The New England Patriots (8-4) and Buffalo Bills (7-4) slug it out on Monday Night Football for control of the AFC East. Below, we’ll look at same game parlay strategy for this game. The Patriots defensive scheme, Bill Belichick’s offseason spending spree, and weather factor into how bettors should approach this game.
A same game parlay is when a bettor combines two or more bets in the same game in order to increase their potential payout. Check out our SGP strategy page for more tips and best practices.
You can also find the full betting preview of Patriots at Bills here.
Patriots – Bills Same Game Parlay Breakdown
In his career, Josh Allen is 2-3 against the New England Patriots. In home games, he’s thrown zero touchdowns and four interceptions versus seven touchdowns and two picks in Foxborough. While past trends aren’t indicative of future performance, there is a track record of Bill Belichick’s defenses having success against Allen.
What New England does defensively
New England runs a lot of one-high safety shells and relies on the versatility of their players up front. Historically, Belichick sinks money into his linebackers (Dont’a Hightower, Matt Judon) rather than big money pass rushers. His schemes, which often use “bear” and odd fronts create situations to free up Hightower and other linebackers to generate pressure. The defense is pretty straightforward and doesn’t rely on a ton of exotic looks or blitz packages and rather lets his talented front seven make plays.
Running the football is difficult against one-high shells given the amount of bodies loaded up inside the tackle box. Buffalo isn’t widely known as a run-first team (18th in rush yards percentage), but they are notably 0-3 in games which they fail to run for 100 yards as a team.
Over the past five seasons, the Patriots are the third-best team against the pass by EPA and 2021 is no exception. The difficulty in passing comes from the successful pressure generated by linebackers and also the ability for players like Hightower, and safeties Kyle Duggar and Adrian Phillips’ ability to take away all sorts of athletes.
Belichick Counters His Latest Loss To Buffalo
Last season, Allen and the Bills handed Belichick his worst-ever home loss behind 320 yards and four touchdowns. Allen was not intercepted nor sacked in the game. Hightower, then-All Pro Stephon Gilmore, and a litany of other defensive starters did not play in the game for various reasons. Judon was not a part of the team at that time.
After being forced out of their typical defense and generating no pressure on Allen, Belichick broke the bank on front seven players. Allen has been terrific in his career escaping pressure, including when blitzed. However, the size and athleticism of guys like linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley are a designed counter for Allen’s escapability.
Same Game Parlay Strategy for Week 13
The final note of this game is the wind factor. Winds are forecast to be in excess of 25 miles per hour with higher gusts expected. This is a strong enough wind to affect passing games. The Patriots are a strong running team while the Bills are reliant on the pass.
Considerations for your SGP legs include:
- Patriots alternate spread: +3.5
- Josh Allen under 234.5 passing yards
Odds for this example SGP at FanDuel Sportsbook +247
Same Game Parlay Promo
Place $20+ in Same Game parlays at FanDuel Sportsbook for NFL Week 13 and get $10 in site bonus credit, regardless of whether the SGP wins or loses. Click here to bet now, then go to the Promos section of the FanDuel Sportsbook app and hit the Opt-In button under the Bet $20, Get $10 SGP promo.