Same Game Parlay Strategy: Browns At Bills NFL Week 11

Written By Brett Gibbons on November 17, 2022
Browns Bills Same Game Parlay

The Cleveland Browns (3-6) visit the Buffalo Bills (6-3) Sunday, Nov. 20 in NFL Week 11 action. The Browns are road underdogs and the over/under is set at . Both numbers have been in flux as heavy snowfall is forecast in Buffalo. This article will go over Browns at Bills same game parlay strategy for this AFC showdown, including general SGP pointers and game-specific picks.

Keep up-to-date with TheLines for more SGP strategy, game previews, and everything you need to bet weekly NFL games.

Browns At Bills betting odds

Browns At Bills Same Game Parlay Promos

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Browns At Bills Player Props

Search for a player in our NFL Player Props Search tool below by typing their name into the search bar. To place a bet, click on the odds in the table.

Browns At Bills Betting News & Angles

Bills Vs. Browns Weather

The weather forecast for Orchard Park on Sunday is dry (scattered clouds) but windy (21 mph), with a high temperature of 26 degrees Fahrenheit (as of 1:23 PM on November 17). However, a blizzard is forecast to dump three to six feet of snow over the weekend, meaning logistics could force the game to be moved. Know the sportsbook house rules for Bills Browns bets if the game gets moved.

Bills Vs. Browns Injury Report

Buffalo Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Rodger SaffoldOGShoulderQuestionable65.8
Josh AllenQBElbowQuestionable64.9
Matt MilanoLBIllnessQuestionable62.5
Tremaine EdmundsLBGroinQuestionable59.6
Kaiir ElamCBAnkleQuestionable47.1
Gregory RousseauDEAnkleQuestionable35.3
Reggie GilliamFBIllnessQuestionable32.7
Jordan PhillipsDTIllnessQuestionable32.1
Tim SettleDTIllnessQuestionable31.1
Jake KumerowWRAnkleQuestionable27.2
Cam LewisCBForearmQuestionable25.6
Marquez StevensonWRFootQuestionable

Here’s more from TheLines Injury Expert Will Carroll on Josh Allen’s elbow injury.

Cleveland Injuries

PlayerPos.InjuryStatusAvg. Snap Count
Ethan PocicCAnkleQuestionable73.2
Jack ConklinOTFootProbable66.7
David NjokuTEAnkleQuestionable59.1
Wyatt TellerOGCalfQuestionable59.1
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLBKneeProbable47.7
Michael DunnOGBackQuestionable15.1

Bills Offense Vs. Browns Defense

Bills OffenseStats (Rank)Browns Defense
27.8 (2)Points/Gm26.4 (31)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.4 (17)
424.1 (1)Yards/Gm349.1 (17)
294.2 (2)Pass Yards/Gm218 (19)
129.9 (10)Rush Yards/Gm131.1 (23)
6.5 (1)Yards/Play5.8 (23)
7.6 (4)Yards/Pass7.1 (25)
5.3 (3)Yards/Rush4.8 (26)
52.4% (1)3rd Down %41.3% (18)
52.9% (21)Red Zone %58.8% (20)
18 (30)Turnovers8 (27)
18 (7)Sacks20 (18)

Browns Offense Vs. Bills Defense

Browns OffenseStats (Rank)Bills Defense
24.1 (10)Points/Gm16.8 (2)
0.4 (2)Points/Play0.3 (1)
375.9 (5)Yards/Gm319.8 (8)
217.1 (20)Pass Yards/Gm210.2 (14)
158.8 (5)Rush Yards/Gm109.6 (7)
5.6 (11)Yards/Play5.2 (8)
6.7 (12)Yards/Pass6.1 (6)
4.9 (6)Yards/Rush4.5 (13)
41.3% (12)3rd Down %40.4% (15)
60.6% (10)Red Zone %44.4% (3)
13 (18)Turnovers17 (3)
19 (10)Sacks27 (8)

Browns At Bills Same Game Parlay Strategy

As I laid out in my Browns at Bills betting preview, one of my favorite betting strategies in football is fading market overreaction to adverse weather. In this specific instance, the Browns offense isn’t one particularly affected by weather as they lean heavy into the run game. The point total has crashed from 47.5 points down to 41 and is inching back up, meaning that under normal circumstances, the over/under for this game is more likely to be closer to 47.5.

Should the snow be as heavy as forecast, Cleveland should turn almost exclusively to their backfield. I’m looking to add a Nick Chubb anytime TD prop or over rushing yards or attempts to this parlay, depending on what your sportsbook will allow.

Picking correlated legs in same game parlays is important. Correlated legs are pieces to your parlay that, if one leg cashes, it increases the likelihood of the other cashing. When Chubb rushes for 100 or more yards in his career, the Browns have scored under 20 points just six times (27 instances), but are 5-1 outright in those games. Essentially, the Browns go over their implied point total (17.75) 78% of the time when Chubb rushes for 100 yards.

If your sportsbook allows parlaying the Browns over their team total with over the point total, I’m happy to do so here.

The Bills are 19th in rushing EPA allowed and 14th in yards per rush allowed this season. Chubb can run on this team and I’m looking to fade the market overreaction to the weather early in the week.

Good luck with your Browns at Bills same game parlay!

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Brett Gibbons Avatar
Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons