Brian Dutcher’s fifth-seeded Aztecs face Alabama, the No. 1 overall seed in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, tonight at 6:30 p.m. ET on TBS in the South Regional semifinal. In this article, we’ll break down what you need to know about San Diego State Final Four odds (), including whether or not the Matt Bradley & Co. are worthy of their price tag on the March Madness odds board.
San Diego State Final Four Odds
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Why SDSU Can Upset Alabama
As of Friday afternoon, the Crimson Tide are the biggest March Madness futures liability at BetMGM Sportsbook. But they’re in for an arduous test in the Sweet 16.
The Aztecs not only boast the No. 1 adjusted defensive efficiency over the last two months (via Bart Torvik), yet they’re also an upper-echelon transition defense while forcing a top-105 takeaway percentage. Both of those categories are concerns for Alabama’s turnover-prone ball handlers, relying on their uptempo attack to manufacture clean attempts from behind the arc.
Should Dutcher’s crew find a way to implement its methodical tempo, it will aid its chances of producing open perimeter shots versus Oats’ drop coverage. Relying on San Diego State’s offense is another story, as Bradley, Darrion Trammell, and the rest of their “marksmen” have compiled a 27.8% clip from distance in the Big Dance. However, the Aztecs are bound to attain some positive regression in this department.
Moreover, five-star freshman Brandon Miller is still dealing with a groin injury, which reportedly isn’t 100% yet. The Tide are already a high-variance team, generating the eighth-highest 3-point attempt rate across D-I. If Miller’s floor-spacing inefficiency repeats itself (22.7% shooting in the NCAA tournament), then Nate Oats’ inexperienced bunch will be ripe for the picking.
Betting Guide: San Diego State Odds vs. Alabama
Aztecs Futures Odds Or Moneyline Rollover?
If San Diego State upends Alabama, my model makes it a very small underdog to No. 6 seed Creighton in the regional final. Therefore, a moneyline rollover strategy, at roughly +790, represents a slightly better payday.
With the uncertainty regarding the Bluejays’ matchup against 15-seed Princeton, though, it pushes me back towards the initial approach.
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