Reds Vs Marlins: MLB Betting Odds, Trends & Stats – July 28, 2022

Written By Staff on July 30, 2022

The Miami Marlins (46-52) visit the Cincinnati Reds (38-59) on Thursday at 12:35 PM ET. Graham Ashcraft starts for Cincinnati (-135 to win) while Miami (+114) will counter with Daniel Castano.

The betting insights in what follows use the latest odds as of July 28, 2022 at 11:26 AM ET.

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Reds vs Marlins Betting Odds

Pitching Matchup

Ashcraft (CIN) Pitcher Castano (MIA)
4 – 2 W/L 1 – 3
59.1 IP 35.0
4.70 ERA 3.86
1.416 WHIP 1.400
6.1 K/9 5.1
2.3 BB/9 2.3

Reds Probable Starter Graham Ashcraft

  • Ashcraft makes the start for the Reds, his 12th of the season. He is 4-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 40 strikeouts through 59 1/3 innings pitched.
  • His most recent appearance came on Friday against the St. Louis Cardinals, when the righty went 4 2/3 innings, surrendering four earned runs while allowing seven hits.
  • In 11 games this season, the 24-year-old has an ERA of 4.70, with 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are batting .280 against him.
  • Ashcraft has collected five quality starts this season.
  • The opposing Marlins offense has a collective .237 batting average, and is 21st in the league with 782 total hits and 24th in MLB action with 392 runs scored. It has the 25th-ranked slugging percentage (.375) and ranks 20th in home runs (94) in all of MLB.

Starting pitcher projections reflect team information as of July 28, 2022 at 11:26 AM ET and may change up to the start of game.

Marlins Probable Starter Daniel Castano

  • The Marlins will send Castano (1-3) to the mound for his seventh start this season.
  • The left-hander’s last appearance was on Tuesday, July 12, when he threw 5 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs while allowing five hits against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  • The 27-year-old has pitched in nine games this season with an ERA of 3.86, a 2.222 strikeout to walk ratio and a WHIP of 1.400.
  • He has earned a quality start two times in six starts this season.
  • The Reds are batting .240 this season, 17th in MLB. They have a team slugging percentage of .380 (23rd in the league) with 92 home runs.

Starting pitcher projections reflect team information as of July 28, 2022 at 11:26 AM ET and may change up to the start of game.

Reds Betting Trends

  • The Reds have won 40% of the games this season when they were the moneyline favorite (8-12).
  • Cincinnati is 4-2 (winning 66.7% of its games) when it has played as a moneyline favorite of -135 or shorter.
  • The implied moneyline probablility for this matchup gives the Reds a 57.4% chance to win.
  • Cincinnati has played in 97 games with over/under set, and has combined with opponents to go over the total 52 times (52-44-1).
  • The Reds have a 47-50-0 record ATS this season (covering 48.5% of the time).
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Marlins Betting Trends

  • This season, the Marlins have been the underdog 52 times and won 18, or 34.6%, of those games.
  • Miami has entered 32 games this season as the underdog by +114 or more and is 9-23 in those contests.
  • Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Marlins have a 46.7% chance to win.
  • So far this season, Miami and its opponents have hit the over in 47 of their 98 games with a total.
  • In 98 games with a spread this season, the Marlins are 44-54-0 ATS.

Reds Players to Watch

  • Brandon Drury has a slugging percentage of .512 and has 89 hits, both team-best numbers for the Reds. He’s hitting .268 with 20 doubles, two triples, 19 home runs and 27 walks.
  • Among the qualifying hitters in MLB play, Drury ranks 53rd in batting average, 77th in on-base percentage, and 14th in slugging.
  • Kyle Farmer has a .332 on-base percentage to pace his team. He has 20 doubles, six home runs and 23 walks while hitting .259.
  • Among the qualifying hitters, Farmer ranks 68th in batting average, 71st in on-base percentage, and 112th in slugging.
  • Tommy Pham has 10 doubles, a triple, 11 home runs and 40 walks while batting .240.
  • Joey Votto is hitting .210 with 17 doubles, a triple, eight home runs and 35 walks.

Reds Batting Stats (2022)

Player AB AVG R HR RBI OBP OPS
Brandon Drury 332 .268 60 19 57 .329 .841
Tommy Pham 325 .240 56 11 37 .322 .700
Kyle Farmer 294 .259 36 6 49 .332 .720
Joey Votto 257 .210 26 8 34 .321 .698
Nick Senzel 229 .258 32 3 18 .316 .644
Mike Moustakas 212 .212 26 6 21 .300 .649
Tyler Naquin 184 .245 28 6 31 .305 .734
Jonathan India 175 .240 20 6 20 .304 .687
Matt Reynolds 170 .265 28 3 18 .337 .708
Dónovan Solano 90 .333 9 2 12 .384 .873

Marlins Players to Watch

  • Miguel Rojas has been key for Miami with 70 hits, an OBP of .285 plus a slugging percentage of .350.
  • Among all qualified hitters in the majors, Rojas’ batting average ranks 115th, his on-base percentage ranks 143rd, and he is 140th in slugging.
  • Jesus Aguilar is slugging .381 while driving in 38 runs and batting .242 this season.
  • Aguilar is 104th in batting average, 138th in on-base percentage and 119th in slugging percentage in the big leagues.
  • Jesus Sanchez has collected 58 base hits, an OBP of .270 and a slugging percentage of .384 this season.
  • Joey Wendle has two home runs, 20 RBI and a batting average of .293 this season.

Marlins Batting Stats (2022)

Player AB AVG R HR RBI OBP OPS
Jesús Aguilar 339 .242 32 11 38 .290 .671
Avisaíl García 312 .234 28 7 30 .267 .594
Miguel Rojas 294 .238 27 6 23 .285 .635
Jesús Sánchez 284 .204 35 11 31 .270 .654
Jacob Stallings 221 .195 19 2 22 .257 .497
Bryan De La Cruz 204 .216 21 7 21 .264 .627
Joey Wendle 164 .293 14 2 20 .339 .735
Nick Fortes 85 .259 21 4 14 .344 .803
Luke Williams 71 .254 12 1 6 .312 .650
Willians Astudillo 54 .241 5 1 4 .255 .551

Reds vs Marlins Player Props

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