The Recency Report: NFL Wild Card Betting Market Movement

Posted By FairwayJay on January 9, 2021
NFL betting market Bears Saints

Each week during the 2020-21 NFL regular season, The Lines provided a look at movement in betting markets. Both sportsbooks and bettors now can dissect the playoff teams and make determinations on which teams have the best chance to make and win this year’s Super Bowl.

No team that has played in the Wild Card round in the last seven years has made the Super Bowl, though that streak could be snapped soon considering only the No. 1 seeds in each conference now get a bye.

Here is a look at market movement ahead of Wild Card weekend, with six games occurring between Jan. 9-10.

NFL Wild Card odds 2021

NFL Wild Card weekend market movement

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills – Saturday, 1:05 p.m. ET

 

The Colts (11-5) and Bills (13-3) kick off Saturday’s coverage at 1:05 p.m. ET on CBS. Winds are expected to be up to 10 MPH with temperatures at 32 degrees.

The game opened at Bills -6.5 and briefly hit -7 at DraftKings Sportsbook. However, PointsBet has held steady at the opener of Bills -6.5. PointsBet director of communications Patrick Eichner told TheLines that the Bills are:

  • Taking 87% of the bets and 77% of the handle
  • The Over/Under dipped from 52 to 51 with 75% of bets and 58% of handle on the Over
  • Buffalo has taken more bets than any other team for Wild Card weekend

At FanDuel Sportsbook, the gap is even greater in support of the Bills with 80% of the bets and 86% of the money backing Buffalo. And 90% of the moneyline bets are also on Buffalo.

Bills player props have also drawn the most action at FanDuel:

  • Most Playoff Passing Yards: Josh Allen leads at +300
  • Most Playoff Receiving Yards: Stefon Diggs leads at +450

At DraftKings it’s been all Bills.

“We are now loaded with Bills money at the current price and I don’t expect that flow to stop,” said DraftKings Sportsbook Director Johnny Avello.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks – Saturday, 4:40 p.m. ET

 

The Rams (10-6) and Seahawks (12-4) open the NFC coverage Saturday at 4:40 p.m. on FOX. Light winds with mid-40s temperatures and no precipitation is in the forecast in Seattle.

The NFC West division rivalry is expected to be a close contest with both defenses having a say in the outcome. Each team won low-scoring regular season games at home.

  • FanDuel Sportsbook has Seattle as a 3-point favorite (-120), and 72% of the bets and money are supporting the Seahawks.
  • PointsBet reports good two-way action on the total so far with 53% of bets on the UNDER and 59% of money wagered on the Over.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET

 

The biggest point spread on Saturday is on the road favorite Buccaneers (11-5) over the WFT (7-9) at 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC. Temperatures will be just above freezing (35 degrees).

Washington bettors may want to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook, where the line is +8 on the Football Team with a moneyline of +320.

“The Bucs are another top choice for weekend wagering,” Avello told TheLines. “Not a surprise as they have been betting the Bucs since March when it was announced that Tom Brady had found a new home.”

  • The Buccaneers have been putting up a ton of points in recent weeks. That includes 26, 31, 47 and 44 points as the Bucs finished the regular season on a four-game winning streak.
  • PointsBet reports 77% of bets and 78% of money bet on the Buccaneers. The total has dropped a full point to 44.5 with 74% of the money on the Under.
  • BetMGM also needs more scoring in the Buccaneers game. The total opened 46.5 and is down to 44.5 with 88% of the money bet on the Under.
  • Tampa Bay (+1100) is the biggest Super Bowl winner liability for BetMGM.

There was a big bet alert from FanDuel Sportsbook on this game, as publicity director Kevin Hennessy reported that, “FanDuel took a $100,000 moneyline bet on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -400.”

Washington (+480) leads the ‘Lowest scoring team of the weekend’ prop.

BetMGM needs Washington (+8.5) and some of the other ugly underdogs to win or cover this weekend.

“This year’s Wild Card round boasts an uncommon amount of large spreads, with all six games currently being over a field goal,” said Matt Cosgriff, Director of Trading at BetMGM. “Public money is on most of the favorites. BetMGM will need a few underdogs to win.”

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans – Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET

 

The Ravens (11-5) and Titans (11-5) play for the second time this season after Tennessee took a 30-24 overtime win at Baltimore in Week 11. Kickoff is at 1:05 p.m. ET on ABC.

Derrick Henry scored the winning touchdown on a 29-yard run. Henry (+260) is the most popular player bet for the postseason on the “Most Playoff Rushing Yards” prop.

  • Henry’s Over/Under rushing yards prop for this game is 120.5 at PointsBet.
  • The best moneyline on both teams is at William Hill Sportsbook, which has the Ravens (-179) and the Titans (+160).
  • William Hill also has the highest Over/Under on the game – now up to 55 with 74% of the bets on the Over, but 61% of the money on the Under.
  • The Ravens have taken 66% of bets and 73% of money at PointsBet.
  • Ravens/Titans is the most evenly bet playoff game of the weekend at FanDuel Sportsbook with 52% of the bets and 59% of the money betting on Baltimore.
  • FanDuel took an $88,000 bet on the Titans alternative spread +3.5 at -110.
  • The Ravens (+470) lead the betting prop of “Highest Scoring Team” of the weekend.

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints – Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET

 

Kickoff is at 4:40 p.m. ET on CBS. The Saints (12-4) are up to a 10-point favorite and moneyline of -510 at PointsBet.

“It’s absolutely insane that the Bears got in the playoffs,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello said.

PointsBet opened the Saints as -10.5 favorites against the Bears (8-8). But Chicago is supporting its team with Bears bettors in the majority as 59% of the bets and 70% of the handle are on Chicago.

“Much of that has to do with our Illinois betting market,” PointsBet’s Patrick Eichner told TheLines.

  • FanDuel Sportsbook has 59% of the bets and 64% of the money on the Saints with 92% of the moneyline bets on New Orleans.
  • The total opened at 48 and dropped to 47 at PointsBet, and 73% of bets and 81% of money wagered is on the Over.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers – Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET

 

The two AFC North rivals meet for a third time. The Browns (11-5) beat the Steelers (12-4) this past Sunday, though Pittsburgh was playing many backups in Week 17. The primetime Sunday night game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC.

  • The Steelers have taken 73% of the bets and 80% of the money at FanDuel Sportsbook as the line has risen sharply with the Brown’s practice facility remaining closed.
  • PointsBet reports that the Steelers, along with the Bills, are the most bet teams. PointsBet opened the Steelers -4.5 and now sits at -6 with 76% of bets and 79% of the handle on Pittsburgh.
  • The team totals at BetMGM are Steelers (-27.5) and Browns (20.5).
  • The best odds to win the Super Bowl for the Pittsburgh Steelers are +2000 at BetMGM.
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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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