Horse Racing Bets: 2024 Rebel Stakes On Road To The Kentucky Derby

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Written By Dave Bontempo | Last Updated
Rebel stakes odds

It’s the class dropper versus horses with experience on the track. That’s the scenario for the Rebel Stakes, the $1.25 million Kentucky Derby prep Saturday at Oaklawn Park. Timberlake has become the staunch morning line Rebel Stakes odds favorite (6-5) to capture the prize of 50 qualifying points and nearly automatic entry into May 4 Kentucky Derby odds.

But the horse who finished fourth in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile hasn’t run since early November and faces a group that has been thriving on the Oaklawn surface.

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2024 Rebel Stakes Morning Line Odds

Post time is 6:23 p.m. ET on Saturday and the weather is supposed to be clear, indicating a fast track.

Bettors can access all the action at FanDuel TV and enjoy a loaded undercard that features the $400,000 Honeybee Stakes at 5:10 p.m. and the $600,000 Razorback at 5:45 p.m. Oaklawn corners the horse racing odds market on Saturday with an industry-best $3,450,000 in purse money.

The Rebel Stakes has produced noteworthy winners including American Pharoah, who went on to become the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years in 2015. Smarty Jones captured the Rebel in 2004 before winning the  Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Birdstone denied him a Triple Crown sweep in the final 100 yards of the Belmont Stakes.

Click on the odds in the table below to bet now, and join free sports betting Discord channel to talk horse racing.

1Carbone15-1Steve Asmussen Isaac Castillo
2Northern Flame5-1Kenneth McPeekJulien Leparoux
3Common Defense30-1Kenneth McPeekBrian Hernandez
4Tejon Pass30-1Peter MillerChris Landeros
5Magic Grant 50-1Eddie MilliganHarry Hernandez
6Dimatic 8-1Steve Asmussen Tyler Gaffalione
7Timberlake6-5Brad CoxChristian Torres
8Next Level30-1Keith DesormeauxJose Riquelme
9Lagynos20-1Steve Asmussen Keith Asmussen
10Mena15-1Steve HobbyFrancisco Arrieta
11Just Steel7-2D.Wayne LukasRamon Vazquez
12Woodcourt20-1Cipriano ContrerasEmm. Esquivel
13Time for Truth15-1Ron Moquett Rafael Bejarano

Rebel Stakes Odds: Past Performances

1. Carbone (15-1)

Spit the bit in the Southwest after gaining a perfect stalking trip to the turn at 9-5. Disappointing favorite in the Southwest gets much better odds here and a track that’s not muddy and sealed as that one was. We will find out whether the problem was the surface or him hitting the wall.

2. Northern Flame (5-1)

Took several tries to break maiden and allowance company, the latter with first-time Lasix.  Along the way has lost to Carbone, Locked and others on the circuit.

Runs hard, a possible threat in exotics, but hard to see him turning the tables.

3. Common Defense (30-1)

Ran reasonably hard in the Southwest but was a distant fifth and must beat some of the graduates here.

4. Tejon Pass (30-1)

Could not win the $150,000 Renaissance Stakes or a subsequent allowance race. Hasn’t shown he can fit with these.

5. Magic Grant (50-1)

Was 10th and not even in the same zip code as winner Mystik Dan in the Southwest. No reason to think he’s going to join the leaders.

6. Dimatic (8-1)

Ran greenly while breaking maiden, drifting in the stretch before Joel Rosario could reel him in. One would think odds would be higher in this field on a horse that just broke his maiden. That indicates the value oddsmakers place on the value of him winning at the host track.

The son of Gun Runner is an interesting horse making a big leap.

7. Timberlake (6-5)

A distant fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at 3-1. This field is not nearly as strong. He is in a sweet spot and justifiably favored, but not automatic. Will be best served to be forwardly placed.

Reportedly worked a 59.40 bullet and 1:00.20 in a pair of six-furlong workouts in February. That may help him gain early position. Trying to notch his first win at two turns.

The pick, but at what price? He’s already teetering on low value. Keep a good eye on the board, he could go too low to be worth playing on the win line.

8. Next Level (30-1)

Will need to reach one to belong with this group. He was a distant seventh to Track Phantom in the Gun Runner and could not win when running back at allowance. Game, but has been outgunned.

9. Lagynos (20-1)

Could sneak into the picture with some improvement. Took the Smarty Jones field all the way until the final turn before flattening out. Finished sixth and had no excuses.

Faces higher stakes, but could find himself in front again. Probably going to be over-run, but might hold on for a piece.

10. Mena (15-1)

Could be some intrigue with this closer. Nearly triumphed in allowance optional claiming at 31-1, chasing a pace of 1:13.86. What if the pace is 1:12 after three quarters and he still has kick?

Yes, this is a better field but the race could set up for his style to at least get in it.

11. Just Steel (7-2)

Loved his performance in the Southwest, gamely holding second at 12-1 after a furious rally from the stalking fourth position. Handily beat Carbone, who is in this race. Good karma? He broke from the 11 post that day as well and gained early position.

A similar effort would give him a similar result. Live in all types of tickets.

12. Woodcourt (20-1)

Amazingly versatile colt has won on turf, synthetic and on a dirt course labeled “good.” All in allowance company, sure, but the horse is fit and the victories have come over the track.

Pegged for improvement. Must show he’s able to move up and will never be in a better position to do so than now.

On the flip side, he nipped Next Level to win his last allowance race at 6-1, coming from nearly last. Next Level then flopped in higher company.

13. Time For Truth (15-1)

And the truth is, he may be better suited for shorter races. Authored a strong 45.96 half-mile to lead the Ozark Stakes field into the homestretch, but finished a beaten second at six furlongs. Figures to run early and may have no choice with this post position. Should keep the race honest for the closers.

Pace Scenario For Handicapping Rebel Stakes

Time for Truth, Lagynos and perhaps Carbone appear likely to set an honest pace. On a fast track, the stalking position from fourth through sixth along the backstretch seems to be the best place to make a decisive move.

How I’m Betting the Rebel Stakes

This one depends on the board on Saturday.

Timberlake will likely be overbet, but if he goes longer than 8-5 I will take a small win bet on him. Small because we’ve seen many horses like this run second after a long time away. 

If Timberlake’s price is slammed too low and Just Steel drifts up to 4-1 or higher,  I have to take a small just-in-case win wager on him.

For exacta, I’ll take the best horse outside of Oaklawn along with the best-performing horse at the track. That’s an exacta box with Timberlake and Just Steel (7-11).

Good luck with your handicapping in Rebel Stakes odds.