2023 Ryder Cup Odds: Player Rankings, Best Bets, USA vs. Europe Predictions
The most electric spectacle in golf comes around every two years, and we are now just days away from tee-off at the 2023 Ryder Cup in Rome, Italy. The Europeans have the home-course advantage at Marco Simone Golf & Country Club, which has led to a significant shortening of Team Europe’s price in Ryder Cup odds since the summer. Marco Simone is a new site on the DP World Tour schedule for the Italian Open since 2021. Its quirky assortment of short par-4s, thick and penal rough, and severe elevation changes should set the stage for a compelling and volatile match play event.
Match Play is a unique beast in golf betting, with subjective factors like momentum and gamesmanship often usurping the importance of tried and true analytics like course fit and leading form. It’s that “anything can happen” aura that draws so much intrigue to the Ryder Cup every two years. Given the volatility of this event, this article will pivot away from the typical deep-dive modeling analysis of the players and course, and instead look to uncover where the greatest betting edges are with what information is available on projected team pairings and individual player opportunities.
2023 Ryder Cup Odds: USA vs. Europe
Odds To Hoist The Trophy
PGA Tour • 2023 Ryder Cup
Who will lift the trophy?
Odds updated October 1st, 2023, at 4:26 am
PGA Tour • 2023 Ryder Cup
Odds updated December 9th, 2023, at 11:10 am
Ryder Cup futures are posted year-round and have featured Team USA as prohibitive favorites ever since their historic beatdown at Whistling Straits in 2021. All momentum has seemingly shifted in Team Europe’s favor since then, however, as the gap in betting odds is now razor-thin between Team USA and Europe.
The Europeans could have been had for around +200 this summer.
PLAYER power rankings
Before betting on the 2023 Ryder Cup, it’s best to understand how the composition of both team rosters stack up. In 2021, Team USA boasted a clear talent advantage, while Team Europe leaned on experience and continuity to counter. Two years later, the talent gap has narrowed considerably.
According to consensus Top Point Scorer odds, Europe features a top-heavy team, with three of the top-four favorites in the Top Point Scorer market. Conversely, its 12-man roster lacks the depth of Team USA’s, as Hojgaard, Lowry, MacIntyre, and Straka each rank bottom-four in my power rankings below.
Europe’s top-heavy talent should buoy its chances in the opening team play format but renders them vulnerable to being exposed in Sunday Singles.
Team Europe Projected Pairings
Perhaps the most interesting storyline surrounding the 2023 Ryder Cup is the mystery behind how Team Europe will pair up its teams. There’s no question Europe will depend on deploying McIlroy, Rahm, and Hovland as often as possible, but each lacks an obvious playing partner for Foursomes and Four-Ball. Ian Poulter, Sergio Garcia, and Paul Casey played alongside McIlroy, Rahm, and Hovland respectively at Whistling Straits, but with all three of the former left off the 2023 team, Europe will be forced to experiment with new pairings.
In a format that rewards continuity and camaraderie within pairings, these revolving pairings could become an area of concern for the Europeans.
Team USA Projected Pairings
Team USA, on the other hand, heads to Rome with a very clear core of pairings to confidently return to after a flawless execution at Whistling Straits. Xander Schauffele & Patrick Cantlay are a package deal in team match play. Justin Thomas & Jordan Spieth are a longstanding pairing as well. Collin Morikawa & Max Homa will be a new Ryder Cup duo but are expected to play predominantly together since establishing chemistry at the Zurich Classic and Presidents Cup. Scottie Scheffler will naturally favor his friend and Presidents Cup partner, Sam Burns.
With the remaining four players on the team, Brooks Koepka may well sub in for Sam Burns as Scheffler’s partner in Foursomes. The same could be expected of Rickie Fowler to spell Justin Thomas alongside Jordan Spieth if Thomas’ shoddy recent form continues in Rome. Harman and Clark lack obvious playing partners, but could conceivably play well alongside one another as a “Major Champion” Foursomes pairing.
MY GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
Ryder Cup Futures are tricky to bet, as we’re forced to do a great deal of speculating as to which pairings the captains will roll out, how much rest they’ll afford each player, and what adjustments will be made day-over-day. Oh, and match play also happens to be the most volatile format in golf to predict, with no certainty that the more talented player or team will win.
Be that as it may, I’ve assumed the role of captain for both Team USA and Team Europe to deploy what I believe are the best possible pairings, and my projected results of these forecasted matchups. As you’ll see, I expect a dead heat in team play through the first two days, with Team USA gaining separation in Sunday Singles by way of its depth.
my 2023 Ryder Cup bets
With all of these projected pairings in mind, these are my three favorite Ryder Cup Future bet values to consider before tee off in Rome this Friday.
Top Points Scorer: Jordan Spieth (+2200)
When it comes to the Top Points Scorer prop, the best ability is availability. There are a select few players from either side who can be depended on to play in all four Team Match Play matches, and I believe Spieth is one of them. Spieth’s experience is unrivaled on Team USA with a career Ryder Cup record of 8-7-3, and he dominated the Presidents Cup last September, going a clean 5-0-0.
Spieth is a natural duo with Justin Thomas, but if Thomas shows any doubts about his form, Spieth also has longstanding chemistry with Scottie Scheffler and Rickie Fowler. A true leader and utility player on the team, I see plenty of opportunity for Spieth’s name to be called often in Rome.
Top Rookie Scorer: Max Homa (+300)
If you believe that Sam Burns is attached at the hip with Scottie Scheffler throughout the first two days of team competition, then you’ll find some value on his number at +500. I, however, have a hard time believing Zach Johnson will anchor his best player to the last-man-on with Brooks Koepka watching from the sidelines.
So, once again betting on opportunity, I expect Max Homa to have the most chances to earn points alongside Collin Morikawa. While a Ryder Cup rookie, Homa impressed in his Presidents Cup debut, going 4-0-0, and has been in complete control of his game since the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Singles Day 3 Winner: USA (+100)
Team Europe can lean on its top-heavy talent to get by in team play, but the Europeans will be at a severe talent disadvantage when pitting its bottom six against Team USA’s bottom six. Match Play is a highly volatile format, but I’m betting on talent to win out over the course of 12 matches on Sunday.
USA’s bottom six of Spieth, Fowler, Thomas, Clark, Harman, and Burns could conceivably be favored in all six matches if paired against Aberg, Rose, Hojgaard, Lowry, MacIntyre, and Straka.
Best of luck betting Ryder Cup odds!
Ryder Cup TV Schedule
Thursday, September 28: 10 a.m.-1 p.m. ET (Opening Ceremonies on Golf Channel)
Friday, September 29: 1:30 a.m.-12 p.m. ET (USA)
Saturday, September 30: 1:30-3 a.m. ET (USA); 3 a.m.-12 p.m. ET (NBC, Peacock)
Sunday, October 1: 5:30 a.m.-1 p.m. ET (NBC, Peacock)
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