Real Madrid Vs. Chelsea: 2022-23 Champions League Quarterfinal Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on April 12, 2023
Champions league odds

Real Madrid and Chelsea continue the UEFA Champions League quarterfinals on Wednesday, April 12. The match begins at 3 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on streaming platforms including fuboTV, Paramount+ and Univision. The winner will have the edge before the second leg, which takes place April 18 in England. As part of TheLines‘ soccer coverage, let’s take a look at Champions League odds for this match.

Real Madrid Vs. Chelsea Champions League Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Champions League knockout rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. 

If the aggregate-goal score after two legs is tied, there will be two 15-minute periods of extra time. However, it’s possible for a Champions League match to go to extra time with a Leg 2 score that was not tied. In this case, three-way moneyline bets for Leg 2 are graded for the team that leads after 90 minutes. 

If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out on the team to move on to the next round, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

Real Madrid Team Preview

Real Madrid may find themselves cast adrift in terms of the race for this season’s La Liga crown. But that does not mean they are a busted flush in the cup competitions. Especially if you take into account their recent Copa Del Rey showing.

Because after ending the first leg of their semifinal with a 1-0 home defeat to Barcelona, progressing to this year’s final looked daunting. Although in fairness to Carlo Ancelotti’s men, they made it look rather easy. Not many teams walk into the Camp Nou and walk out with a 4-0 away win in their back pocket. At the same time, Real Madrid is obviously not just any team.

That rampant showing in Catalunya may have only been in Spain’s domestic cup competition but it does show that Los Blancos have a pedigree for all kinds of knockout football.

Particularly so when it comes to Champions League, at least historically. Not only have they managed to win this competition on 14 separate occasions — the most in history — but they are also the current holders. And although they were not favorites to lift the trophy nearly 12 months ago, they consistently silenced the doubters.

There is a sense of history repeating. And although the white half of Madrid are not favorites to win this season’s edition of the Champions League, you must also write them off at your peril.

Chelsea Team Preview

If you tried to write a soap opera that mimicked the current managerial drama in the Premier League, the fiction would still not come out more bizarre than the reality of the latest chapter at Stamford Bridge.

The home of Chelsea has seemingly been nothing more than a revolving door for managers over the past couple of decades. When current owner Todd Boehly received the keys in West London, he promised a new era. An era meant to give the man in charge time to oversee what was always going to be a painful transition at times. Frustrating results, perhaps, but with a roadmap to glory in the future.

However, the Graham Potter era that Boehly was so quick to trumpet at the beginning has now ended rather abruptly. The former Brighton boss can now also add the former Chelsea manager to his resume.

That, though, does not tell the full tale of the bizarre drama that has unfolded. That comes with Frank Lampard being installed as the interim manager until the end of the season. And the remit is to help the Blues win this season’s Champions League.

Of course, Lampard was the Chelsea manager between July 2019 and January 2021. And although he would lead the club to the FA Cup final in 2020, he delivered no silverware during his tenure. Can he deliver the biggest prize of all in just a couple of months?

Champions League Knockout Rounds Bracket

Image via UEFA Champions League official site

Real Madrid vs. Chelsea Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

Real Madrid8218+131710+7

Matchup History

Prior to Wednesday;’s meeting at the Santiago Bernabeu, Real Madrid, and Chelsea have met on four separate occasions in the Champions League. The Blues have won two of them.

Two wins for Chelsea, one for Real Madrid, and one draw. The two teams swapped wins in last season’s quarterfinal tie. At one stage, it looked as if the Blues would sail through to the semis. Unfortunately for them, Karim Benzema had other ideas. 

His 96th-minute goal in the Spanish capital would send Los Blancos through to the last four in the most dramatic of fashions. A goal that showed you can never write off this or any other Real Madrid side.

Real Madrid vs. Chelsea Champions League Odds: Bets To Consider

Real Madrid -2.5 (+500)

After such a disastrous season for Chelsea, the only thing that they have left is the hope of winning a second Champions League title in three years. Unfortunately for them, they find themselves going up against Real Madrid in the quarterfinals.

Not only is this a Chelsea team in a massive state of flux, but it is also a Real Madrid team currently the holders of the Champions League trophy. And when they get hold of it, they do not like to let it go.

A statement that can be reinforced by Real Madrid’s recent trip to Anfield. Even after going 2-0 down to the fellow 2022 finalists, they still managed to score five unanswered goals in a stunning reply.

This is the might that Chelsea must deal with. And even if they are putting all their eggs in this particular basket, you get the feeling that they will crack in the Spanish capital.

When looking at the moneyline odds there is little value in simply backing the home win on Wednesday. Instead, I will need to dig a little deeper, and this is where the spread comes into play. It is not a case of the home win, more a case of by how much. 

Even a 0.5 headstart is not enough to really get the juices flowing and therefore, I am going to put Chelsea 2.5 up before the game gets underway. However, that head start will not be enough in the end, as I back Los Blancos to win by at least three clear goals.

Real Madrid Score In Both Halves (+200)

If Real Madrid is to win by three clear goals then they may have to share their attacking output across both halves. That is not to say that they are not capable of demolishing Chelsea in 45 minutes. But, it may be easier if they do not identify one single half to get on top.

Because with the way Chelsea has been playing of late, even the installation of former boss Frank Lampard on a temporary basis will do little to stem the tide. Real Madrid can punish you in the first half and they can really hurt you in the second.

Ultimately, Chelsea will be looking at this encounter and weighing up just how long they can keep their defensive dam from breaking. If it does show weakness in the first half, it could be game over as soon as it has almost begun.

Admittedly, the Blues do have nothing to lose. But, I am not sure if they have everything to gain at the same time. The best they can hope for is damage limitation, and trying to keep the tie alive for the second leg.

Something that will certainly not be the case if my first prediction comes good. You never give a three-goal advantage to Real Madrid. If you do, you are never going to have enough time to claw it back.

However, for this second pick, it is simple as backing a Real Madrid goal in both the first and second halves. Even if the first tip does not come good, this one should give us enough coverage to end the evening in profit. 

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