Red Sox Vs. Yankees Odds: Caesars SGP Odds Boost, Best MLB Bets Friday

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
Red Sox Yankees odds

One of the biggest sports rivalries is renewed at historic Fenway Park, as the MLB-leading New York Yankees (49-22) battle the arch-rival Boston Red Sox (35-34) for the first of their three-game series. If you can stomach a bet on the underdog Red Sox at odds, there’s a special odds boost at Caesars Sportsbook for Friday, June 14. Let’s assess the promo and my best bet for Red Sox vs. Yankees odds.

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caesars Sportsbook: Red Sox vs. Yankees odds boost

These AL East foes will square off for the first time in the 2024 campaign. New York is a favorite to win outright — equivalent to a 59.2% implied probability. That isn’t surprising given the Yankees are among the World Series favorites at odds.

However, Caesars Sportsbook has offered a +950 odds boost on Boston to steal the series’ first game and Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers to homer. The original odds for the de facto same-game parlay (SGP) were +650. This odds boost provides the best price for those who believe there’s greater than a 9.5% implied probability of these outcomes occurring.

On Friday morning, Boston’s ML odds were as high as +140. Hence, money has come in on the home team.

The Case For Boston

Between the projected starters, New York owns a big edge (on the surface) with right-hander Luis Gil, the AL Rookie of the Year favorite and Cy Young candidate. Gil’s most valuable odds in both markets are and , respectively.

Nevertheless, Gil’s 3.05 FIP is more than a full point higher than his ERA, insinuating potential negative regression. His .185 opponents’ BABIP and 82.8% strand rate are elite among qualified starters, yet neither is sustainable.

Moreover, Gil has profited from favorable outcomes for every batted-ball classification: fly balls (50 unadjusted vs. 72 adjusted contact score), liners (77 vs. 95), and grounders (62 vs. 98). His 16.3% liner rate may surge uphill soon. That said, his upper-echelon four-seam fastball and pop-up-inducing prowess (7.8%) have helped him escape jams. For reference, his opponents’ pop-up rate is higher than any qualifying starter delivered last season.

His peripherals appear more vulnerable against lefties, which could assist Devers’ chances of going yard.

Conversely, Red Sox hurler Bryan Bello has pitched below expectations. His 3.68 xFIP is over a full point lower than his ERA. Betting on positive variance against Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and the rest of baseball’s premier lineup is difficult ask. Still, Bello has consistently graded out as a more efficient pitcher at home. His unique pitch mix (slider, sinker, changeup) could also play out in his favor, with New York’s bats tallying a bottom-10 run value against changeups.

Although their bullpens are rated near the top of the list, Boston’s relief corps are more well-rested. On Thursday, Yankees closer Clay Holmes blew a save opportunity in their 4-3 loss at Kansas City. I’m willing to bet a half-unit on the Red Sox moneyline.

Will Rain Impact Matchup?

The weather forecast is projected to be 80 degrees with a 61% chance of rain and light winds blowing out to left-center field in Boston at 6:30 p.m. ET. We may see an extended delay, but there’s no postponement on the horizon.

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Photo by Associated Press

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