2023 Sanderson Farms Championship Odds: PGA TOUR FedEx Fall Golf Returns After Ryder Cup

The PGA TOUR’s FedEx Fall Series returns after a brief hiatus for the Ryder Cup. The second event of the new season brings us to the Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Mississippi, for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Find longer golf odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential Sanderson Farms Championship payouts. Ludvig Aberg, Eric Cole, and Emiliano Grillo project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

An eventful weekend of time-shifted, overnight golf viewing is now in the rearview, with Team Europe prevailing decisively over the Americans in Rome at the Ryder Cup. Given the nature of the FedExCup Fall Series, it’s hardly a surprise to see virtually every recognizable player on the PGA TOUR elect to skip the trip to Mississippi in the week immediately following. As such, this event has a wide-open feel when handicapping the favorites and still offers plenty of betting appeal.

A constant stop on the PGA TOUR over the last 10 years, the Country Club of Jackson has produced plenty of surprise results in the early stages of the new season, with ample longshot winners in its brief history. While a variety of play styles work around this golf course, a constant of Bermuda putting, above-average driving distance, and birdie-making ability in easy scoring conditions have proven to be a consistent profile amongst contenders over the years.

Now, let’s get into the key facts and info about the CC of Jackson for the 2023 Sanderson Farms Championship.

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SANDERSON FARMS CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: THE FAVORITES

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SANDERSON FARMS CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: FIELD AT A GLANCE

The Sanderson Farms Championship is not the most storied tournament on the PGA TOUR schedule, nor does the brand of Sanderson Farms (a Mississippi company that sells fresh and frozen chicken) possess the deepest pockets to drive up its purse. So, with that in mind, our expectations for the field immediately following the Ryder Cup overseas should be kept modest.

With that said, under the first year of the revamped FedExCup Fall Series, which disincentives the previous season’s top 70 from competing, this is the worst quality of field the event has ever seen.

From an OWGR standpoint, Emiliano Grillo is the best this field has to offer, ranking No. 36. Tom Hoge, Lee Hodges, Lucas Herbert, Eric Cole, Keith Mitchell, Adam Svensson, KH Lee, and Alex Noren join as the only players inside the OWGR top-70. Although recovering from a figurative and literal Ryder Cup hangover, Ludvig Aberg may be the biggest headlining name in the field, rapidly climbing to No. 80 in the world with just a dozen professional starts under his belt. With Nicolai Hojgaard withdrawing late, Aberg is the only player making the trip from Rome to Jackson.

Mackenzie Hughes is back to defend his 2022 Sanderson Farms title. He’ll be joined by Cameron Champ, Ryan Armour, Peter Malnati, Scott Stallings, and Cody Gribble to represent the list of past champions in this week’s field.

INTRODUCTION TO THE COUNTRY CLUB OF JACKSON

Not the most compelling design on the PGA TOUR, the Sanderson Farms at CC of Jackson is appropriately placed in the Fall Swing, where many other birdie fest putting contests are found.

Similar to the setup we watched in the season opener at the Fortinet Championship, the Sanderson Farms Championship has seen an even split of bombers and plodders go on to win, so there is not one clear profile needed to find success here. Over the last several years, Sam Burns, Sergio Garcia, and Cameron Champ have claimed victory at this event by bombing drives through the fairway as often as Ryan Armour, Peter Malnati, and Nick Taylor have by simply laying back off the tee and ensuring a high volume of their approaches from the fairway.

In short, players who have dialed in their wedges from 100-150 yards and who are comfortable going low on second-shot Bermuda course layouts have been able to find fairly consistent results here.

For CC of Jackson course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past Sanderson Farms Championship winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our 2023 Sanderson Farms Championship odds page.

COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

The top-10 players in the field in terms of total strokes gained at CC of Jackson are William McGirt, Cameron Champ, Mackenzie Hughes, Henrik Norlander, Kevin Streelman, Nick Hardy, Charley Hoffman, Garrick Higgo, Peter Malnati, and CT Pan. That is a very eclectic list, suggesting a great deal of volatility in store, as we often see on more accessible courses with less resistance from tee to green.

Course Comps

Look no further than the first event of the 2023 season as a proxy for what lies ahead at the Country Club at Jackson. Silverado Resort & Spa is another example of a par-72 course that features narrow fairways and a premium on birdie-making, particularly on the four par-5s and has produced champions on opposite sides of the distance and accuracy off-the-tee spectrum. Cameron Champ has won both the Fortinet Championship and Sanderson Farms championship with a bomb & gauge approach. At the same time, Kevin Streelman and Emiliano Grillo have enjoyed overlapping success at both courses by leaning on their driving accuracy.

Over recent years, TPC Twin Cities and Detroit Golf Club have also typically rewarded longer-hitting birdie-makers. And if looking to hone in more specifically on Bermuda courses that reward birdie-makers and favor bombers off-the-tee without significantly threatening rough around the fairways, then the Stadium Course, Innisbrook Resort, and TPC Southwind are also worth a look for overlapping performance.

Combine performance across this list, and the top-10 players in Comp Course History here are Alex Noren, Callum Tarren, Emiliano Grillo, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Hoge, KH Lee, Adam Svensson, Ben Griffin, Sam Ryder, and Ryan Palmer.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER

• SG: APP
• Birdies or Better Gained
• Driving Distance
• Good Drives Gained
• Prox: 100-150
• Par 5 Scoring / P5: 550-600
• P4: 400-450
• SG: Putting (L36, Bermuda)
• SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions)
• Course + Comp Course History

To keep it simple, the ideal player for this week should rank above-average in Par-5 Scoring, Birdies or Better Gained, Prox 100-150, SG: P (Bermuda), Scrambling Gained, and Comp Course History. Just six players rank above average in each: Eric Cole, Dylan Wu, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Emiliano Grillo, Satoshi Kodaira, and Aaron Baddeley.

Correlations

Looking at the correlation charts this week for Country Club of Jackson, it’s Par-3 Scoring and Par-4: 450-500, which fall outside their usual place inside top-10 in correlation compared to TOUR average. That clears the eye test on a course that features some of the easiest par-3s on TOUR and concentrates its par-4s in the longer 450+ yard range.

Scrambling Gained makes the most notable jump inside the top-10 most essential stats at Country Club of Jackson compared to TOUR average, which is a common trend on courses that feature narrow fairways and a larger volume of approach shots from the rough into fast greens.

Only five players in the field rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Doug Ghim, Stephan Jaeger, Greyson Sigg, Beau Hossler, and SH Kim.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: ALEX SMALLEY

When it comes to putting contests, Alex Smalley is probably not the first name that comes up, as he ranked 130th in this field in terms of SG: Putting across the 2022-2023 PGA TOUR season. Be that as it may, Smalley has persistently elevated his game when competition and scoring conditions are at their easiest.

Smalley was excellent in the Fall Swing last season, posting three top-11 finishes between the Houston Open, Bermuda Championship, and RSM Classic. His best career finish came later into the 2022-2023 season, where he placed runner-up to Sepp Straka in similarly easy scoring conditions at the 2023 John Deere Classic.

A Duke graduate and member at Sedgefield Country Club in North Carolina, Smalley is very familiar with Bermuda greens, and is a career-positive putter at the CC of Jackson over his first two career starts. Beyond the flat stick, there’s not much else to be concerned with in Smalley’s game, as he ranks No. 1 in SG: APP and No. 2 in both SG: T2G and SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions).

I usually would not expect to find value in an elite tee-to-green talent versus a weak field. But after an extended 2-month offseason, I believe Smalley can still fly under the radar early into the new season.

2023 SANDERSON FARMS CHAMPIONSHIP: PLAYER POOL AND MODEL RESULTS

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m also looking their way in the PGA TOUR odds. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.

Model Breakdown

In my model, I’m emphasizing Birdies or Better Gained, Comp Course History, Par-5 Scoring, and Prox: 100-150, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: APP, P4: 400-450, Good Drives Gained, Driving Distance, Scrambling Gained, SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), and SG: P (Bermuda + L36).

Model Favorites

In a field as weak as this one, somebody has to emerge as No. 1. In the case of my model, it’s not a huge surprise to see Eric Cole in the top spot. The Florida native is no stranger to Bermuda, as he ranks No. 1 in weighted putting leading into this week. Also ranking No. 1 in Birdie or Better Gained and SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), Cole’s game should translate well to CC of Jackson’s layout, which is generally forgiving for erratic tee shots.

After Cole, the rest of my model’s top 10 features Dylan Wu, Doug Ghim, Stephan Jaeger, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Justin Lower, Emiliano Grillo, Alex Smalley, Sam Ryder, and Kevin Streelman.

When PGA TOUR odds open on Monday, I’m hoping to construct a moderate card of exposure, starting with Eric Cole, Alex Smalley, and Dylan Wu, depending on where the odds ultimately fall. Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck navigating the Sanderson Farms Championship and PGA TOUR odds!

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COMPLETE PGA TOUR ODDS: SANDERSON FARMS CHAMPIONSHIP

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