PGA Tour Odds: 2024 RSM Classic Preview at Sea Island Resort Seaside & Plantation Courses

The FedEx fall swing has reached its end, as the final full-field PGA Tour event of 2024 brings us to Sea Island, Georgia, for the RSM Classic. It may not be the grandest finale, but plenty is at stake this week as fringe tour players vie for status and exemptions for the season to follow. Let’s review key course info and odds for the 2024 RSM Classic.

We’ve seen a very repeatable formula for yearly contenders at the RSM Classic. Keep the ball in play off the tee, hit greens in regulation, and make putts. That’s the standard formula for most fall swing birdie-fests. But, if Sea Island has a unique identity, it’s its exposure to the wind and removal of any real distance advantage. This week, I’m looking most closely at players who excel in approach proximity from 100-175 yards, birdies or better gained, SG: TOT on comp short, easy, coastal courses, and SG: P (Bermuda).

Let’s get into the key facts and info about the Sea Island Resort Seaside and Plantation courses before betting on RSM Classic golf odds.

RSM CLASSIC ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Here are the favorites in RSM Classic odds. Scroll to the bottom of this post to compare odds for the entire field at betting sites in your state. And don’t forget to lock in the best sportsbook promo codes before making any wagers.

RSM CLASSIC PGA TOUR ODDS: FIELD AT A GLANCE

We’re not exactly going out with a bang here in the final event of the 2024 FedEx fall swing. However, the field in store for the RSM Classic has still shown a marked improvement over the international events in recent weeks. Ludvig Aberg headlines, making his long-anticipated return since undergoing meniscus surgery on his left knee in early September. It’s hard to believe Aberg is still chasing his first PGA Tour victory since his inaugural win here last year. But expectations for a repeat will be tempered as he looks to shake off the rust in his title defense.

Ten OWGR top-50 golfers will tee it up in Sea Island this week, making this one of the most competitive events of the 2024 FedEx fall swing. In addition to Aberg, Brian Harman, Sepp Straka, Austin Eckroat, JT Poston, Denny McCarthy, Davis Thompson, Chris Kirk, Lucas Glover, and Matt McCarthy headline as the favorites.

Sea Island, which sits midway between Savannah and Jacksonville, has been a hotbed for PGA Tour talent. This week’s field will be full of locals familiar with Sea Island Resort. Some notables include Harris English, Keith Mitchell, JT Poston, Kevin Kisner, Patton Kizzire, Brian Harman, Ben Griffin, Will Gordon, Andrew Novak, Davis Thompson, and Greyson Sigg.

Past RSM Classic champions are back in full force this week. Aberg, Adam Svensson, Robert Streb, Tyler Duncan, Austin Cook, Mackenzie Hughes, Kevin Kisner, Chris Kirk, and Tommy Gainey will all return to tee it up.

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INTRODUCTION TO SEA ISLAND RESORT

Sea Island Resort is a popular destination for amateur and professional golfers alike. It features two 18-hole courses, both of which will be used in rotation for the RSM Classic. The field of 156 will rotate between the Seaside and Plantation courses on Thursday and Friday. After the first two days, the top 65 and ties will advance. All remaining players will play the weekend on the Seaside Course.

As with Torrey Pines’ rotation of the North and South courses, players must capitalize on their one round on the Plantation Course this week. It plays to a scoring average of 1.6 under par, while Seaside averages 0.9 under par. Davis Love III led a renovation project in 2019 to help add a bit more bite to the Plantation Course. However, it still remains a layout upon which PGA Tour players have continued to feast. It is generally protected from the coastal winds and has four par 5s at just 7,060 yards in total.

The Seaside Course is the only one of the two equipped with ShotLink data, and three out of four rounds this week will be played there. So, we won’t focus much on Plantation beyond the baseline understanding that players can attack aggressively and stockpile birdies in easy scoring conditions.

How It Breaks Down

The Seaside Course stands at 7,005 yards as a par 70 with two par 5s, four par 3s, and 12 par 4s. Of those par 4s, 10 will play under 450 yards, which has led to a very repeatable track record from accurate players, particularly those who excel on approach from the sweet spot of 100-175 yards.

There is not a “beast” of a hole at Sea Island. The most difficult scoring hole is the 442-yard par-4 14th, which averages just 0.1 strokes over par. That means a continuation of easy scoring conditions is expected, with putting contests being the norm in the fall swing. In total, 15 holes feature a scoring average of even or below.

Sea Island’s best defense is, without a doubt, the wind, given its exposure to the Atlantic coastline. Wind is the most unpredictable weather condition, so it’s difficult to say how much of an influence that will have on the tournament at this week’s stage. However, referencing ball-striking performance on comparable short coastal courses has proven a strong indicator of success.

Traits And Recent Notable Facts

However you look to slice it, Sea Island Resort has one of the easiest layouts on the PGA Tour. It is relatively defenseless without intervention from extreme weather conditions. Over the last five years, it has ranked in the bottom five in course yardage, driving accuracy difficulty, putting difficulty, and around-the-green difficulty (from the bunkers and rough).

The fairways measure among the widest on the PGA Tour. But a steep penalty for wayward drives exists with water in play on 14 holes. This has favored more accurate drivers despite the wide landing areas. The Bermuda greens are large and fast at Sea Island, which has historically placed more of a premium on three-putt avoidance and favored strong long-term putters on pure Bermuda grass.

In short, it’s a bona fide second-shot course setup that will favor players strongest on approach from 100-175 yards who can keep a hot putter over four days.

SEA ISLAND RESORT SEASIDE AND PLANTATION COURSE SPECS

• Yards (SS): 7,005
• Yards (P): 7,060
• Par (SS): 70 (4x 3s / 12x 4s / 2x 5s)
• Par (P): 72 (4x 3s / 10x 4s / 4x 5s)
• Greens (both): Bermuda
• Architect (SS): Tom Fazio
• Architect (P): Davis Love III (2019 redesign)
• Historical cut line: -5
• Median four-round score: -7 (’22), -9 (’21), E (’20), -9 (’19), -7 (’18)
• Comp courses: Waialae CC, Pebble Beach, El Camaleon, Port Royal, Sedgefield CC, Harbour Town, TPC Summerlin, Stadium Course
• Recent winners: Ludvig Aberg -29 (’23), Adam Svensson -19 (’23) Talor Gooch -22 (’22), Robert Streb -19 (’21), Tyler Duncan -11 (’20)
• Hole-by-hole breakdown:

COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

The top 10 in this field in terms of total strokes gained at the RSM Classic is as follows: Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, Chris Kirk, Mackenzie Hughes, Matthew NeSmith, Zach Johnson, Robert Streb, Brian Harman, Tom Hoge, and Luke List. That list presents a very clear bias toward the Sea Island locals who are more familiar with these coastal Bermuda conditions.

Course Comps

Whenever we travel to a sub-7,200-yard course, we see the same usual suspects rise to the top of leaderboards. It’s always a good idea to start the weekly research by referencing performances on other recent short courses.

In my opinion, Waialae CC is the clear top comp course for Sea Island Resort. Unlike the other short courses, it is the only one that shares all the same characteristics: Bermuda grass, easy scoring conditions, open exposure to coastal winds, and high overlap of crossover performance.

In addition to Waialae CC, I’m looking to Harbour Town, Sedgefield CC, and Stadium Course as short Bermuda comps. From a short and coastal/windy perspective, I’ll also look to Pebble Beach, El Camaleon, Port Royal, and TPC Summerlin.

Combine performance across this list, and the top 10 players in comp course history here are Ludvig Aberg, Daniel Berger, Jacob Bridgeman, Hayden Springer, Michael Kim, Ryo Hisatsune, JT Poston, Davis Thompson, Bud Cauley, and Brian Harman.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER BEFORE BETTING RSM Classic ODDS

• SG: APP
• Prox: 100-175
• Fairways gained
• GIRs gained
• Birdies or better gained
• Par 4 scoring / P4: 400-450
• SG: P (Fast Bermuda)
• SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions)
• SG: T2G (<7,200 Yard Courses)
• Course and comp course history

It’s a fairly simple formula for success this week, so the ideal player pool I’m looking to focus on should rank above-average in course and comp course history, SG: APP, birdies or better gained, SG: TOT (easy scoring conditions), prox: 100-175, and weighted putting. Eleven players fit that criteria, and I’ll be interested in all of them when the odds come out on Monday. Davis Thompson, Daniel Berger, Seamus Power, Jacob Bridgeman, Keith Mitchell, Adam Svensson, Michael Kim, Ben Griffin, Nick Hardy, Andrew Putnam, and Kevin Yu fit the bill.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Andrew Novak

Like half the RSM Classic field this week, it is a homecoming for Sea Island native Andrew Novak. Unlike many of the other top players who play out of Sea Island, however, Novak has kept busy throughout the fall swing and is in as hot of form as any other player teeing it up this week.

Novak will make the short trip across the Atlantic Ocean from Bermuda after an inspired solo second-place finish. Port Royal Golf Club should be the perfect tune-up for Sea Island Resort. Both are sub-7,000-yard Bermuda-based layouts that sit exposed to the coastline and emphasize flighted approach shots.

There’s no question about Novak’s ball-striking form leading up to this event, as he has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in seven of his last nine starts. Results at the RSM Classic have been mixed for Novak, with a career-best T26 coming in 2021. That said, he’ll return in better form than ever before in 2024, with seven top-25 finishes over his last 10 starts. So I expect we’ll get an extra discount on Novak’s odds this week as he looks to sustain the momentum of back-to-back top-15 finishes.

2024 RSM classic: PLAYER POOL AND MODEL RESULTS

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m also looking their way in PGA Tour odds. I’ve broken the list by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.

Model Breakdown

In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: APP, SG: TOT (easy scoring conditions), birdies or better gained, and comp course history, followed by a more balanced mix of par-4: 400-450, prox: 100-175, SG: T2G (<7,200-yard courses), good drives gained and SG: P (L36 + Bermuda).

Model Favorites

This week, an interesting riser atop my model is rookie sensation Luke Clanton, who claims No. 1 honors. Clanton’s game closely resembles Ludvig Aberg’s this time last year, as both prolific college stars found immediate success at the professional level. Unlike Aberg, however, Clanton can be a bit more erratic off the tee. So this is not a spot I’m going out of my way to back him as he searches for his first career PGA Tour win.

After Clanton, the rest of my model’s top 10 features Doug Ghim, JJ Spaun, Davis Thompson, Daniel Berger, Seamus Power, Jacob Bridgeman, Lucas Glover, Ludvig Aberg, and Rico Hoey.

When the odds open on Monday, I’ll look to build a longer card of exposure, beginning with players like Davis Thompson, Lucas Glover, and Andrew Novak.

Check back later this week for more updates, and best of luck betting on RSM Classic odds!

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