MLB Picks: Why I Bet Royals Moneyline Vs. Yankees In ALDS Game 2 Tonight
After narrowly escaping with a win in ALDS Game 1 thanks in part to a blown call, the Yankees enter Game 2 against the Royals as pretty strong favorites in MLB playoff odds. Cole Ragans will take the mound for K.C. against Carlos Rodon for New York in a battle of lefties. Below I’ll explain why I bet the underdog here in my MLB picks.
The first pitch for Royals at Yankees is scheduled for 7:38 p.m. ET on TBS.
ALDS Game 2 Odds For Yankees vs. Royals Bets
Find the best odds for Game 2 at betting apps in your area below.
Cole Ragans Undervalued?
When Ragans first began breaking out, I quickly shifted my (low) opinion of him and began riding the young lefty to profit. This year, the market adjusted, and I haven’t been able to find as much value on Ragans. He pitched like an ace and he was priced like an ace. Rightfully so, as he turned in a season with 4.9 fWAR.
However, that may be changing here in Game 2. The market appears to have much more confidence in the Yankees in general than I do.
I’ve seen some discourse about Ragans struggling a bit down the stretch. Mostly, he walked more batters in his final few starts. Is he tiring under a workload that saw his innings jump by 50% over 2023? That’s certainly possible, but the underlying indicators don’t really give me cause for concern.
Ragans’ fastball velocity has held pretty steady, as he was north of 95 in four of his last five starts.
As far as the walks go, his peripheral stats don’t indicate any major issues are bubbling beneath the surface. His out-of-zone rate is normal, as is his chase rate. These are important predictors of BB%, especially chase rate.
Ragans also turned in a solid start against these Yankees in September (6 IP, 7-3 K-BB, 2 ER).
If the market is going to give me a discount on Ragans, I’m going to take it, especially after he demonstrated against Baltimore he can still dominate a top offense.
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Mo’s MLB Picks: Royals Moneyline (+130)
I said before the series in a YouTube spot with our own Eli Hershkovich that I liked the matchup of the Royals’ lefties against the Yankees bats in this series. That was one of my big tentpole reasonings for betting Royals +180 in the series.
Unfortunately, Angel Zerpa let me down in Game 1, partially owing to a rather stingy strike zone.
Obviously, the confidence in the Royals’ lefties against a Yankees team that hit right-handed pitching significantly harder extends to Ragans. I’ll go back to the well here and hope for a better performance. I’m going to need one if this series bet has any chance of cashing.
Best of luck with your Yankees vs. Royals bets.