Horse Racing Bets: 2024 Risen Star Stakes On Road To The Kentucky Derby

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Written By Dave Bontempo | Last Updated
Risen Star Stakes Odds

The major portion of the Road to the Kentucky Derby starts with a bang. As KY Derby futures pool No. 4 is open, a deep 12-horse field makes up Risen Star Stakes odds and one of the best fields the race has seen in years. Saturday’s horse racing headliner at Fair Grounds kicks off the 50-point Kentucky Derby prep races.

A qualifying berth in the Run for the Roses on May 4 likely awaits the winner. The top 20 point-getters of the prep circuit qualify for the Derby and the 20th position last year only needed 45 points to get a spot in the starting gate.

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2024 Risen Star Stakes Morning Line Odds

The Risen Star has produced three Kentucky Derby champions with War Emblem in 2002, Country House in 2019, and Mandaloun in 2021. Post time is 7:17 p.m. ET. Here’s a look at the $400,000 Risen Star, with several of the top 3-year-old colts in the country making up these horse racing odds.

Click on the odds in the table below to bet now, and join TheLines.com free sports betting Discord channel to talk horse racing.

PostHorseOddsTrainerJockey
1Tizzy Indy50-1Keith Desormeaux James Graham
2Awesome Ruta30-1Joseph FosterMitchell Murrill
3Honor Marie6-1Whitworth BeckmanRafael Bejarano
4Sierra Leone4-1Chad BrownTyler Gaffalione
5Moonlight12-1Todd PletcherFlorent Geroux
6Real Men Violin8-1Ken McPeekBrian Hernandez
7Hall of Fame6-1Steve Asmussen Ricardo Santana
8Catching Freedom5-1Brad CoxLuis Saez
9Cardinale12-1Todd Pletcher Flavien Prat
10Resilience12-1Bill MottJohn Velazquez
11Track Phantom7-2Steve Asmussen Joel Rosario
12Bee Dancer12-1Dallas StewartCorey Lanerie

Weather Forecast

There is an 80% chance of rain in the morning after some rain Friday. Bettors will watch throughout the day to see if that impacts the surface. It’s not a bad idea to watch earlier races and see how the track plays, especially if there is precipitation throughout.

Risen Star Stakes Odds: Past Performances

1. Tizzy Indy (50-1)

Rail position should improve his position after he was a distant fifth to Track Phantom in the Lecomte. May allow him to vie for a slice at the bottom of the exotics.

2. Awesome Ruta (30-1)

Just one win in six tries against horses that are improving all the time. Unlikely, but may be a pace factor, coming out of sprint races.

3. Honor Marie (6-1)

Fascinating prospect to see how much he’s progressed since November. Made an adroit gradual move from last to first, weaving in and finally wide to run down the field and capture the $400,000 Jockey Club Stakes.

This field has a lot of speed, as that one did. Viable threat.

4. Sierra Leone (4-1)

Similar profile. Made a sensational run from 12 lengths back to circle the entire Remsen field and bolt past the leader Dornoch in the stretch.

Inexplicably flattened out and Dornoch stole it back at the wire. Did Tyler Gaffalione move too quickly that day or did being driven so far wide empty his tank?  We’ll find out here. Gaffalione is on him again. Deep closer, should have significant speed to run at. May have the benefit of a rail trip and would be helped by not having to go as wide later.

Adds blinkers, which may enhance his focus.

5. Moonlight (8-1)

Gave a credible closing effort on muddy track at the Remsen, finishing fourth. Made a late move, flattened, and came again.

6. Real Men Violin (8-1)

Only beaten two lengths by Honor Marie in the Jockey Club. Ran close enough that a slight improvement could help him to turn the tables. Has enough tactical speed and rating ability to get the best end of the early break.

7. Hall of Fame (6-1)

Will get betting attention with that 94 Beyer Speed Figure, tops in the race and at this Fair Grounds circuit. He may have notched it in maiden special weights company, but it was a definitive double-digit triumph after taking the lead around the stretch at 1 1/6 miles. Coasted home under a hand ride, making 4-5 betting odds look like stealing.

The son of Gun Runner looks ready for bigger game. Will be tested in a speed-laden field. Much to like. Can he jump up a few notches and take this?

8. Catching Freedom (5-1)

Another horse in this field undaunted by an early deficit. Came from next to last, weaving in and finally four wide to get up in time for a New Year’s Day victory in the Smarty Jones. Bettors knew what they were doing. He was 8-5. The pace could set up for him, and others.

9. Cardinale (12-1)

Pace-presser in allowance optional claiming company at Gulfstream Park. Showed a ton of heart and nearly prevailed at 7-1. But that was a six-horse field and cheaper. Good horse perhaps being asked for too much but should help keep the race honest.

10. Resilience (12-1)

Gulfstream shippers are usually a valued commodity. Could have sneaky value as he won for $89,000 compared to those who have raced in richer company. But his winning time of 1:43.98 is about half a second faster than the favorites in this race at the same distance. Did have a 1:11.65 pace to chase that day. Will need something similar. 

Could be solid at a price. Note his 99-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby futures wagering pool No. 4 running Friday through Sunday. Possible hidden value in that pool.

11. Track Phantom (7-2)

Had an unhurried trip and was able to wire the Lecomte field. But you have to think the pace will be faster than the 1:13.15 he enjoyed in the Lecomte. If so, we’ll see what he’s made of.

Will be forwardly placed in any case. Enters with the second-highest Beyer in the field, logging a 90.

12. Bee Dancer (20-1)

Will be challenged to come up so big so early.  One lifetime start was a six-furlong triumph over this surface. Must stretch and jump a few class levels.

Pace Scenario For Handicapping Risen Star Stakes

Limited speed inside is good news for Track Phantom, who will probably be used early to seek the lead. Awesome Ruta and Cardinale, among others, could prevent Track Phantom from getting away easily.

Real Men Violin and Hall of Fame are in a sweet spot to gain early position.

Honor Marie and Sierra Leone figure to be trailing a wall of horses. But if the rail puts them, say, eight lengths back instead of 12, they will have an excellent chance to rally.

How I’m Betting the Risen Star Stakes

I can make a case for at least seven horses so will keep the win bet small and place it on No. 4 Sierra Leone. I often prefer a horse with a race over the track and don’t trust deep closers, but he makes thunderous moves when he gets going.

As far as exotics, I’ll take Sierra Leone and No. 11 Track Phantom to finish in the top three and will hook them up with some mid-priced horses in some $1 trifecta boxes, each worth $6.

Those decisions will be made Saturday after the post-parade.

Good luck with your handicapping. This is an excellent field!

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