Reds Vs Marlins: MLB Betting Odds, Trends & Stats – July 27, 2022

Written By Staff on July 26, 2022

The Cincinnati Reds (37-59) square off against the Miami Marlins (46-51) on Wednesday at Great American Ball Park, beginning at 6:40 PM ET. Luis Castillo takes the mound first for Cincinnati (-149 to win), and Braxton Garrett is Miami’s (+128) pick to start.

The betting facts in what follows reference odds valid as of July 27, 2022 at 1:31 PM ET.

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Reds vs Marlins Betting Odds

Pitching Matchup

Castillo (CIN) Pitcher Garrett (MIA)
3 – 4 W/L 2 – 3
78.0 IP 47.1
2.77 ERA 3.42
1.077 WHIP 1.141
9.5 K/9 8.9
3.1 BB/9 2.1

Reds Probable Starter Luis Castillo

  • Castillo (3-4) gets the starting nod for the Reds in his 14th start of the season. He has a 2.77 ERA in 78 innings pitched, with 82 strikeouts.
  • His last time out was on Thursday, July 14 against the New York Yankees, when the right-hander threw 7 2/3 innings, surrendering one earned run while allowing two hits.
  • In 13 games this season, the 29-year-old has amassed an ERA of 2.77, with 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are batting .197 against him.
  • Castillo is aiming to earn his fifth quality start in a row in this matchup.
  • He will take the mound against a Marlins offense that is batting .238 as a unit (21st in MLB). It is also slugging a collective .375 (25th in MLB) with 92 total home runs (20th in MLB).

Starting pitcher projections reflect team information as of July 27, 2022 at 1:31 PM ET and may change up to the start of game.

Marlins Stats vs Castillo

Player AB AVG H HR RBI OBP OPS
Avisaíl García 26 .346 9 1 4 .370 .870
Jesús Aguilar 11 .182 2 0 0 .308 .490
Miguel Rojas 8 .375 3 0 0 .375 .875
Bryan De La Cruz 3 .333 1 0 0 .333 .666
Jesús Sánchez 3 .667 2 0 0 .667 1.667
Jacob Stallings 2 .000 0 0 0 .000 .000

Marlins Probable Starter Braxton Garrett

  • Garrett (2-3) will take the mound for the Marlins, his 10th start of the season.
  • The left-hander gave up one earned run in 6 2/3 innings pitched on Friday in his last outing, a matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  • The 24-year-old has pitched in nine games this season with an ERA of 3.42 and 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings, with an opponent batting average of .238.
  • He’s going for his third quality start in a row.
  • The Reds have scored 420 runs this season, which ranks 18th in MLB. They have 762 hits, 24th in baseball, with 92 home runs (20th in the league).

Starting pitcher projections reflect team information as of July 27, 2022 at 1:31 PM ET and may change up to the start of game.

Reds Stats vs Garrett

Player AB AVG H HR RBI OBP OPS
Tommy Pham 6 .167 1 0 1 .167 .334

Reds Betting Trends

  • The Reds have compiled a 7-12 record in games they were favored on the moneyline (winning 36.8% of those games).
  • In games it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -149 or shorter, Cincinnati has a record of 2-1 (66.7%).
  • The Reds have an implied moneyline win probability of 59.8% in this contest.
  • Cincinnati has had an over/under set by oddsmakers 96 times, and has combined with opponents to go over the total in 52 of those games (52-43-1).
  • The Reds have gone 46-50-0 against the spread this season.
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Marlins Betting Trends

  • This season, the Marlins have won 18 out of the 51 games, or 35.3%, in which they’ve been the underdog.
  • This season, Miami has won five of its 21 games, or 23.8%, when they’re the underdog by at least +128 on the moneyline.
  • The implied probability of a win by the Marlins, based on the moneyline, is 43.9%.
  • Miami and its opponents have gone over the total this season in 47 of their 97 opportunities.
  • The Marlins are 44-53-0 against the spread this season.

Reds Players to Watch

  • Brandon Drury has racked up 89 hits with a .517 slugging percentage, both team-best numbers for the Reds. He’s hitting .271 with 20 doubles, two triples, 19 home runs and 26 walks.
  • Drury ranks 51st in batting average, 76th in on base percentage, and 14th in slugging among the qualified hitters in MLB play.
  • Kyle Farmer has 19 doubles, six home runs and 23 walks while hitting .259, and paces his team with a .333 on-base percentage.
  • Among qualified hitters, Farmer’s batting average ranks 67th, his on-base percentage ranks 68th, and he is 114th in the league in slugging.
  • Tommy Pham has 10 doubles, a triple, 11 home runs and 40 walks while hitting .237.
  • Joey Votto is hitting .213 with 17 doubles, a triple, eight home runs and 35 walks.

Reds Batting Stats (2022)

Player AB AVG R HR RBI OBP OPS
Brandon Drury 329 .271 59 19 57 .330 .847
Tommy Pham 321 .237 54 11 37 .321 .698
Kyle Farmer 290 .259 35 6 47 .333 .719
Joey Votto 254 .213 26 8 34 .322 .704
Nick Senzel 229 .258 32 3 18 .316 .644
Mike Moustakas 212 .212 26 6 21 .300 .649
Tyler Naquin 184 .245 28 6 31 .305 .734
Jonathan India 171 .240 20 6 20 .305 .691
Matt Reynolds 167 .257 28 3 16 .332 .697
Dónovan Solano 86 .326 8 2 11 .379 .844

Marlins Players to Watch

  • Miguel Rojas has been key for Miami with 70 hits, an OBP of .285 plus a slugging percentage of .350.
  • Among all the qualified hitters in MLB, Rojas’ batting average ranks 114th, his on-base percentage ranks 141st, and he is 139th in slugging.
  • Jesus Aguilar is slugging .385 while driving in 38 runs and batting .245 this season.
  • Among all qualifying hitters, Aguilar is 97th in batting average, 134th in on-base percentage and 117th in slugging percentage.
  • Jesus Sanchez is batting .204 with a .382 slugging percentage and 30 RBI this year.
  • Joey Wendle is batting .300 with a .347 OBP and 20 RBI for Miami this season.

Marlins Batting Stats (2022)

Player AB AVG R HR RBI OBP OPS
Jesús Aguilar 335 .245 32 11 38 .293 .678
Avisaíl García 308 .234 28 7 30 .268 .596
Miguel Rojas 294 .238 27 6 23 .285 .635
Jesús Sánchez 280 .204 35 11 30 .270 .652
Jacob Stallings 221 .195 19 2 22 .257 .497
Bryan De La Cruz 204 .216 21 7 21 .264 .627
Joey Wendle 160 .300 14 2 20 .347 .753
Nick Fortes 82 .256 20 3 13 .344 .771
Luke Williams 68 .265 12 1 6 .324 .677
Willians Astudillo 50 .240 5 1 4 .255 .555

Reds vs Marlins Player Props

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