts, including two runner up finishes between the MyGolfLife Open and Ras al Khaimah Championship. Smith profiles as an elite driver off the tee, gaining on the field in both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy all but twice this 2022 season. That should suit him well at The Renaissance Club, where he’s gained strokes both OTT and APP in all three of his prior appearances. Smith is seeking his first win since the 2017 Porsche European Open, but has been knocking on the door with great top-25 upside.

Victor Perez (+12500, $6,900)

Victor Perez is currently the only future bet I’ve placed for the 2022 Open Championship, and for all the same reasons I like him for The Old Course, I like him just as much among Scottish Open picks. Perez burst onto the scene on the DP World Tour after winning the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Links golf is a unique beast, so I like going back to those who have found consistent success on links courses in the past. In the case of The Renaissance Club, Perez has felt at home in Scotland, a perfect three-for-three in made cuts, highlighted by a T14 in 2020. His T59 at the 2021 Scottish Open may not look like much, but he was in contention, starting Sunday at T8 before nasty weather conditions plummeted him down the leaderboard with a final round 78. And it’s no coincidence Perez feels at home here; the Frenchman recently moved to Scotland, just down the road from the Old Course, so it’s no secret he has an affinity towards links golf. Perez shouldn’t feel intimidated by a stronger field this time around in 2022 either, as he’s posted top-10 finishes at THE PLAYERS and WGC HSBC against the strongest fields in golf within the last three years. Now entering fresh off a win and a T3 over his last four starts, Perez is poised to make another run at The Renaissance Club.

Garrick Higgo (+40000, $6,500)

I’ve been waiting for Garrick Higgo to show some signs of life after bursting on to the scene with a win at the Palmetto Championship in his PGA TOUR debut. It’s been over a year of waiting now, but I think we’re just starting to see the South African begin to piece the game back together again.

Higgo was a sensation on the DP World Tour this time last year, picking up two wins and five additional top-20 finishes in eight starts between March and May 2021. At the 2022 Memorial Tournament, we finally saw glimpses again of that past form. He finished T18, rating 6th in SG: APP for the week and top-20 in SG: P. Higgo is a bomber who’s never lost his distance throughout this year-long slump, so a simple game plan of Distance, Approach, and Putting would be enough to channel a similar top-20 push as we saw at the Memorial. While his short game has been to blame for the three missed cuts in his last four events, Higgo’s ball striking is starting to trend, now gaining in each of his last three events. Higgo finished T26 at this event in 2020 despite losing strokes both around the green and putting, so at this price, he’s worth a gamble with legitimate top-30 upside.

Callum Tarren (+35000, $6,300)

The Englishman has kept busy in the United States, having played a full schedule on the PGA TOUR this year and the Korn Ferry Tour from 2019-2021. That should make for a nice homecoming to the UK after qualifying for this co-sanctioned event on the heels of his strong recent play. With conditions looking calm, I see a clear path to bomb & gauge this course. Tarren’s combination of elite Driving Distance (No. 10), streaky putting (1.5+ SG: P in five of his last seven starts), and trending approach play (gaining in three consecutive events, including top-10 at the U.S. Open) present extremely high upside for such a cheap price. Fatigue is a valid concern for Tarren, who will be playing in his fifth consecutive week, with a long flight from Silvis, Illinois to Edinburgh, Scotland. With that said, he’s coming in hot off of a T6 finish at the John Deere Classic in which he gained across all four strokes gained categories, so if he can continue to ride off of those fumes, The Renaissance Club presents an even better fit for his game.

Best of luck making your Scottish Open picks.

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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