San Francisco Giants Odds: MLB Win Totals, Projections, Possible Bets
Welcome to TheLines.com’s 2024 Spring Training preview of MLB odds. We’ll preview every team’s 2024 season with a focus on MLB win totals and World Series odds. We’ll evaluate each team’s roster and see if there are any wagers worth considering. Today, we’ll look at San Francisco Giants odds. Click this link to catch up on our other 2024 MLB betting previews.
The Giants continued their post-107-win slide, dropping to sub-.500 amid a season in which they really only had two full-time starting pitchers. However, the franchise’s continued rumblings about willingness to spend big finally manifested in a huge offseason haul.
Will the heavy spending equate to a return to contention?
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Giants Odds: An Overview And What The Projections Say
First, let’s compare the market on Giants odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- 2023 wins: 79
- Market wins: /
- FanGraphs wins: 83.3
- Baseball Prospectus wins: 85.1
Baseball Prospectus quite likes the Giants, projecting them as slight favorites to make the playoffs. Everyone’s in agreement this should be an above-average team.
Frankly, if they aren’t, that would be quite an embarrassment, given the offseason spending. Notable free-agent additions included the 11th-hour signing of defending Cy Young odds-topper Blake Snell, longtime relief standout Jordan Hicks, boppers Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman, and premium Korean import OF Jung Hoo Lee.
Evaluating The Giants Roster
Bats And Defense
The offense was the main issue for the Giants last season, as a 93 wRC+ isn’t going to cut it from a serious playoff contender. The bats went particularly limp down the stretch, as that number dropped to 81 in the second half of the season. Power, in particular, was in short supply — just three teams tallied a lower SLG.
While this year’s lineup still looks unlikely to be much better than average, they’ve certainly addressed the lack of punch.
Chapman continues to make hard contact and has remained an above-average offensive performer even as the bat has slumped from his years as a down-ballot MVP odds candidate. A possible full season from Michael Conforto should help. Soler brings serious thump, and the Giants have more than enough outfielders to keep him at DH. And Lee destroyed the baseball in Korea. As such, he brings above-average projections to the table, though there’s always the possibility of overseas imports flopping against MLB pitching.
Along with incumbents who are mostly in their primes, the Giants have a pretty solid lineup this time around.
The only truly feeble bats belong to C Patrick Bailey and SS Nick Ahmed. They at least bring premier defense to the table. Bailey may be the league’s best. Lee should add more premium up-the-middle defense. Between the additions of him and Chapman (and pushing Mike Yastrzemski to a corner), the Giants should feature strong glovework.
Pitching
Last year, the Giants attempted to cover for their lack of starting pitching by pushing a bevy of relievers into opener roles and riding a deep bullpen. The situation looks a little sunnier for 2024, thanks in part to the lack of market for unemployed ace Snell.
San Francisco was able to ink him to a short-term deal for a reasonable expense. Along with Logan Webb, a legitimate and durable ace, he’ll front the rotation for as long as he can stay healthy and continue plying his heavy-walks-and-whiffs approach.
Three capable arms back them up, though each comes with some serious questions.
Kyle Harrison is a premium prospect. The fly-heavy lefty throws too many fastballs (> 60%) and didn’t miss many bats. But he does have league-average projections and is at least in the right park to let the opposition lift the baseball. Unfortunately, the Giants likely can’t expect a full complement of starts, given he threw around 100 IP.
Alex Cobb has had three strong seasons in a row. He’ll be thrilled by the additions of Chapman and Ahmed, given the quality of the infield defense behind him of late and the fact he coaxes tons of grounders (57.6% in 2023). However, he’s coming off hip surgery. It doesn’t look like he’ll be ready for Opening Day.
Jordan Hicks has been a good reliever for years, but the Giants hope to convert him to starting. Given his walk rate and two-pitch approach, that doesn’t seem terribly likely to work.
The good news is if anything goes wrong, the Giants can probably just lean into last year’s approach as the bullpen remains deep and strong provided everyone gets healthy. Camilo Doval is a star closer, and the brothers Rogers provide ample set-up juice.
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Possible Bets On Giants Odds
The Dodgers look like a juggernaut and I already noted when discussing Dodgers odds that if I were making a divisional bet there, I’d probably just lay it with them.
But I actually think the Giants are the most realistic challenger to them in the NL West. I’m low on Diamondbacks odds and the Padres just have too many holes for me to think it’s realistic that they overcome them. If I was going to take a longshot, the Giants, with their strong pitching and solid lineup, look like the best of the bunch. The Giants have an intriguing base of talent, and shortstop looks like the only real hole on the roster.
I’m a bit sad because the Snell pickup nixed a bet I was planning to make. DraftKings Sportsbook had the Giants -115 to outperform the Tigers this year, but that’s off the board now.
If hunting for a longshot punt, I don’t think the Giants are the worst option in World Series odds at . I’m not excited enough to take the plunge, but I think the spending here was pretty astute, enough so that I wouldn’t really be shocked if the Giants were a fringe contender this year.
I’ve also bet the Giants to make the playoffs at plus odds. Best of luck if you decide to bet on the Giants odds this spring.
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