Saints vs. Buccaneers: NFL Betting Preview – September 13, 2020

Written By Staff on September 9, 2020 - Last Updated on September 10, 2020
NFL Week 16

NFC South opponents square off when the New Orleans Saints (0-0) host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) on Sunday, September 13. New Orleans is favored by 3.5 points and the contest has a point total of 49.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings Sportsbook as of September 8, 2020, 1:51 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings.

Saints vs. Buccaneers odds

Total Facts

  • In 2019, New Orleans and its opponents combined to score more than 49 in eight games (50% of matchups).
  • In 12 games last season, the Buccaneers combined with their opponents to go over 49 points (75%).
  • The total for this matchup is 8.2 points fewer than the combined scoring average of the two teams for last season (57.2).
  • Last season, the opponents of these two teams scored a combined 49.4 points per game, 0.4 more than the points total in this matchup.
  • The over/under in this matchup is 0.9 points more than the average total in last season’s Saints contests (48.1).
  • The average total for Buccaneers games last season was 56.7 points, 7.7 more than this game’s over/under.

Saints Betting Insights

  • New Orleans had an 11-6 record against the spread (ATS) last year.
  • The Saints had an ATS record of 6-2 when playing as at least 3.5-point favorites last season.
  • Nine of New Orleans’ 17 opportunities last year went over the point total.

Buccaneers Betting Insights

  • Tampa Bay and its opponents hit the over in 75% of games last year.
  • Tampa Bay’s record ATS last season was 5-9-2.
  • When facing a spread of +3.5 or greater last year, the Buccaneers failed to cover in two games out of three chances.
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Saints vs Buccaneers: Last Five Meetings

  • Against Tampa Bay, New Orleans has collected three wins over the past five games.
  • The Saints’ record ATS is a 2-0 in the last two times they have played the Buccaneers (both in 2019).
  • Tampa Bay has put up 23 fewer points than New Orleans in their past five games.

When the Saints Have the Ball

  • The Saints’ 28.6 points scored per game and the Buccaneers points allowed (28.1) were within 0.5 points of each other.
  • In games where New Orleans scored at least 28.6 points last season, they were 10-1 overall and 8-2 ATS.
  • When Tampa Bay allowed 28.1 points or fewer last year, they were 5-3 overall and 3-3-1 ATS.
  • The Bucs’ defense surrendered an average of 343.9 yards per game last season– 30 yards fewer than the 373.9-yard average from the Saints’ offense.
  • New Orleans’ record last season when they reached their season average in total yards: 8-1 overall and 6-2 ATS.
  • When the Buccaneers’ defense allowed less than their season average for total yards last season, they were 3-3-2 ATS and 4-5 overall.
  • Tampa Bay allowed opponents to average 73.8 rushing yards per game in 2019; that’s compared to the 108.6 yards the Saints offense averaged on the ground.
  • When New Orleans rushed for at least 108.6 yards last season, they were 9-1 overall and 7-2 ATS.
  • Tampa Bay was 4-3-2 ATS and 6-4 overall in games where their opponents rushed for fewer than 73.8 yards.
  • The Saints turned the ball over 0.5 times per game last season, while the Buccaneers averaged 1.8 takeaways per contest.
  • New Orleans was 7-1 overall and 7-1 ATS last season when they didn’t turn the football over.
  • When they forced more than 1.8 turnovers in a game last season, Tampa Bay was 4-2-1 ATS and 5-3 overall.

When the Buccaneers Have the Ball

  • The Buccaneers scored 7.3 more points per game last year (28.6) than the Saints allowed (21.3).
  • When Tampa Bay recorded at least 28.6 points last season, it went 3-3-1 ATS and 5-2 overall.
  • New Orleans had an 8-2 record ATS and a 10-1 record overall in games when it gave up 28.6 points or less last season.
  • The Buccaneers averaged 397.9 yards per game in 2019– 64.8 more yards than the 333.1 the Saints gave up per matchup.
  • When New Orleans held its opponents to 333.1 yards or less last year, it had a 7-1 record ATS and a 7-1 record overall.
  • Last season, the Bucs racked up 95.1 yards per game on the ground– 3.7 more yards per game than the Saints allowed per outing (91.4).
  • Last year, Tampa Bay went 1-5-1 ATS and 3-6 overall in games they ran for at least 95.1 yards.
  • New Orleans went 8-0 ATS and 8-0 overall when holding opponents to 91.4 rushing yards or less last season.
  • The Buccaneers turned the ball over 1.2 more times per game last year (2.6) than the Saints forced turnovers on average (1.4).
  • In 2019, Tampa Bay finished 4-3 ATS and 5-3 overall when it turned the ball over 2.6 times or less.
  • When it forced 1.4 or more turnovers last season, New Orleans put together a 5-0 record ATS and a 5-0 record overall.

Saints Players to Watch

  • Alvin Kamara rushed for 797 yards on 171 attempts (56.9 yards per game) while scoring five touchdowns in 14 games a season ago. He also averaged 38.1 receiving yards per game, grabbing 81 passes for 533 yards and one touchdown.
  • In 2019, Latavius Murray rushed for 637 yards on 146 carries (39.8 ypg), with five rushing touchdowns over the course of 16 games.
  • Last season, Michael Thomas caught an NFL-record 149 passes (on 186 targets) for 1,725 yards (107.8 yards per game) and nine touchdowns in 16 games.
  • Emmanuel Sanders caught 66 catches for 869 yards and five touchdowns with Denver and San Francisco. He was targeted 96 times and put up 51.1 receiving yards per game over 17 matchups last year.
  • Tight end Jared Cook caught 43 passes on 65 targets for 705 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 50.4 yards per game in 14 contests in 2019.
  • Defensive end Cameron Jordan recorded 15.5 sacks, 16.0 TFL and 49 tackles last year.
  • In 16 games, linebacker Demario Davis racked up 112 tackles, 10.0 TFL, four sacks, and one interception.
  • Safety Marcus Williams picked off four passes while adding 52 tackles and 13 passes defended over 15 games a season ago.

Buccaneers Players to Watch

  • Tom Brady threw for 4,057 yards while completing 60.8% of his passes (373-of-613), with 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 16 games with the Patriots last year (253.6 yards per game).
  • Ronald Jones took 172 carries for 724 rushing yards a season ago (45.3 yards per game) while scoring six touchdowns in 16 games. He also caught 31 passes for 309 yards (19.3 receiving yards per game).
  • In 2019, LeSean McCoy totaled 465 rushing yards on 101 carries (35.8 yards per game), with four touchdowns on the ground before signing with Tampa Bay in the offseason.
  • In 14 games last season, Chris Godwin was targeted 119 times and had 86 catches for 1,333 yards (95.2 ypg) with nine touchdowns.
  • Mike Evans also contributed with 1,157 yards on 67 catches with eight touchdowns. He was targeted 118 times and averaged 89.0 receiving yards per game in 13 matchups last year.
  • Over 14 games in 2019, O.J. Howard caught 34 passes on 54 targets for 459 yards and one touchdown, averaging 32.8 receiving yards per game.
  • Last season, Shaquil Barrett piled up an NFL-best 19.5 sacks, 19.0 TFL, 58 tackles, and one interception in 16 games.
  • In 16 games, linebacker Lavonte David totaled 120 tackles, 10.0 TFL, one sack, and one interception.
  • Corner Sean Murphy-Bunting intercepted three passes while adding 44 tackles, 1.0 TFL, one sack, and eight passes defended over 16 games a season ago.
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