How do notable absences to the Las Vegas Raiders and Dallas Cowboys’ receiving corps affect game flow? Below, we’ll look at each offense with and without their top receiving weapons and what effect that may have on same game parlay options. Check below for Thanksgiving risk-free SGP promos as well.
A same game parlay is when a bettor combines two or more bets in the same game in order to increase their potential payout. Check out our SGP strategy page for more tips and best practices.
Raiders – Cowboys Same Game Parlay Breakdown
The Receiver Effect
There’s a lot of notable receiving options that will be absent for this game. For Dallas, Amari Cooper (COVID/reserve) won’t play and CeeDee Lamb has to turn a short week to clear concussion protocol. For the purposes of same game parlay strategy, we need to assume neither player will be available to the Cowboys. On the other side, the Raiders are of course without Henry Ruggs III.
The bottom line is: Las Vegas’ offense has been severely hindered since Ruggs’ release. While it might be an uncomfortable study, Derek Carr has dropped from a 12:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 101.2 passer rating to 4:4 and an 85.9 passer rating. Darren Waller is hauling in over 24% of Carr’s completions over the three game losing streak. While Ruggs’ absence certainly can’t be pegged as causation, the correlation is very much there. To top it off, the Raiders dropped from 25.7 points per game to 14.3.
The Cowboys saw a similar situation in Week 11 when Lamb went down early in the game. Dak Prescott completed just 52.9% of his passes to the remaining receivers, Michael Gallup (10 targets, five receptions) and Cedrick Wilson (seven targets, four receptions), and tossed two interceptions. Prescott was indecisive without his top two receiving weapons, which was made worse when Ezekiel Elliott tweaked his ankle.
The most staggering indicator of how badly Prescott struggled comes via his adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A, per Pro Football Reference). He recorded a season-low 2.9 AY/A– 73.6% below his season average of 8.0. Even against the Broncos, a game where the Cowboys’ offense was rendered ineffective, Prescott posted 6.0 AY/A.
What the lines indicate about this game
The over/under as of Monday afternoon was 51 points. That’s a steep decline from the look-ahead point total, which was set at 54.5 points.
With uncertainty surrounding the health of Lamb and Cooper, player props may not surface until closer to kickoff. The market is already ahead of the curve on the point total, but 51 still seems too high for teams that have been stuffed under 17 points in five of their last six combined games.
However, with a point total still over 50, a number that seems to have a healthy Lamb baked into it. It’s one of just two games with an over/under over 50 points.
Raiders – Cowboys Thanksgiving Same Game Parlay considerations
Should Lamb and Cooper not be able to go again, I anticipate Dallas leaning on Elliott and the ground game. The Raiders are 19th in explosive run rate allowed and 20th in run success rate allowed (41.6%). A high run rate correlates with lower point totals from each team.
Player prop legs to consider in this one include going under Prescott and Carr’s passing attempts and over on Elliott’s rushing attempts. Couple that with under the point total, and that’s the type of game I anticipate from this one.
- Raiders-Cowboys UNDER 51 points
- Dak Prescott OR Derek Carr UNDER passing props
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