NFL Same Game Parlay Strategy: Potential Chargers at Jaguars SGP Picks

Written By Eli Hershkovich on January 14, 2023
sgp

As you’re handicapping Wild Card odds, let’s dissect my NFL same game parlay for Chargers at Jaguars for this Saturday night kickoff. If you’re unfamiliar with a SGP, it allows bettors place multiple bets, including props, from the same game into one parlay.

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Chargers at Jaguars SGP Strategy

Spread, Moneyline, Over/Under

For a full betting guide for this game, check out our Jaguars at Chargers preview.

SGP Leg 1: Where Is Jacksonville’s Defensive Blemish?

Over the last three contests, the Jaguars have yielded 7.3 points per game. They’re even yielding the 12th-fewest EPA per play overall. Combine those numbers with the notion that Mike Cawdwell’s defensive front should pressure Justin Herbert early and often, and things line up well for Jacksonville defensively on the surface.

But there’s more. The Jaguars place No. 24 in Football Outsiders’ variance category. This ranking emphasizes a group’s game-to-game consistency as judged by total DVOA rating for each game. Evidently, their consistency versus equal or superior competition — even with an elite corner in Tyson Campbell — is an issue. In particular, their pass defense is most vulnerable in nickel coverage.

With that in mind, Jacksonville is struggling to match up with tight ends, manufacturing the second-worst DVOA rating against that position. Enter Gerald Everett, who’s tied for the seventh-most targets per game (5.9) among tight ends.

Considering the Chargers boast the league’s second-highest passing rate, Everett may see his fair share of looks to go Over his receiving yards prop (). Mike Williams’ absence will certainly aid this notion. Let’s use it as the first leg of our NFL same game parlay.

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SGP Leg 2: LA’s Leaky Run Defense

The Chargers’ inability to impede opposing ground attacks has plagued Brandon Staley’s team during his first two seasons. This unit ranks No. 29 across the NFL in both EPA per carry and rush DVOA, respectively. Although the Jaguars’ offensive line grades below league average in regards to run blocking, this matchup sets well up for tailback Travis Etienne.

The NFL SGP, featuring Everett and Etienne rushing yards prop (Over ), showcases +145 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.

At the time of publish, Everett props were not posted in the FanDuel SGP machine; however, Everett 30+ receiving yards and Etienne 70+ rushing yards on BetMGM was +175. Good luck with your SGP and Wild Card weekend wagers.

Want More SGP Legs?

Head over to our Chargers vs. Jaguars props post for more potential matchups to consider in this one.

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