RBC Heritage Betting Preview: Rory McIlroy Among Big Names Playing At Harbour Town

Posted By FairwayJay on June 17, 2020
RBC Heritage odds Rory McIlroy

Now in its eighth year as title sponsor, the 2020 RBC Heritage is the 52nd edition at Harbour Town.

Normally played the week following The Masters in April, this year’s event is June 18-21 and will feature the strongest field in the tournament’s history. It will be headlined by the top five players in the world rankings: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson. McIlroy returns for the first time since 2009 while Rahm and Koepka take a swing on the Island for the first time. Thomas is making his third visit and Johnson plays Harbour Town for the third straight year.

Others ranked in the Top 25 teeing it up at Harbour Town:

  • Patrick Cantlay
  • Tony Finau
  • Xander Schauffele
  • Justin Rose
  • Louis Oosthuizen
  • Tyrrell Hatton
  • Hideki Matsuyama
  • Sunjae Im
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick
  • RBC Ambassadors Matt Kuchar and Webb Simpson

Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia return to Harbour Town for the first time in more than seven years. Other past major champions and popular veteran players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Gary Woodland, Shane Lowry, Patrick Reed, Bubba Watson, Zach Johnson and past champions Branden Grace, Jim Furyk, Davis Love and Bernhard Langer.

Designed by Pete Dye with assistance from Jack Nicklaus, Harbour Town underwent extensive renovations in 2015 with all new grasses on the tees, greens and rough along with a new irrigation system. The quaint track checks in at just 7,100 yards, and the course requires a tactical approach with precision ball striking and placement a prerequisite over power. Narrow, tree-lined fairways and tiny greens that average less than 4,400 square feet are Harbour Town’s greatest defense.

No spectators will be allowed at Harbour Town due to coronavirus protocols.

RBC Heritage odds

There is little discrepancy in the odds for those players at the top of the market priced 30-1 or lower, but those players with some successful results at Harbour Town include:

Bryson DeChambeau: He’s +1500 at FanDuel and was +1200 at BetMGM Tuesday. BetMGM moved him to +1400 Wednesday. DeChambeau has a pair of of top 5 finishes in 2016 and 2018, but missed the cut in his other two events. His first tournament as a pro was at Harbour Town in 2016, and in 2018 he had a 36-hole lead after shooting a second round 64.

Webb Simpson: (+3000 at DraftKings). Simpson has three straight top 20 finishes the last three years, including fifth in 2018. He also finished second in 2013.

Justin Thomas: (+1700 at FanDuel). Thomas has two appearances with an 11th-place finish in 2015.

Winner

Game
06/18/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Rory McIlroy
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+1200
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+1200
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+1200
Bryson Dechambeau
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+1400
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+1500
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+1400
Justin Thomas
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+1600
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+1700
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+1600
Jon Rahm
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+1800
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+1900
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+1800
Xander Schauffele
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+2000
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+2100
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+2000
Collin Morikawa
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+2800
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+2700
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+2800
Hideki Matsuyama
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+3000
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+2800
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+3000
Patrick Reed
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+3000
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+3000
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+3000
Justin Rose
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+3000
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+3000
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+3000
Webb Simpson
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+3000
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+2300
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+2500
Daniel Berger
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+3500
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+3800
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+4000
Jordan Spieth
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+3500
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+3200
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+3500
Sungjae Im
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+3500
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+3000
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+3000
Gary Woodland
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+3500
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+3500
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+3500
Tyrrell Hatton
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+4000
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+5500
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+5000
Matt Kuchar
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+4000
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+3800
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+4500
Tony Finau
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+4500
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+5500
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+5000
Dustin Johnson
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+4500
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+4100
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+4000
Brooks Koepka
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+4500
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+3500
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+4000
Jason Kokrak
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+5000
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+7000
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+6600
Matthew Fitzpatrick
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+5500
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+6000
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+6600

View odds for every golfer at DraftKings SportsbookFanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM

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DraftKings special RBC Heritage offers

DraftKings will be running numerous special offers – including profit boosts – throughout the RBC Heritage. Users of DK Sportsbook will receive a 30% profit boost on one LIVE bet for each of the first two rounds of the tournament. For Round 3 of the tournament on Saturday, users will get an additional 30% profit boost. You can get started here.

Betting breakdown

The favorites take most the bets and volume when betting to win golf tournaments, and Harbour Town drew its strongest field ever this year. Course form proved irrelevant for many players last week at Colonial, including for the longshot winner Daniel Berger. Berger did not even have a top 50 finish in two previous events.

But Harbour Town is different, and skill sets combined with course fit will prove more predictive. Precision ball striking and placement, along with a tactical approach around the course will lead the best players towards the leaderboard this week.

Year-to-date top Ball Striking stats of the players at the top of the odds board to win at Harbour Town this week include: Rahm, Simpson, Schauffele in the top-10 followed by DeChambeau, Matsuyama and McIlroy. None of those players are top 20 on Tour in driving accuracy, but players will be forced to club down and hit fewer drivers this week.

Strokes Gained: Total shows McIlroy, DeChambeau, Thomas, Rahm, Schauffele and Simpson all in the top 10. Morikawa, Im and Matsuyama are top 20 and Morikawa is No. 2 in Strokes Gained: Approach followed by Thomas, McIlroy, Matsuyama, Simpson and Schauffele in the top 12.

That’s why you see those guys in the top 10 on the odds board to win at Harbour Town.

When was the last time you saw Dustin Johnson or Brooks Koepka at +4500 (DraftKings) to win a tournament? They top the notable names outside the top 10 favorites this week.

Notable players at longer odds

Some notable names at longer odds than can perform well with some past success at Harbour Town include (best odds to win from FanDuel, DraftKings and BetMGM):

Kevin Kisner: (+5500 at DraftKings). Kisner has made the cut in each of the last five years with a pair of top 10 finishes and a T11. The South Carolina native lost in a playoff in 2015, which was just before the summer renovation of the course. His tee-to-green game was best of the week. He’s played his best and been most comfortable playing in the southeast part of the country.

Shane Lowry: (+9000 at DraftKings). The 2019 Open champion finished third at Harbour Town last year and was tied for the lead on the back-9. Lowry was the Round 1 leader after shooting 65. He putted poorly last week at Colonial, but gained strokes off the tee, on approach, and around the greens. You can get Lowry at odds of +750 to finish top 10 and +340 top 20 at FanDuel and even -159 to make the cut at DraftKings.

Matt Kuchar: (+4000 at DraftKings). Kuchar won here in 2014 and since then he’s had three more top 10s including a second place finish last year.

Branden Grace: (+5500 at DraftKings). Grace won at Harbour Town in 2016, and he finished seventh and 11th in the two years before and after. His form was solid last week shooting three straight 66s’ before fading on Sunday.

Ian Poulter: (+8000 at BetMGM). Poulter finished 10th, 7th and 11th the last three years at Harbour Town and is 9-for-9 in cuts made.

Luke Donald: (+17500 at BetMGM). Donald has finished runner-up a record five times in this event, including in 2016 and 2017. He ranked No. 1 in the world for 13 weeks in 2011, but is no longer a threat as he’s currently ranked No. 369 in the world. But a strong example of skill set to course fit.

Course and Tournament Info

  • Course: Harbour Town Golf Links
  • Location: Hilton Head Island, S.C.
  • Par: 71 / Yardage 7,100
  • Purse: $6.9 Million / Winner $1.24 M
  • Fairways/Rough: Celebration Bermudagrass
  • Greens: TifEagle Bermudagrass

The last four years the scoring average has been 71.17, 70.85, 70.68 and 72.29 (eighth hardest on Tour in 2016). Winners, scores and Top-5 finishers include:

2019: C.T. Pan (-12), Matt Kuchar, Shane Lowry, Patrick Cantlay, Scott Piercy. Pan captured his first PGA Tour title as a longshot at odds of 125-1.

2018:  Satoshi Kodaira (-12) Si Woo Kim, Bryson DeChambeau, Luke List, Webb Simpson, Billy Horschel. Kodaira won in a playoff over Kim at odds of 250-1, and he became the sixth consecutive winner at Harbour Town to rally from at least three shots behind on the final day to win.

Key Stats

This is traditionally one of the hardest Greens in Regulation (GIR) weeks of the PGA Tour season. Along with the importance of driving accuracy, there is also a premium on scrambling. Additional key stats for success at Harbour Town include:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Short Game
  • Strokes Gained: Par 4’s (emphasis on shorter holes)
  • Strokes Gained: Putting

RBC Heritage power rankings

Tyler Duke breaks down the course and the field at Harbour Town and ranks his top 20 golfers to win the tournament this week.

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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