2022 Genesis Scottish Open & Barbasol Championship Betting Card, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on July 6, 2022
Scottish Open bets

It’s the end of another week of prep for the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open. With the Scottish Open bets all locked in, I’m excited to kick back for some late night golf action.

As an added bonus, I decided to carve some dollars out of my usual weekly bets to also give myself something to sweat at the Barbasol Championship.

Weather likely won’t play as big of a factor as we’ve seen in past Scottish Opens. If that’s the case, we may have ourselves a glorified birdie-fest putting contest. In anticipation of more docile conditions, and considering the sheer talent in this week’s field, I expect we will see a winning score of -20. I’m looking for longer hitters who can string together a streak of birdies, but who also possess the links experience to navigate a different layout than what most on the PGA TOUR see week to week.

HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

I’ve said this a lot in my articles, but I’ll say it again. Volume serves as the best defense against randomness. When I look at an event co-sanctioned between two tours on a relatively new course in conditions that can bring volatility, all I see is randomness. So rather than double down on a tight card with a few favorites, I’m going in the other directions and spreading my exposure across a wider list of names that could fit the course well. This hedges against a few different scenarios of how the course goes on to play.

Last week, I bet the favorite Adam Hadwin, which left room for only five outrights on the card. It worked out. This week, I’m doubling the card to 11 outrights, fading the board under 30-to-1, but still keeping unit exposure exactly the same. Since we have two PGA TOUR events at stake this week, I pulled 1 unit out of my usual prop bets to put towards a mini Barbasol Championship outright card. So while the card looks much busier this week, it still features the same overall exposure going in to the Genesis Scottish Open and Barbasol Championship.

  • Scottish Open outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • Barbasol Championship outrights – 1U in to pay out 24U each
  • Scottish Open first-round leader 0.5U in to pay out 10U+
  • Scottish Open props – 2U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the odds below to bet now at the best available price across legal sportsbooks in your state.

GENESIS SCOTTISH OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Cameron Smith

My Bet: +3300

Best Odds Still Available:

A down month on the greens has not deterred me from believing that Cameron Smith is still the best putter in the world. If the weather forecast holds, this could very well come down to a putting contest on oversized greens and hardly penal rough. His profile of above-average distance and elite Approach and Short Game was key to taking down the Sentry Tournament of Champions. It’s a perfect combination for links golf as well. For all intents and purposes, Cameron Smith is a better version of Min Woo Lee. Back-to-back Aussie winners in Scotland would not surprise me.

Viktor Hovland

My Bet: +4500

Best Odds Still Available:

Like Smith, this is a value play, buying the dip after a few down rounds leading in. If Viktor Hovland and his long-term form decide to show up this week, he should feast at The Renaissance Club. The over-sized greens and tight surrounding lies should easily mask the around-the-green shortcomings in his game. An elite ball-striker like Hovland should thrive on these conditions. He boasts some of the most consistently dominant form on European soil of anyone in this field, finishing T12 or better in six of his last seven starts. That includes wins in the last two years at the 2021 BMW International Open and 2022 Slync.io Dubai Desert Classic.

Tyrrell Hatton

My Bet: +6500

Best Odds Still Available:

In the third and final installment of buying low on recent form with the hope of regressing to long-term baselines, we have links specialist Tyrrell Hatton. The case to overlook Hatton’s recent form in favor of course fit is a pretty simple one. We just don’t see links-style courses on the PGA TOUR. On the European Tour, Hatton’s picked up six wins since 2016, including back-to-back wins on at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2016 and 2017. At The Renaissance Club, he makes a short list of players who have finished top 20 in both of his first two appearances. The recent form could be better, but a fourth place finish at this week’s JP McManus Pro-Am encourages a bit.

Keith Mitchell

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

Keith Mitchell has never played in a European Tour event and has missed the cut in both of his two career Open Championship starts. So in that sense, he is the antithesis of Tyrell Hatton. But if we’re looking at the glass half full, Mitchell has never come close to achieving his current form when entering a European links course. On the 2022 season, he leads the entire PGA TOUR in terms of SG: OTT and now enters this week coming off of back-to-back top-10 finishes. Mitchell is a birdie-maker who can drive it far and catch a streaky putter. That fits the upside I’m looking for in a longshot bet this week.

Mito Pereira

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s difficult to know what to expect from Mito in his first foray into European links golf. But it really doesn’t take much to get me behind him at 100-to-1. At Southern Hills, he proved he has the shots in his bag to flight around high winds and the short game to scramble well on tight lies and slow greens. Back-to-back missed cuts get us a nice discount this week, but I have no concerns about the form heading to a new set-up that should suit his game well.

Gary Woodland

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

I’m always looking for a reason to root for Gary, and a T10 at the U.S. Open in his previous start gets me on board with the major champion at triple-digit odds. His ball-striking is in excellent form at the moment, and his game of stingers and low-flighted approaches should serve him well on this links set-up.

Victor Perez

My Bet: +12500

Best Odds Still Available:

The Frenchman and Scottish resident won’t have to travel far to tee it up this week. He’s left no doubt at this point in his career that links golf suits him. On this course, he’s a perfect 3-for-3 in made cuts, highlighted by a T14 finish in 2020. His form this year may be the best it’s ever been preceding the Scottish, as he carries a win and a T3 within his last four starts.

Jordan Smith

My Bet: +13000

Best Odds Still Available: +11000

Jordan Smith has been knocking on the door all season on the DP World Tour. He has two runner-up finishes and two top 10s in his last three starts. He’s one of the premiere ball-strikers on the DP World Tour, and in the seven events in which he’s gained strokes putting this season, he’s finished no worse than T18.

Adri Arnaus

My Bet: +20000, w/ Each Way

Best Odds Still Available: +20000

It’s Wednesday morning and my spotlight player still hasn’t withdrawn, so that’s already a win in my book compared to the last few weeks. I would have bet Arnaus at half the number, so at 200-to-1 odds, he was the first man on my card this week. The Renaissance Club will suit bombers who can putt well, and that is what Arnaus does best. Already a winner on the DP World Tour this season, Arnaus is far more likely to contend than the gaudy odds might suggest.

Callum Tarren

My Bet: +30000, w/ Each Way

Best Odds Still Available: +30000

My biggest concern with Callum Tarren this week is fatigue, as he’ll play in his fifth consecutive week after making a long trip from Illinois to Scotland. But in his own words on Twitter, he’s buzzing for the Scottish Open, so it sounds like he rested well on the flight over. Consider my concerns absolved! Tarren is another great fit for the course as a long hitter with trending approach play. After contending in both the U.S. Open and John Deere Classic over the last three weeks, he is well worth a gamble at these long odds.

Garrick Higgo

My Bet: +40000, w/ Each Way

Best Odds Still Available: +35000

I’m anticipating a very random leaderboard when two tours converge on a relatively new course, exposed to the elements in what may be a tune-up week for some. So, if it’s randomness we’re going to get, I’m not afraid to get a little crazy with a 400-to-1 longshot who just finished top 20 against a better field at the Memorial two starts ago. Higgo also earned three professional worldwide wins just last season.

BARBASOL CHAMPIONSHIP OVERVIEW & OUTRIGHT BETS (1 UNIT)

It would be a bit depressing to take an event which lists Kevin Streelman as the betting favorite too seriously, considering he stands No. 129 in the latest OWGR. But, it is a PGA TOUR event taking place in the Eastern Standard Time zone this week, and I want to watch some golf on my schedule. So I decided to string a few outrights together.

Keene Trace Golf Club is one of the easiest and most quintessential birdie-fest courses on the PGA TOUR. Despite the absence of any viable talent, we should still expect a winning score beyond -20. The fairways are generous, the rough is not especially penal, and the Bermuda greens are pretty hard to miss. So, this should boil down to a putting contest that favors some of the longer hitters in the field, particularly those who can create eagle opportunities on the four easy par 5s.

In a very straightforward, 5-minute model, I weighted 40% SG: TOT (L3 Months), 20% Course History, 20% SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), 10% Birdie or Better Gained (Easy Scoring Conditions), and 10% Driving Distance. With those characteristics in mind, I’m rolling the dice on the below group of four, who stood out as the top values. Without any appealing prospects shorter than 50-to-1 odds, I kept the exposure light at just 1 unit.

Michael Gligic

My Bet: +7000

Best Odds Still Available:

Austin Smotherman

My Bet: +7500

Best Odds Still Available:

James Hahn

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

Paul Barjon

My Bet: +18000

Best Odds Still Available:

GENESIS SCOTTISH OPEN FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Cameron Young

My Bet: +6000

Best Odds Still Available:

I gave Cameron Young a long look from an outright perspective, but ultimately couldn’t pull the trigger despite the solid form and great course fit. I just can’t see him picking up his first PGA TOUR win in his first event on European soil. So I’ll stick to the FRL exposure as a slight hedge against my outright card.

Keith Mitchell

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

If The Renaissance Club goes on to play more modern, and less “linksy” than a traditional Scottish track, with impact winds reduced, then Mitchell fits the bill well for a hot start. No matter where you put him in the world, he’s going to position himself well for opportunities off the tee. So, I’m happy to double down on my exposure at these odds.

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

Nothing to see here, you know the drill. Just another day sweating Sebastian Munoz on a Thursday in a different country. Fun fact, he’s already finished top 30 in the Mexico Open, Canadian Open and U.S. Open, a good sign for his prospects ahead at the Scottish and British Opens.

Min Woo Lee

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available: +9500

There’s no question Min Woo Lee can go low on this course. The last round he played here, he shot -7 on Sunday to force a playoff before his eventual win. Lee has had flashes this season with a T14 at the Masters and T27 at the U.S. Open, so the form isn’t too far away to channel for yet another low round at The Renaissance Club.

Wyndham Clark

My Bet: +12500

Best Odds Still Available:

Wyndham Clark gets the FOMO FRL honors, as he was the last man out on my massive outright betting card. The course fit is perfect for Clark, and the form is in a great place just three starts removed from a T7 at the RBC Canadian Open.

GENESIS SCOTTISH OPEN BETS: PROPS (2 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Jordan Smith

My Bet: +400

Best Odds Still Available: +400

The units that would have otherwise gone towards a conviction prop bet have instead funded the Barbasol Championship outright card this week. But in lieu of an even-odds placement bet, I still feel very good about Smith’s top-20 prospects. In 13 DP World Tour starts this season, Smith has recorded 11 top-25 finishes. Sure, the field strength ramps up this week, but he’s still mispriced at these odds relative to his current form.

Top-40 Finish: Garrick Higgo

My Bet: +490

Best Odds Still Available: +490

A top-20 finish at the Memorial has gone a long way in restoring my faith in Higgo. Not enough so to think he’s a valid top-20 bet, but he’s certainly proven enough to hang around the top 40 in a field that only features 75 PGA TOUR players. Higgo is not a bad long-term putter. If he can just find a way to remain neutral to the field on the greens this week, his ball-striking form is in a fine place to deliver a top-40 finish.

Top-20 Finish: Victor Perez

My Bet: +500

Best Odds Still Available: +410

Behind Ryan Fox, one can make an easy case that Perez offers the next-best chance of any DP World Tour player to win this week. He already has T14 and T28 finishes under his belt at The Renaissance Club and now enters in excellent form having gained strokes ball-striking in four consecutive events.

Top-20 Finish: Adri Arnaus

My Bet: +650

Best Odds Still Available: +600

I simply disagree with Arnaus being priced this far down the board and did not think twice before adding this at +650 odds. Arnaus has a great profile fit for the course, is a recent DP World Tour winner, and has great familiarity with this course and European links in general.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Xander Schauffele

Xander Schauffele has officially gotten hot, winning back to back events at the Travelers Championship and JP McManus Pro-Am. To my surprise, I still haven’t used Xander in One and Done, so with only a couple of months remaining on the 2022 season, I’ll strike now while the iron is hot. Xander finished T10 in his debut here last year and has a polished links resume which includes a T2 at the 2018 Open Championship.

If not Xander, I would also consider Viktor Hovland, Cameron Smith, or Jordan Spieth.

GENESIS SCOTTISH OPEN & BARBASOL CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: THE CARD

That’ll do it for my 2022 Genesis Scottish Open and Barbasol Championship bets. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting. See you on Sunday for the 2022 Open Championship preview.

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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