A key divisional battle in the NFC West is showcased on Monday Night Football. The Los Angeles Rams (8-4) visit the NFC-leading Arizona Cardinals (10-2) in their second showdown of the season. This article will lay out same game parlay strategy for this game using game theory and film.
The first iteration saw Kyler Murray and the Cardinals posted 37 points and came away with the win in L.A. Can bettors expect a similar outcome in Week 14? We’ll take a look below.
A same game parlay is when a bettor combines two or more bets in the same game in order to increase their potential payout. Check out our SGP strategy page for more tips and best practices.
Find a complete betting preview here for Rams vs. Cardinals.
Rams – Cardinals Same Game Parlay Breakdown
The Kliff Kingsbury system
How do you counteract a generational interior defensive lineman jamming up the middle of the field? You go around him– seriously. Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, and why it earned him an NFL head coaching gig despite a sub-0.500 career mark at Texas Tech, relies on getting his weapons out in space while also keeping the defensive line true.
The concept sounds simple because it is. The Cardinals run more screen and flare passes than anyone in football. Screens aren’t a Kingsbury invention, but they’re so effective in Arizona because of Kyler Murray’s threat as a runner. Instead of bailing, defensive linemen have to keep an eye on Murray. Kingsbury often keeps them honest by faking QB draws and other looks.
There’s a ton of nuance in this system, but that’s the gist. If you’re interested in the entire system and how it works on a minute level, I highly recommend this breakdown.
It’s also a perfect system for versatile running back James Conner. It’s why Kingsbury’s signed him in the offseason and involved him as heavily as he has this season.
His passing scheme also has a lot of flexibility despite really only a handful of different play calls existing. Receivers stem their routes differently depending on the actions of the defender. Again, not a novel concept, but having threats like DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green makes this offense incredibly hard to defend.
And, so far this season, no one’s effectively defended it.
Can the Cardinals fool Sean McVay twice?
The most dangerous part about this offense is that it doesn’t fool anybody. It just creates personnel and leverage problems for defenders who, before the snap, are already forced to make tough decisions. Does the cornerback lock up All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins and leave the flat responsibility to an outside linebacker? Or does he pass off Hopkins to space and hope Murray doesn’t hit him in the gap before the safety?
When facing a defense with as many individually talented players as the Rams, scheming leverage is the only way to go. This also isn’t the Rams defense of old led by Brandon Staley, and they’ve clearly taken a step back from last season.
In order to limit the big plays from Hopkins, McVay chose to shadow him with Jalen Ramsey. It sort of worked, with Ramsey (out tonight) only allowing one of four targets to be completed (Hopkins finished with three other receptions away from Ramsey). However, the focus on the big deep threat not only opened up the ground game– Arizona rushed for 216 yards as a team– but it also allowed six of seven targets to be completed to the running backs.
Same Game Parlay Strategy for Week 14
The first time around, the Cardinals scored 34 of their 37 points in the first three quarters– they were beyond capable of moving the football. Currently, their team total at FanDuel Sportsbook is listed at 26.5 points. It’s an Over the Rams have allowed in three of their last four outings with the sole exception being the Jaguars. It’s also a mark the Cardinals have hit in three of their last four with Murray on the field.
Over on the team total relies on the offensive system working well. When it works its best is when running backs are involved in the receiving game. A natural correlation is to lean over on Conner’s receiving props, be it receptions or yards.
Considerations for your SGP legs include:
- Cardinals over team total: 26.5
- James Conner over receiving props (receptions preferably, but yards if opportune)
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