The popularity of the same game parlay continues to grow, and sportsbooks are offering more promos to try one risk free for the Patriots at Falcons on Thursday Night Football. Let’s study what the odds suggest about projected game script to help you find a solid SGP option.
A same game parlay is when a bettor combines two or more bets in the same game in order to increase their potential payout. Check out our SGP strategy page for more tips and best practices.
What do the Patriots do defensively that may cause problems for the Falcons’ offense? What does that mean for Falcons team totals and player props?
We’ll uncover that below.
Patriots – Falcons Same Game Parlay Breakdown
Nothing fancy for the New England Patriots
The New England Patriots just don’t do anything exotic offensively or defensively. When they have the ball, the Patriots line up and run it. They complement that effective run game with ultra-decisive Mac Jones. Jones has one of the faster releases in the NFL and an incredible processing speed for a rookie. Like his predecessor, Jones throws accurate balls on timing routes.
Defensively, the Patriots line up in a 4-3 base look with little disguise. Against the Browns and Panthers in the past two weeks, the Patriots didn’t blitz very often, relying on tight coverage to generate what sacks they came down with. Their blitz rate is in the bottom-third in the NFL on the season (22.5%).
In short, New England allows their gap-sound defenders to win one-on-one battles and force opponents into mistakes. They are tied for fourth on the season in takeaways, but that number is slightly helped along by their turnover-prone cast of opponents (Zach Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield).
What Bill Belichick’s defense is known for is taking away a team’s top option. Whether it be via bracketing with athletic players like Kyle Dugger or shadowing them with JC Jackson, Belichick will make sure your number-one option isn’t a threat.
Why that’s a problem for the Atlanta Falcons
When an opposing team can line up in base looks and not disguise coverages, it means that you can’t simply out-scheme them. Arthur Smith has been a terrific schemer during his time as the offensive coordinator with the Tennessee Titans. He’s brought creativity to the Falcons’ offense, highlighted by his versatile usage of Cordarrelle Patterson.
Patterson– who is a game-time decision for this game– is the cog that turns the Falcons’ offense. Without him, they were stifled against the Cowboys to the tune of three points (he left the game in the first half). Should Patterson be a no-go, rookie Kyle Pitts immediately becomes the Falcons’ top option; some would argue their only option.
The Patriots this season have been exceptional at limiting tight ends, allowing the third-fewest yards and the fewest receptions to this point in the season.
Over the past three outings, Pitts has been held to four or fewer receptions (despite at least six targets). In those games, the Falcons are 1-2 outright and score an average 14.3 points per game. Comparatively, the three previous games to that, Pitts averaged 6.7 receptions (on nine targets) and the Falcons averaged 29 points per game.
Tying it all together
Players like the aforementioned Kyle Dugger (6′ 2″), JC Jackson (6′ 1″), and Jalen Mills (6′ 0″) will certainly be used to take the athletic Pitts out of the repertoire for Matt Ryan. Pitts’ game prop for receiving yards is 61.5 (U -114) at FanDuel Sportsbook, a number I’m comfortable taking under.
The Falcons’ game prop for team points is already at a low 19.5. Instead of rolling the dice on an unfavorable number like that, taking under the game total () feels like a safer bet. As it was laid out before, games in which Pitts underperforms are typically low-point outings for the Falcons. When a team struggles to pull their weight on the scoreboard is when the under becomes savory.
Should Patterson be ruled out, player props on Mike Davis may become available. Depending on the number, special consideration to betting under Davis’ rushing prop should be given.
Ultimately, this isn’t shaping up to be an exciting offensive matchup for the Falcons. Fading their player props and team performance is the best way to go here.
Potential Same Game Parlay
- Under 47 Points
- Kyle Pitts Under 61.5 Receiving Yards
- Same Game Parlay Odds: +230
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