Saints vs. Lions: NFL Betting Preview – October 4, 2020

Posted By Staff on September 30, 2020 - Last Updated on October 2, 2020

The 1-2 Detroit Lions are 4.5-point underdogs heading into their matchup Sunday against the 1-2 New Orleans Saints. The contest has a point total of 54.5.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of October 2. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings.com.

Betting Information:

Total Facts

  • Saints games have gone over 54.5 points on all three occasions this season.
  • Detroit’s contests have gone over 54.5 points once this year (33.3% of games).
  • The two teams average a combined 52.6 points per contest– 1.9 fewer than the total.
  • These two teams combine to give up 62 points per game, which is 7.5 greater than the total for this matchup.
  • Saints games average 60.7 total points this year– 6.2 higher than the over/under.
  • Games involving the Lions this year have averaged 54 points per game, a half-point less than the over/under for this contest.
  • The Lions are the NFL’s 21st-highest scoring team this season compared to the eighth-ranked Saints.
  • Detroit ranks 26th in points allowed this season, while New Orleans ranks 27th.
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Saints Betting Insights

  • New Orleans’ games have hit the over in all three outings this season.
  • New Orleans has a losing 1-2 record against the spread this season.
  • The Saints have an even 1-1 record ATS when playing as at least four-point favorites.

Lions Betting Insights

  • Two Detroit’s three games this year have gone over the point total (66.7% of its opportunities).
  • Detroit has put together a losing 1-2 record against the spread.

Saints vs Lions: Last 5 Meetings

  • Detroit has won against New Orleans three times in the past five matchups.
  • Detroit has scored four fewer points than New Orleans in their past five games.
Saints vs Lions: Last Five Meetings
Date Home Team Total Yards Result
10/15/2017 Saints 379-347 NO 52-38 NO
12/4/2016 Saints 422-369 DET 28-13 DET
12/21/2015 Saints 399-396 NO 35-27 DET
10/19/2014 Lions 408-344 NO 24-23 DET
12/4/2011 Saints 31-17 NO

When the Saints Have the Ball

  • The Saints average 29.3 points per game this year and the Lions allow 30.7– within 1.4 points of each other.
  • When they score 29.3 or more points, New Orleans is 1-1 and 1-1 against the spread.
  • When the Detroit defense allows 30.7 points or fewer this year, the Lions have pieced together a 1-1 overall record and a 1-1 record against the spread.
  • The Lions defense allows 409.3 yards per game– 45.3 yards more than the 364 the Saints offense has averaged per contest. On average, the Saints gain six yards per play and the Lions give up 6.3.
  • In contests where New Orleans hits their average in yardage, they are 0-2 against the spread and 0-2 overall.
  • When Detroit allows fewer total yards to opposing offenses than their season average, they are 1-1 against the spread and 1-1 overall this season.
  • The Lions have allowed 172.3 rushing yards per game in 2020, compared to the 105.3 yards the Saints offense averages on the ground per contest.
  • When New Orleans gains at least a combined 105.3 rushing yards this season, they are 0-2 overall and 0-2 against the spread.
  • This season, when the Detroit defense allows opponents to pick up less than 172.3 yards on the ground, they are 1-1 against the spread and 1-1 overall.
  • The Saints have turned the ball over 0.7 times per game this season, while the Lions have averaged one takeaway per contest.
  • In games where they don’t turn the football over this season, New Orleans is 1-0 overall and 1-0 against the spread.
  • Detroit’s record this season when they force more than 1 turnover: 1-0 ATS, 1-0 overall

When the Lions Have the Ball

  • The Lions average eight fewer points per game (23.3) than the Saints surrender (31.3).
  • When Detroit scores at least 23.3 points, they are 1-0 against the spread and 1-0 overall.
  • This season, New Orleans is 1-1 ATS and 1-1 overall in games when it holds opponents to 29.3 or fewer points.
  • The Lions rack up only 0.4 more yards per game (351.7), than the Saints allow per contest (351.3).
  • On average, the Lions pick up 5.5 yards per play, while the Saints allow 5.3 per play.
  • In games New Orleans holds its opponents to 351.3 or fewer yards, they have a 1-0 record ATS and a 1-0 record overall.
  • The Lions rush for 105.7 yards per game– 5.7 more yards per game than the 100 the Saints allow per outing.
  • Detroit has a 0-1 ATS record and a 0-1 overall record when the team runs for at least 105.7 yards.
  • New Orleans is 1-1 against the spread and 1-1 overall when holding opponents to 100 rushing yards or less.
  • This year, the Lions turn the ball over 0.7 times per game– 0.6 fewer turnovers per game than the Saints force on average (1.3).
  • Detroit is 1-0 against the spread and 1-0 overall when it turns the ball over 0.7 or fewer times.
  • When it forces 1.3 or more turnovers, New Orleans has a 1-0 record against the spread and a 1-0 record overall.

Saints Players to Watch

  • Drew Brees has thrown for 760 yards while completing 70.2% of his passes (73-of-104), with six touchdowns and one interception in three games this year (253.3 yards per game).
  • Alvin Kamara has 153 rushing yards on 31 carries (51 yards per game) and three touchdowns. He also averages 95 receiving yards per game– grabbing 27 passes for 285 yards and three touchdowns.
  • In three games in 2020, Latavius Murray has run for 120 yards on 30 carries (40 ypg).
  • Tre’Quan Smith has chipped in with 132 yards on 10 receptions. He has been targeted 14 times and averages 44 receiving yards per game.
  • Jared Cook has caught nine passes on 15 targets for 114 yards and a touchdown, averaging 38 yards per game in three games.
  • Demario Davis has recorded two sacks, three TFL, and 21 tackles over three games.
  • Malcolm Jenkins has 22 tackles, two TFL, and one sack.
  • Marcus Williams has one interception and has tacked on 12 tackles and one pass defended three in games this season.

Lions Players to Watch

  • Matthew Stafford has thrown for 811 yards, five touchdowns, and two picks this year. He’s compled 62.3% of his passes (66-of-106) and averages 270.3 yards per game.
  • Adrian Peterson leads the Lions with 209 rushing yards (69.7 yards per game) on 43 carries in his first three games with the Lions.
  • Kerryon Johnson adds 62 rushing yards on 18 carries (20.7 yards per game) and a touchdown on the ground over the course of three games in 2020.
  • T. J. Hockenson has been targeted 16 times for 13 catches, 171 yards (57 ypg) and a touchdown in three games this season.
  • Marvin Jones Jr. has also contributed with 11 catches for 129 yards and one touchdown in three games this year. He has been targeted 17 times and puts up 43 receiving yards per game.
  • Danny Amendola has caught eight passes on 18 targets for 120 yards, averaging 40 yards per game.
  • Trey Flowers has one sack, one TFL, and nine tackles over three games.
  • This season, Tracy Walker has totaled 20 tackles and two TFL.
  • Duron Harmon has one interception, 14 tackles, and three passes defended three in games this season.

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