2024 RBC Heritage Preview: Everything To Know About Harbour Town Golf Links

Another week of PGA TOUR action brings us to Harbour Town Golf Links, with the 2024 RBC Heritage next on tap. Compare RBC Heritage odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA TOUR golf betting payouts. Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

The RBC Heritage is always tasked with the hardest follow-up act in golf – the Masters. That task won’t be as hard this year, however, as it’s taken on new status as a Signature Event for the second consecutive year. Like the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the RBC Heritage significantly improved its strength of field, as many of the game’s best decided to stick around. Let’s dive into 2024 RBC Heritage odds, as well as a course and tournament preview.

Like many of the other short and positional courses we’ve come to know on the PGA TOUR, Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina, offers a repeatable formula of Driving Accuracy, SG: APP, and SG: ARG. Here’s a look ahead at everything you can expect from Harbour Town Golf Links ahead of the 2024 RBC Heritage.

2024 RBC HERITAGE ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Scroll to the bottom for complete outright odds. Here are the opening favorites with odds shorter than 15-1, posted at sportsbooks Monday morning.

THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

Just 142 miles southeast of Augusta, it’s not asking too much for players to stick around after the Masters. While some may battle a mental hangover, the last three winners of this event did so after competing at the Masters.

With its newfound Signature event status, this field of 69 will be the strongest and most concentrated in RBC Heritage history by a significant margin. All eligible TOUR members inside the OWGR top 50 come to play, with the exception of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. There will be no open qualifying, but four final spots in the field remain open until after the Masters wraps up. Those are reserved for Sponsor’s Invitations, as well as the winner of the Masters, if not already qualified. As of Sunday morning, Nicolai Højgaard is the only player in contention not otherwise qualified for the RBC Heritage.

This event typically drew late withdrawals after the Masters really weighed in, but as of now, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are expected to highlight the field. Scheffler, however, remains on WD watch with his wife due to give birth at any moment.

Ludvig Åberg, Matthieu Pavon, and Eric Cole highlight debutant contenders.

Matt Fitzpatrick returns after nudging past Jordan Spieth in a playoff last year. Spieth is the only other past champion in the field this week. With its limited field as a Signature Event, many of the recent champions (Cink, Furyk, Kuchar, etc.) no longer qualify.

INTRODUCTION TO HARBOUR TOWN GOLF LINKS

Harbour Town is perhaps the most straightforward course to handicap on the PGA TOUR. A very clear trend has dominated: drive it straight, strike your mid-irons at an elite level, and scramble well around the greens.

Against comparatively weaker fields historically, this formula opened contention up to more grizzled veterans and essentially removed any distance advantage. The last 10 winners averaged 32 years old, with six winning at 35-plus. No winners checked in under the age of 27.

Course fit prevails over recent form this week. Experience at Harbour Town and other comparable positional courses may provide a more distinct advantage than raw ball striking ability.

For Harbour Town course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past RBC Heritage winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our RBC Heritage odds page.

Editor’s Note

EVENT HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

Players who routinely performed best at the RBC Heritage should help point to who contends this week. Its newfound status as a Signature event does add a concentration of talent this tournament had not seen before last year. With such a different caliber of field in store this week, I’m taking any past results at the RBC Heritage with a grain of salt.

Looking at recent course history, 11 players have multiple T15 finishes over the last five years: Patrick Cantlay, Cam Davis, JT Poston, Tommy Fleetwood, Jordan Spieth, Emiliano Grillo, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns, Brian Harman, Sungjae Im, and Corey Conners.

Just seven players made the cut in each appearance over the last five years (min. three starts): Cam Davis, Jordan Spieth, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, and Wyndham Clark.

The Big 3: Fitzpatrick, Spieth, and Cantlay

There is a clear three-headed monster of elite talents with great course history at Harbour Town. All three found themselves in a playoff in both of the last two years. Spieth has been a constant in each of the last two, beating Cantlay in 2022 and falling to Fitzpatrick in 2023.

You’ll hear the narrative on repeat that Harbour Town is Matt Fitzpatrick’s favorite place in the world. He grew up playing golf here on holiday, and it’s the reason he still keeps the signature lighthouse headcover in his bag.

While Cantlay still in searches for his first RBC Heritage win – as well as some more consistent overall form in 2024 – he does headline in terms of total strokes gained over the last five years, with three top-3 finish at this event over that span.

Looking at total strokes gained at Harbour Town over the last 10 years, the top 10 players in course history are: Cantlay, Spieth, Fitzpatrick, Cam Davis, JT Poston, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Emiliano Grillo, Cameron Young, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

Course Comps

We know this type of course by now: short, positional, target golf. It’s a rare opportunity for shorter hitters to contend and the type of course where Webb Simpson archetypes repeatedly find success. 

With so many repeat names on the RBC Heritage leaderboard over the years – and a persistent need for driving accuracy and proximity from 125-200 – there is a certain profile of a player who can lean on their precise ball striking for consistency here. However, with so many new faces in this year’s field, comp course history will prove to be an even stronger indicator of success than Course History itself.

Pete Dye courses tend to mimic a consistent design philosophy that rewards a tactical approach off the tee and penalize misfires on approach. Of Pete Dye’s designs, TPC Sawgrass, TPC River Highlands, and Stadium Course serve as the top Dye comps to Harbour Town.

Courses that force the field to take the driver out of their hands and reward accuracy both off the tee and on approach should serve as great comp reference points as well. Pebble Beach, Colonial CC,  Waialae CC, Sedgefield CC, Sea Island Resort and El Camaleon each embody those characteristics well.

Combine performance across this long list of shorter, positional comp courses together, and the top 10 players in Comp Course History from this week’s field include Scottie Scheffler, Ludvig Åberg, Xander Schauffele, Matthieu Pavon, Brian Harman, Russell Henley, Sam Burns, Wyndham Clark, Sungjae Im, and Keegan Bradley.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER

• SG: APP / GIRs Gained
• SG: ARG / Scrambling
• Fairways Gained
• P4: 400-450
• Prox 125-200
• SG: Putting (Bermuda)
• SG: Ball Striking (<7,200 Yard Courses)
• Course & Comp Course History

The executive summary to approaching RBC Heritage odds suggests refining your list to elite players in SG: APP, SG: ARG, and Fairways Gained. It really has been that cut-and-dry of a formula to predict success at this event. Just eight players rate out top 30 in SG: APP & SG: ARG and above-average in Fairways Gained: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Russell Henley, Collin Morikawa, Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Lucas Glover, and Akshay Bhatia.

Taking a deeper dive into each of the key stats this week, the top 10 players in SG: APP, the most critical stat of the week, are: Scottie Scheffler, Tom Hoge, Corey Conners, Tony Finau, Austin Eckroat, Xander Schauffele, Lucas Glover, Victor Perez, Will Zalatoris, and Nick Taylor.

Unique to Harbour Town, it’s rare to find many approaches beyond 200 yards. Only 20% of shots came from this range in 2022. The 125-200 yard range has been the sweet spot in this event, with a concentration of about 30% of shots coming from 175-200 yards. The top 10 players in weighted proximity from 125-200 yards are Scottie Scheffler, Tom Hoge, Chris Kirk, Jake Knapp, Matthieu Pavon, Kurt Kitayama, Austin Eckroat, Collin Morikawa, JT Poston, and Cameron Young.

Small Greens, Easy Fairways

With these greens being among the smallest on TOUR, short game proves increasingly important to scramble for pars on errant approaches. The top 10 players in weighted SG: ARG & Scrambling are Mackenzie Hughes, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Si Woo Kim, Denny McCarthy, Brendon Todd, Adam Schenk, Harris English, and Tommy Fleetwood.

It’s not entirely necessary to model Fairways Gained this week. The field at large should inherently find more accuracy when clubbing down for these forced layups. Instead, I’m looking to SG: Ball Striking on courses under 7,200 yards in order to identify the players who are best at clubbing down on positional courses. The top 10 in this category are Ludvig Åberg, Rory McIlroy, Corey Conners, Sungjae Im, Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, Cam Davis, Austin Eckroat, Russell Henley, and Patrick Cantlay.

Looking at the correlation charts this week, we see a notable dip in the importance of SG: OTT and P4: 450-500 relative to the TOUR average. Driving Distance and Prox 200+ are also rated as the two least correlated stats with success for this event. Instead, P4: 400-450, SG: Short Game / SG: ARG, and SG: APP climb this week.

Seven players in the field rank above average in each of the above key stat categories: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Matthieu Pavon, Russell Henley, Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim, and Austin Eckroat.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Cam Davis

I won’t be the first, nor the last, person to sing Cam Davis’ praises at the 2024 RBC Heritage. His recent form (in contention at the Masters) and course history (T25, T3, and T7 in his first three appearances) speak for themselves. He’ll be one of the most poplar bets on the board this week, but let’s talk about him anyway!

In a field of just 69 players, we should expect betting value to be hard to come by. So, when I see a player who lacks the pedigree of the other stars at the top of the board, sometimes it’s best not to overthink and simply jump on the value when it presents itself.

In Davis’ case, he won’t priced shorter than stars like Scheffler, McIlroy, or Spieth (among many others), so I’m confident we’ll get a bettable number on him despite his great form shown at the Masters.

While it hasn’t been a great start to 2024 for Davis, he turned a corner at the Houston Open. There, he finished T21 and gained across all four Strokes Gained categories. With top-20s earlier this season at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Arnold Palmer Invitational, Davis is no stranger to playing well in Signature Events against the world’s best.

He ranks top-10 in Course History, SG: T2G (Comp Courses), and SG: OTT (<7,200 yard courses), as well. Davis profiles as a positional course specialist who raises his baseline on venues that allow him to strategically club down off the tee.

2024 RBC HERITAGE ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early towards the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2024 RBC Heritage odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS

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Tier 1

Scottie Scheffler
Ludvig Åberg
Xander Schauffele

Tier 2

Cameron Young
Jordan Spieth
Matt Fitzpatrick
Patrick Cantlay
Collin Morikawa

Tier 3

Russell Henley
Corey Conners
Cam Davis
Shane Lowry
Si Woo Kim

Tier 4

Matthieu Pavon
Kurt Kitayama
Tom Hoge

Tier 5

Austin Eckroat
Jake Knapp

RBC HERITAGE MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

In my BTN model this week, I’m emphasizing SG: APP, Comp Course History, Prox: 125-200, SG: Ball Striking (<7,200-yard courses), SG: APP, and SG: T2G (L12 rounds), followed by a more balanced mix of Fairways Gained, SG: ARG, Scrambling, SG: P (L36, Bermuda), GIRs Gained, and Par-4: 400-450.

Scottie Scheffler is likely in the field next week – barring the birth of his child interfering – so naturally, he’s once again the No. 1 player in my model. He did not play this event after winning the 2022 Masters (prior to it becoming a Signature event) and finished a modest T11 in his debut here last year. Scheffler is elite at everything. So he’s a threat to win on any course you put him. That said, a second-shot course, which completely removes the skill of driving the ball long and straight levels the playing field just a bit. It’ll make me think twice before locking Scheffler into all of my DFS lineups, as I have for the past couple of months.

After Scheffler, the rest of my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Xander Schauffele, Russell Henley, Ludvig Åberg, Si Woo Kim, Denny McCarthy, Brian Harman, Akshay Bhatia, Chris Kirk, and Corey Conners.

When 2024 RBC Heritage odds open, I’m looking to find exposure to the best ball strikers with a proven history on positional courses. I’ll have my eye on a few of Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Åberg, Xander Schauffele, Russell Henley, and Cam Davis. Check back in later this week for more updates. Best of luck navigating 2024 RBC Heritage odds!

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