Real Madrid vs. Liverpool: Wednesday Champions League Odds And Bets

Written By Dan Tracey on March 15, 2023
Champions League odds

The UEFA Champions League continues Wednesday with Leg 2 of another Round of 16 match. Real Madrid holds a 5-2 lead after Leg 1 over Liverpool. Kickoff is at 4 p.m. EDT, with the game streaming on Paramount+ in the United States. Real Madrid is to win Leg 2 in the 90 minutes in Champions League odds, with the over/under set at .  

The game will be played in Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid, Spain. As part of TheLines‘ soccer coverage, let’s take a look at UCL Champions League odds for this match and potential bets to make.

Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Champions League Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Champions League knockout rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If the aggregate-goal score after two legs is tied, there will be two 15-minute periods of extra time. However, it’s possible for a Champions League match to go to extra time with a Leg 2 score that was not tied. In this case, three-way moneyline bets for Leg 2 are graded for the team that leads after 90 minutes. 

If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out on the team to move on to the next round, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

Real Madrid Team Preview

Last month provided us with one of the greatest Champions League clashes of all time. A clash that saw two of Europe’s very best to go to war. A clash that saw a repeat of the 2022 final in Paris.

Liverpool played host to Real Madrid and found themselves with a two-goal advantage in the first 15 minutes. Unfortunately, such an act only seemed to poke the bear which was Real Madrid and you never want to do that.

Because in the 75 minutes that followed, Carlo Ancelotti’s men were ruthless. Not only did they restore parity in the game but they found three more unanswered goals to be added to the scoresheet.

Almost as soon as Los Blancos went 2-0 down, did they then find themselves 5-2 ahead. A microcosm of just how good this Real Madrid is and another example of why you simply cannot write them off.

Many observers may have written them off after a sluggish start in the first leg of this Round of 16 pairing. Those same observers would have been feeling rather foolish by the time the final whistle was blown.

Now Real Madrid must display their championship-winning pedigree once again and if they can withstand everything and anything that Liverpool will attempt to throw at them, a place in this season’s quarterfinals will be theirs. 

Liverpool Team Preview

Before Jurgen Klopp and his players step foot in Madrid, the equation is rather simple. Liverpool has to score at least three goals to have any chance of winning this Round of 16 meeting with Real Madrid.

That in itself sounds enormously difficult, even more so when it means they cannot concede at the other end. Add the fact that a 3-0 win or anything of the same size margin would only take the game to extra time and you can get a true sense of how hard this task will be.

If Liverpool is to progress to the last eight of this season’s Champions League and do so in regulation time, they will need to win by four clear goals at the Santiago Bernabeu. A feat that is difficult but not quite impossible either.

Especially as the Reds will certainly have their tails up after their recent mauling of Manchester United. A record defeat was handed out to the Old Trafford outfit in this fixture, a 7-0 win for Liverpool is now etched in the history books.

To suggest a similar outcome in just a few days, would be a ludicrous suggestion but at the same time the Merseyside men simply have to go for it. They cannot hold back, they may as well go out swinging for the fences if they are to go out at all.

They lost 5-2 in the opening leg, they could win 5-2 in the second. The soccer universe has a strange way of working at times and this sets up Wednesday’s meeting in Madrid somewhat nicely.  

Champions League Knockout Rounds Bracket

Since the UCL draws for new matchups after the Round of 16, there’s no set bracket for fans to follow just yet.

Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

Real Madrid7208+1214.99.5+5.4

Matchup History

When it comes to the history between Real Madrid and Liverpool, it is almost akin to a story where the monster cannot be slayed. The hopeful slayer is the Reds, and the role of the monster is played by Los Blancos.

Just as we saw a couple of weeks ago, even when two goals down Real Madrid do not know how to quit. A win that looked unlikely and won that has seen Carlo Ancelotti’s men win each of their last three high-stakes matches against the Merseyside men.

While of the nine previous meetings between the two clubs, Liverpool has failed to win any of their last seven and if they are to end this streak and progress to the last eight of this season’s Champions League, they will need to do something incredibly special. 

Real Madrid vs. Liverpool: Bets To Consider On Champions League Odds

Over 3.5 goals: +140

With their being no fewer than seven goals in the recent meeting at Anfield, I believe there will be plenty more on the midweek agenda. Perhaps not as many in the Spanish capital, but at the same time I would not rule it out either.

As Liverpool needs to score at least three goals to qualify for the last eight of this season’s competition – maybe even four if they want to avoid the conundrum that comes with extra time and penalties, they are going to have to throw the kitchen sink and more. 

Of course, Real Madrid is not shy when it comes to attempting to breach the opposition’s defense. We all saw what they could do in the first leg, as they scored five unanswered strikes to blitz the Merseyside men, even just one or two may be enough at the Bernabeu.

This means when you add these two combustible components to the menu, there surely has to be a plethora of goals. Carlo Ancelotti’s men do not do soccer that is considered on the defensive side, Jurgen Klopp’s side simply cannot afford to shut up shop.

Simply backing over 2.5 is far too simple and not something that will squeeze enough juice out of the market. The only way you could do that is by looking at the flipside and backing under instead. 

The only way we can start to get the sportsbook in a sweat is by backing over 3.5 goals in Madrid. Even if you removed the first-leg result from the equation and looked at this game in isolation, I cannot see it being a drab encounter. 

Liverpool to advance: +1400

Cards on the table, do I think this outcome happens? No, I do not think it will. However, Liverpool does have a habit of doing the unthinkable in European competitions and at these odds, you would be mad to overlook such a wager (at least for some lunch money).

Take the 2019 Champions League semi-final for example. 3-0 down after being trounced by Barcelona at the Camp Nou. A magical evening at Anfield subsequently unfolded, as a 4-0 win was recorded in the second leg.

Just a glimpse of the never say die attitude that Liverpool is more than capable of showing and if they are to finally slay the monster that is Real Madrid, what better way to do it than on their own turf?

While we should not forget that Liverpool are going to have their tails up after that incredulous 7-0 home Premier League win over Manchester United. A result that has undoubtedly turbocharged their campaign.

Now, Jurgen Klopp will hope his players can put on the afterburners in the heat of the Spanish evening sun and if they can score the first goal in Madrid, then the belief will only start to increase.

Whether that belief can be converted into something magical remains to be seen but if you do have a spare couple of dollars in your account and fancy some Champions League drama, this would not be the worst bet that you will ever place. 

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