Although Ravens at Dolphins may seem like an uneventful matchup because of Miami’s overall struggles, there are still plenty of viable options for your Thursday Night Football same game parlay. Let’s break down where the value lies in the betting market.
A same game parlay (SGP) is combining multiple bets from one game or team into a parlay to increase potential winnings.
Ravens At Dolphins: Same Game Parlay Analysis
Last week, the look-ahead line for this game was Ravens -6.5/7, but the betting market re-opened at Baltimore . We haven’t seen any movement on the number besides the vig fluctuating.
I wouldn’t back John Harbaugh’s team with the spread over a key number. That’s where the SGP comes into play, as I’d look to essentially tease the Ravens down to -1.5 as one of SGP legs.
Baltimore boasts the league’s fourth-highest pressure rate — in large part because of such a heavy blitz percentage (32.5%). The Dolphins present the worst pass-blocking offensive line across the NFL (via Pro Football Focus), so expect Jacoby Brissett to struggle when looking to pass.
Ravens defensive coordinator Don Martindale has also seen his back-seven improve in coverage since cornerback Jimmy Smith returned in Week 3, allowing the fourth-lowest dropback success rate over that span.
- SR showcases whether a play is successful if a team gains:
- 50 percent of the yards needed to move the chains on first down
- 70 percent of yards to gain on second down
- 100 percent of yards to gain on third or fourth down
Offensively, I’m targeting Ravens tight end Mark Andrews in the SGP. Andrews boasts the third-highest target share at his position — behind the Raiders’ Darren Waller and 49ers’ George Kittle. Miami is allowing an average of 65 receiving yards per game to tight ends, and Andrews should feast over the middle with a healthy Dolphins secondary focusing on Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins and Rashod Bateman.
You can bet a same game parlay of Baltimore -1.5 and Andrews over 50.5 receiving yards at +159 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
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