Bettors have a daunting task unpacking Rebel Stakes odds for the $1 million race at Oaklawn. Three of the 11 entrants have Beyer Speed Figures in the mid to high 90s already on their race resume. None look ready to dip below even money and allow a repeat of 2022 winner Un Ojo drifting from 12-1 to 75-1 on race day. That happened when the public backed 4-5 shot Newgrange, who finished sixth.
It’s the next race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule. Three-year-olds will go 1 1/6 miles in a win-and-you’re in Kentucky Derby qualifier. Points are 50-20-15-10-5 for places one through five, toward the Run for the Roses on May 6.
Post time is 6:23 p.m. Nationwide bettors can follow the action via FanDuel TV and lock in a new user TVG sign-up bonus below.
2023 Rebel Stakes Odds: The Morning Line
|1||Verifying||Brad Cox||Florent Geroux||2-1|
|2||Powerful||Steve Asmussen||Isaac Castillo||20-1|
|3||Red Route One||Steve Asmussen||Christian Torres||10-1|
|4||Gun Pilot||Steve Asmussen||Ricardo Santana Jr||8-1|
|5||Giant Mischief||Brad Cox||Irad Ortiz Jr.||5-2|
|6||Reincarnate||Tim Yakteen||John Velazquez||7-2|
|7||Confidence Game||Keith Desormeaux||James Graham||15-1|
|8||Talladega||Rodolphe Brisset||Flavien Prat||30-1|
|9||Event Detail||Paulo Lobo||Gerardo Corrales||30-1|
|10||Bourbon Bash||D. Wayne Lukas||Mickaelle Michel||20-1|
|11||Frosted Departure||Ken McPeek||Francisco Arrieta||20-1|
1. Verifying (2-1)
Looks the part. Ran a game sixth in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November and was moving with purpose at the end. Enjoyed a stalking trip on the outside and gave everything in the stretch run. Forte won the race and Cave Rock was second. That stalwart group is not here, but Verifying is. He sports a Beyer speed figure of 97, tops in the field. Here’s verifying a strong contender.
2. Powerful (20-1)
Does not get a favorable comparison with Verifying regarding Forte, who routed him in the Breeders’ Cup Futurity. Powerful finished 11th, nowhere in the conversation. Bounced back nicely to capture the $200,000 Ed Brown Stakes at 6 1-2 furlongs. Nice horse, but his wins have been in shorter races. Nothing suggests he will stretch out and beat these, but may be a pace factor.
3. Red Route One (10-1)
Regardless of his final odds, you can bet he wants to run late. Trailed the Southwest field by 15 lengths before bolting as if an alarm clock had gone off. Finished a strong second, although not close to 1-5 shot Arabian Night, a potential Kentucky Derby favorite.
That race was on slop. Will get more play if the expected light rains become heavy enough to change the track surface. Red Route’s huge move was reminiscent of Zenyatta, who was famous for colossal rallies and who came from more than 15 lengths back to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2009. Running this late is risky. But maybe Red Route One can run closer to the pace and still have kick.
4. Gun Pilot (8-1)
Nice progression. Won debut at seven furlongs and ran a game second to Verifying early this year at Oaklawn. Held the lead until the final turn and stayed competitive until the final 100 yards. Came back to win at the same distance. If he has the ability to stretch, could be a nice surprise in the exotics.
5. Giant Mischief (5-2)
Revealing second-place finish in the Springboard Mile at Remington Park. Broke dead last at 4-5, spotted the field nine lengths and made two definitive runs to capture second. One burst moved him from ninth to third. The other enabled him to pass a horse in the stretch. With all those problems, he only missed by a length and a half.
Trained by Brad Cox, who is on a roll with Kentucky Derby points leader Angel of Empire, third-place Instant Coffee and seventh-place Hit Show. With any kind of a break, Grant Mischief will be formidable.
6. Reincarnate (7-2)
Unfurled terrific Sham Stakes triumph at 16-1 at Santa Anita. He broke sharply and got the best of Spun Intended in a contentious speed duel that produced a half-mile at 45:47. In the homestretch, he matched strides with Newgate and outkicked him. He also beat National Treasure, third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Has an impressive second at this distance at Santa Anita. Much to like, although he figures to be hooked up in a speed duel again. His back Beyer Speed figure of 95 puts him with the top group, And this is Bob Baffert, via Tim Yakteen, on the training angle.
Baffert has won a record eight Rebels. He switched to Yakteen this week to enable Derby qualifying points for his horse. Baffert’s suspension at Churchill Downs (for Medina Spirit’s failed drug test after the 2021 Derby) won’t be up before the 2023 Derby. The suspension means that any of his horses entered in Derby preps won’t get points.
7. Confidence Game (15-1)
Was locked and loaded, ready to overtake the frontrunners after a perfect trip in the Lecomte. Was overtaken by race winner Instant Coffee and Two Phil’s. This is a bigger field and he will have more stalkers to vie against.
8. Talladega (30-1)
Comes off a maiden special weights victory at this distance and this track. Must take a considerable step up in class. His time was about one second slower than Reincarnate at speed-favoring Santa Anita, Connections believe he is about to come into his own,
9. Rattle N Roll (30-1)
Did all that was asked in winning at a mile in his third effort. But that was against maidens and at Turfway Park, which is less of a circuit than Fair Grounds. Much to ask.
10. Bourbon Bash (20-1)
Had a victory in allowance company all to himself until Gun Pilot ran him down in the stretch. Must move up and run longer. Not enviable
11. Frosted Departure (20-1)
Ran a nice third behind Arabian Night and Red Route One in the Southwest. Was 45-1 that day. Wouldn’t be a shock to see in the bottom of the exotics. Figures to be forwardly placed.
Betting Strategy for the Louisiana Derby
The race may set up nicely for Giant Mischief, with Powerful, Confidence Game and Frosted Departure perhaps able to pepper Reincarnate on the front end. Whatever they take out of him may determine whether Giant Mischief, Verifying or Red Route One pick up the pieces. Reincarnate, to his credit, has survived some wicked speed duels at Santa Anita and will try to do it again.
- Follow TheLines on Twitter
How I’m Betting Rebel Stakes Odds
There are solid reasons to like Verifying, Giant Mischief and Reincarnate in Rebel Stakes odds. I will invest $6 in a $1 trifecta box 1-5-6. I’ll take $5 win and place on Giant Mischief and a $5 win flyer on Red Route One as Oaklawn has treated me well with closers over the years.
The rest of these bets are speculative, race-day calls: A five-dollar exacta box 5-1 and 5-6 are also under consideration. A 10-cent superfecta key, putting the 3 first and second with the 1-4-5-6-7, Cost is $12, Will have to find some exacta box with Frosted Departure (the 11) too.
We all need a little fun. Good luck with the Rebel Stakes!