San Diego Padres Odds: MLB Win Totals, Projections, Possible Bets
Welcome to TheLines.com’s 2024 Spring Training preview of MLB odds. We’ll preview every team’s 2024 season with a focus on MLB win totals and World Series odds. We’ll evaluate each team’s roster and see if there are any wagers worth considering. Today, we’ll look at San Diego Padres odds. Click this link to catch up on our other 2024 MLB betting previews.
The Padres were a huge disappointment in 2023, though it had more to do with bad luck than poor play. With the ownership situation in flux, mandates from on high forced the Padres to shed a huge amount of talent, including a Cy Young winner and a perennial MVP favorite.
Does San Diego still have enough to put forth a competitive season in 2024?
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Padres Odds: An Overview And What The Projections Say
First, let’s compare the market on Padres odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- 2023 wins: 82
- Market wins: /
- FanGraphs wins: 82.8
- Baseball Prospectus wins: 79.9
Note that the Baseball Prospectus projection does not account for the Dylan Cease trade, so mentally adjust that up to at least a couple of wins. That means all of the prognostications are in line that this is essentially a .500 team.
And yeah, about that trade. After losing a staggering 20 MLB free agents, which doesn’t even include the traded-away Juan Soto, the Padres are left trying to piece together their team using some fiscal responsibility after years of free spending. Naturally, the talent level has taken a hit. Bringing Cease into the fold shows San Diego is still trying to do the best it can with the resources at its disposal.
It’s all an unfortunate follow-up to a season in which the Padres played at a 91-win level but got spectacularly unlucky. Only the Royals had worse fortunate than the Pads in the sequencing department.
Evaluating The Padres Roster
Bats And Defense
The Padres had a good but inconsistent offense in 2023. Unfortunately, Juan Soto, the engine of that offense, has moved on to New York to pair with Aaron Judge.
At the top, things still look pretty good, though. Granted, Jake Cronenworth turned into a pumpkin last year and will represent a massive sinkhole at first if he can’t rebound. But, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Ha-Seong Kim still make for the core of a solid offense.
Catcher Luis Campusano looks quite promising as well after he smacked the ball in a limited sample last year.
The problems start after that, and they illustrate an appalling lack of depth on this roster. Non-roster invites are currently slated to occupy a couple of the remaining lineup spots. Another is occupied by Jurickson Profar, he of the -2 fWAR last season. Not great.
The defense was a notable plus for the Friars last season and should remain so this year. The aforementioned trio of Bogaerts, Machado, and Kim puts premium defenders all over the infield. Tatis Jr. was a revelation in his first season manning RF, where he racked up eye-popping numbers thanks largely to his incredible throwing.
However, even here, there could be issues. Profar was a disaster in LF, and the team traded away CF Trent Grisham without a plan to replace him. Grisham’s bat frustrated at times, but he was an elite fly chaser.
Top prospect Jackson Merrill is currently slated to take his place. That sounds promising, except for the fact that Merrill is a shortstop by trade. Scouts believe he has the athleticism to play center, but it’s anyone’s guess how he takes to the finer points of the job.
Pitching
Starting pitching was another strong suit for San Diego as the staff landed top five in fWAR. However, the unit has been completely overhauled. Gone are Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha. They’ll take 82 starts and more than half of the team’s pitching WAR with them, not to mention Snell’s win in Cy Young odds.
Yu Darvish is still around, but he’s quite long in the tooth, and he is entering his age-37 season. He just had career worsts in FIP, xERA, and swinging strike rate. The Japanese hurler still projects as a positive contributor, but the cliff looms.
The situation isn’t hopeless, though. Joe Musgrove is very good, and Dylan Cease has been involved in Cy Young conversations in recent years while being exceptionally durable (97 starts since 2021). Michael King seemed to take to starting quite well when he transitioned as a Yankee.
Still, there’s a lack of depth with no reliable fifth starter, no prospects ready to step up, and not a lot available from veterans in the minors. The unit being entirely right-handed isn’t great either.
The bullpen looks below average. Statcast loved closer Robert Suarez, but he’s 33 and doesn’t miss enough bats to profile as a good high-leverage option. None of the players setting him up looks very inspiring, aside from Japanese import Yuki Matsui. The lefty has projections befitting a late-inning option, so he may emerge as the eventual closer.
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Possible Bets On Padres Odds
Because of their interesting franchise trajectory — all in to win before quickly pivoting into selling after owner Peter Seidler died — the Padres have wound up with an odd stars-and-scrubs roster. There are some very good players but also gaping holes in the outfield, at first, and in the pen. There’s also a lack of depth throughout.
That means the Padres have a pretty wide range of outcomes. They could approach 90 wins if everything comes together, but if some of the stars get hurt, things could go south very quickly.
Ultimately, I’m guessing they land somewhere near their win total, but a lot depends on what the franchise wants to do going forward. Without a clear path forward, it’s hard to say where they go from here.
I don’t see much of interest in Padres odds and don’t expect them to mount a serious challenge to the Dodgers in the NL West, though they’re certainly due some better fortune.
Best of luck if you decide to bet on the Padres odds this spring.
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