A reeling Kansas City Chiefs (3-4) team hosts the New York Giants (2-5) on Monday Night Football. This may not have been pegged as a marquee game in August, but it’s become a pivotal must-win for the Chiefs, who are coming off a 27-3 drubbing against the Titans. This article lays out what bettors can expect from this game along with Giants – Chiefs same game parlay strategy.
A same game parlay is pairing two or more bets in the same game in order to increase the potential payout.
Monday Night Football Betting Guide: Giants at Chiefs
Giants – Chiefs Same Game Parlay Breakdown
The Chiefs are favored by points at home, a line that’s shortened from 12.5 points on the look-ahead line. The market has show support for the Giants, moving the spread temporarily from 10 points on Tuesday to as low as 8.5 points on Saturday morning.
Where bettors can find value in this game is on the back of a successful Chiefs offense, particularly Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes posts a passer rating of 135.8 (second) and is rated by PFF as the top passer against the blitz this season. The Giants like to blitz, dialing up heat on 26.9% of snaps this year (10th most).
Against the Panthers last week, the Giants were effective sitting in zone defense and sending four or five rushers most of the time. This season, Kansas City is 42.9% less effective in EPA against zone than against man (0.359 vs. 0.205). Given how the Titans ground the Chiefs’ offense to a complete halt last week, the Giants should theoretically try something similar, especially given their own success running zone with minimal blitzes last week.
The similarities between the Giants and Titans’ defensive game plans in Week 7 is uncanny, which was surely an emphasis of Andy Reid’s in preparation. Since 2018, the Chiefs are 10-3 straight up coming off a loss. Essentially, teams don’t often fool Reid twice.
New York was able to force a turnover and a safety on Carolina by disguising their coverages (typically man to zone). In a blowout loss to the Rams, the Giants found moderate defensive success running zone with a four-man rush– even recording two early sacks in the look.
Same Game Parlay Red Flags
Most would assume the Chiefs are capable of tearing up the Giants defense; they are sixth in yards per play this season (6.2) and first in success rate (53.5%). The Giants defense is average to below average as it pertains to EPA per play allowed (23rd) and success rate allowed (16th).
However, if the game plan from recent outings can be applied to this game, the Chiefs might encounter some problems. The Giants have picked off six passes this season (t-10th), while Mahomes leads the NFL in interceptions thrown through seven weeks (seriously).
Due to this, bettors should be cautious when using KC or over points as a leg of their same-game parlay. Also be cautious when adding Kansas City moneyline () as a parlay leg. Adding it to certain same game parlays can decrease implied probability by multiple percentage points while offering minimal gains in potential winnings.
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