2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Bets: Final Thoughts, Golf Betting Card, One And Done

The PGA TOUR heads to the 313 a little earlier on the schedule than previous years, and our bets for the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Country Club are officially locked. Tony Finau, Max Homa and Justin Thomas highlight this week’s event, soft conditions after some rain should make one of the most defenseless courses on the PGA TOUR even easier. All signs point towards a surprise, longshot winner. That is, at least, what I’ve planned my Rocket Mortgage Classic bets around. As always, TheLines.com allows you to compare golf odds across sportsbooks.

Now it’s time to get into my full betting card and final thoughts for the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic. 

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HOW I BUILT MY ROCKET MORTGAGE CLASSIC BETTING CARD

This was originally intended to be an ever so slightly shorter outright card before the news of Harris English’s withdrawal on Tuesday. In any case, I think it’s necessary to hedge against the volatility of a putting contest in such extreme scoreable conditions with exposure to a longer list of outright options. In the best case scenario, only 10 of my 11 outright selections will lose, but the goal is to have one or two in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly PGA TOUR exposure:

• Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
• FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
• Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the Rocket Mortgage Classic odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state.

ROCKET MORTGAGE CLASSIC BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Stephan Jaeger

My Bet: +5500
Best Available Odds:

Stephan Jaeger once shot a 58 on the Web.com Tour in 2016. That alone is enough to consider him for his birdie making upside at a course in Detroit Golf Club which may require a score beyond 30-under-par to take down. Jaeger has been a mainstay atop PGA TOUR leaderboards more recently. He ranks No. 7 in SG: T2G over the last 36 rounds with seven consecutive cuts made including four top-30s over that span. He impressed with a T5 finish at this event last year, and has all the tools in his arsenal to go low on this easy set up.

Ludvig Aberg

My Bet: +6000
Best Available Odds:

The former No. 1 ranked amateur in the world has acclimated seamlessly to the professional stage. He’s gained a combined 10 strokes off-the-tee over his last two starts and has finished top 25 in three of his four PGA TOUR appearances in 2023. Aberg recently broke 60 on the collegiate level, so we know he has the chops to go low in easy scoring conditions too.

Adam Hadwin

My Bet: +7500
Best Available Odds:

Hadwin has been a reliable fairway finder over the course of his career, leaning on his irons and putting as the strength of his game to capitalize on easy scoring conditions. He seems to have finally turned a corner with his approach play, returning to his usual baseline in recent weeks by averaging over three strokes gained on approach per event over his last three starts. A T4 finisher here in 2020, Hadwin is the type of player I trust to go low in a birdie fest.

Austin Eckroat

My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:

Entering on a streak of five consecutive top-30s, this is usually the point where we’re meant to make a difficult decision on short odds as to whether this is a short heater, or the next ball striking phenom on TOUR. Fortunately at 80-1 odds, it’s not a difficult decision at all to continue to ride the hot hand. Eckroat impressed in birdie fest conditions most recently with a T2 at the AT&T Byron Nelson, one of the top comp courses for the scoring conditions that lie ahead at Detroit Golf Club.

Byeong Hun An

My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:

Soft conditions, generous fairways, negligible repercussions for wayward drives, and reachable par-5s are all a quintessential recipe for bombers to exploit. Ranking No. 4 in the field in Driving Distance, this is the perfect type of course for An to exploit. He’s more than just a pure bomber, however, as An also ranks No. 6 in SG: TOT and No. 4 in SG: T2G over the last 36 rounds. He’ll need the putter to wake up this week if he’s going to contend, but this is otherwise an ideal setup for An’s game from tee-to-green.

Brandon Wu

My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:

Brandon Wu has proven capable of exploiting easy scoring conditions this season, already picking up three top-10 finishes between the AT&T Byron Nelson, Mexico Open, and Canadian Open. I’m drawn to his spike putting upside in this expected putting contest, as he’s gained 6+ strokes putting in three of his last 10 starts. Ranking top-10 in both Birdies or Better Gained and Par-4: <400 Scoring, Wu seems poised to improve on his T30 finish in his 2022 debut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Sam Stevens

My Bet: +9000
Best Available Odds:

I think I’m ready to officially anoint Sam Stevens as one of “my guys”. He’s a regular in my weekly Sleepers articles, he’s cashed us several placement bets, and is a fixture value play in my DFS core whenever he tees it up. This week, he has all the tools needed to contend at Detroit Golf Club. He ranks top-20 in Driving Distance, SG: TOT, SG: T2G, SG: OTT, SG: Ball Striking, Opportunities Gained, and Par-5 Scoring. Of course, the glaring omission there is putting, but he’s proven capable of catching fire on the greens in select spots, twice gaining over 5 strokes putting in 2023.

Mark Hubbard

My Bet: +11000
Best Available Odds:

Mark Hubbard is always a sensible play in easy scoring conditions given his ability to spike on approach and putting. No. 11 in my model, he ranks top-15 in Comp Course History, SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), SG: APP, and Birdies or Better Gained. Unlike many of the top ball strikers in this week’s field, Hubbard has been reliable on the greens too, having gained stroked putting in six of his last eight starts.

Thomas Detry

My Bet: +12000
Best Available Odds:

When you fade every golfer short of 50-1 odds, there’s going to be more room to spread exposure across less certain longshots towards the bottom of the board. With Detry, we know him to be a bomber with spike putting upside who delivers his best results in birdie fests. He began the season with four top-15s over his first five starts in the fall swing, so a return to easy scoring conditions may just be exactly what he needs to return to contention again.

Adam Schenk

My Bet: +12500
Best Available Odds:

We’ve made it to my tenth outright selection now, but despite the odds, Adam Schenk is the player I feel most confident in to contend at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic. He’s been boom or bust in recent months, but the boom potential is all that matters in the outright market. With two top-10s over his last four starts, Detroit Golf Club is the perfect style of course for Schenk to capitalize on his length off the tee and elite putting.

Joseph Bramlett

My Bet: +15000
Best Available Odds:

Bramlett is known for being one of the longest driver on TOUR, but he’s impressively rounded out the rest of his game as well over the course of this season. He also ranks top-20 in SG: TOT, SG: T2G. and SG: Ball Striking. He showed he can make enough putts to hang around in a birdie fest most recently at the AT&T Byron Nelson, where he gained over five strokes putting. If he can repeat that again at Detroit Golf Club, I love his chances to contend.

ROCKET MORTGAGE CLASSIC FIRST-ROUND LEADER BETS (0.5 UNITS)

Stephan Jaeger

My Bet: +5500
Best Available Odds:

I don’t always dip below 60-1 odds for my FRL bets, but I think it’s worth it for these odds on Jaeger. He’s your quintessential birdie-maker, and on a short list of players capable of posting an opening round of -10 or better, which will be needed to cash on this set up.

Aaron Rai

My Bet: +6500
Best Available Odds:

I would’ve liked to see longer odds on Rai, but it’s the tax you have to pay for someone with three top-25s over their last four starts. Accurate fairway finders have done well at Detroit Golf Club historically, so he’ll go as far as his streaky irons will take him.

Adam Schenk

My Bet: +7000
Best Available Odds:

Schenk has the distance to reach all of these par-5s in two, and the putting range to hole birdies on any given green. He thrives in birdie fests and is no stranger to getting off to a hot start.

Carson Young

My Bet: +10000
Best Available Odds:

Cameron Young tore Detroit Golf Club apart in 2022, but with him skipping the return trip in 2023, we’ll have to pivot to a different C. Young. Carson Young is a bona fide birdie maker, and while I don’t have much exposure to him outside of this market, there’s no question he can post a low number on one of the PGA TOUR’s easiest set ups.

Harry Higgs

My Bet: +15000
Best Available Odds: 

This is truly nothing more than a gut play. I expect a ton of randomness on the leaderboard this week, but I know Harry Higgs is capable of leading a putting contest if only for one round.

ROCKET MORTGAGE CLASSIC PROPS (3 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Adam Hadwin

My Bet: +280
Best Available Odds:

Hadwin’s baseline of above-average approach and putting should set him up well for a high floor in these easy scoring conditions. He’s always putted well at Detroit Golf Club over his first three appearances and his game looks sharp leading in following a T12 showing at the RBC Canadian Open.

Top-20 Finish: Adam Schenk

My Bet: +300
Best Available Odds:

Adam Schenk is, to me, the most undervalued player in the field this week. While he has five missed cuts over his last seven starts, four of those MCs have come on the number, so the game isn’t as lost as it may seem. A pair of top-10s over the same span is evidence of that, and with a streak of six consecutive events in which he’s gained on approach, I’m very optimistic we’ll see a strong showing from him in Detroit.

Top-20 Finish: Joseph Bramlett

My Bet: +320
Best Available Odds:

With three top-20s over his last six starts, Bramlett has a much more polished game than his bomber profile might suggest. In easy, soft conditions, this course should play right into Bramlett’s hands. And while he won’t win this event with a neutral putter, that should still be enough to cash a top-20 placement if he plays to his tee-to-green baseline this week.

Top-20 Finish: Mark Hubbard

My Bet: +360
Best Available Odds:

This is a great value number on Hubbard, who may have gotten lost in all the “bomb and gouge” hype this week. He’s plenty capable of stringing birdies together in a putting contest, and has displayed consistent form with sic top-30s over his last eight starts.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Adam Schenk

I’ve buried myself in a deeper hole than I would have liked at this stage of the OAD season, so while I so have shares or Rickie Fowler and Hideki Matsuyama still available, I’m going to need to differentiate to make up ground. I don’t expect many others to dig this deep down the board, but with a pair of top-10s over his last four starts, it’s clear the upside is there for Schenk to place high in a birdie fest.

If not Schenk, I would also consider Ludvig Aberg, Rickie Fowler, or Adam Hadwin as OAD picks.

ROCKET MORTGAGE CLASSIC: THE BETTING CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic bets. Best of luck this week with your own Rocket Mortgage bets, and see you on Sunday for the John Deere Classic! For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.