My 2022 RBC Heritage Betting Card And Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on April 13, 2022
rbc heritage bets

The first Major of the year may be behind us, but the grind doesn’t stop as we gear up for tee off at the 2022 RBC Heritage tomorrow. Below you’ll find all the RBC Heritage bets I have added to my personal accounts.

I’m a big fan of any golf course that is able to consistently impose a challenge to strong fields year over year, without the usual methods of added length and grown out rough. That makes Harbour Town one of my favorite courses on the PGA TOUR schedule, so I’m excited to watch the action play out this weekend. 

Click on the odds below if you’d like to add my 2022 RBC Heritage bets as well.

RBC Heritage Favorites

J. Thomas
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+900
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+1300
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+1100
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+1200
C. Morikawa
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+1200
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+1300
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+1400
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+1200
C. Smith
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+1600
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+1500
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+1400
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+1400
P. Cantlay
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+1400
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+1700
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+1600
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+1600
D. Johnson
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+1800
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+1700
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+1800
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+1600

MY BETTING CARD: HOW I BUILT MY RBC HERITAGE BETS

Any time we see a short positional course with forced layups and tight doglegs, it tends to take the advantage away from the elite players at the top of the board, and open up the playing field for longshots to contend if they bring forth a solid approach and putting week. With that in mind, I took a stance to fade the top of the board and spread out a majority of my betting exposure to high-upside longshots in the 100-1 and over range. 

In terms of unit allocation, I’m back to my usual structure for outrights (3U in to pay 24U each), props (3U in to pay out 3U+ each) and FRL (0.5U in to pay out 10U+).

I will unfortunately not be able to hop in The Lines Discord tonight, but would definitely encourage everyone to drop on in without me. Always a lively discussion as a last source before locking in your cards. I’ll be back again next week to talk Zurich Classic.

RBC HERITAGE BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Daniel Berger

My Bet: +3500

Best Odds Still Available:

I don’t always blindly bet the No. 1 player in my model. Last week I did happen to do just that, and let Justin Thomas cloud my judgement over the hottest golfer on planet earth, Scottie Scheffler. This week, Scottie Scheffler is conveniently absent, so I’m going to give it another try with Daniel Berger. Before I ran any models, Berger passed the eye test for me, with recent wins at Colonial and Pebble Beach, two of the best comps to Harbour Town, so the No. 1 model ranking was simply confirmation bias once I saw odds drop to 35-1. 

Joaquin Niemann

My Bet: +3500

Best Odds Still Available:

As noted in this week’s RBC Heritage preview, Niemann has already told me he loves it here. So he’s an auto-bet on the RBC Heritage card. I was surprised to see how popular of a bet he’s become with that narrative aside, but I liked what I saw from Niemann at the Masters last week, and the form he showed at his dominant Genesis Invitation victory should translate well on a course that requires some shot-shaping creativity.

Tom Hoge

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

I’m nearly at the point where I will auto-bet Tom Hoge on short positional courses that reward elite iron play and don’t require driving distance. He was in contention all week at THE PLAYERS and of course won most recently at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. There’s no question Hoge can content on shorter, wind-exposed courses with tiny greens. 

Mito Pereira

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

I’m at the point of no return with Mito now. I’m just going to bet him everywhere. The form is rounding out with four T30s in his last five events, and he actually found himself in the mix on Sunday at the Valero Texas Open for the first time since the Fortinet Championship. Things are looking up!

Brian Harman

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

If everyone had access to this 100-1 number on Brian Harman, I would assume everyone would be on Brian Harman this week. It tumbled quickly, and for good reason, as Harman is in great form, always plays short Pete Dye courses well, and as a local from Savannah, Georgia, has displayed great familiarity on these greens, having gained at least one stroke putting at Harbour Town in each of his last nine appearances. He’s gotten himself in contention lately with T5s at The AmEx and Valspar, so if he’s ever going to snap this five-year winless drought, Harbour Town would be on a short list of courses that make sense for him to do so. 

Kevin Streelman

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

Streelman’s got the combination of recent form and course history with four T25s in his last five starts and four T20s in his last eight trips to the RBC Heritage. Ranking No. 1 in this field in Scrambling Gained, there’s a very conceivable path for Streelman to repeat Stewart Cink’s 2021 approach and lean on his course experience to tactically work his way through this golf course.

Charles Howell III

My Bet: +13000

Best Odds Still Available:

Gotta have some veteran exposure on the RBC Heritage card, and who better than the 42-year-old from Augusta, Georgia. Howell has been coming to Harbour Town  since back in 2003, and has plenty of top-30 finishes under his belt. While he hasn’t been in contention much here, it’s encouraging to see he’s entering in great form after a T4 showing at the Valero Texas Open. With great history on other comp, short, positional courses, Howell’s worth a flyer here to continue momentum from his previous start.

Russell Knox

My Bet: +13000

Best Odds Still Available:

Sooner or later, Knox is going to hit enough putts to remain in contention on Sunday. His ball-striking is in excellent form, ranking No. 1 in GIRs gained and top-10 in SG: T2G, SG: APP, and Fairways Gained. His best RBC Heritage finish is a runner up in 2016, so it’s a good price on Knox at north of 100-1 odds, if he can channel some of that past success with trending form.

Joel Dahmen

My Bet: +18000

Best Odds Still Available:

Like Tom Hoge, if I was on Dahmen at Pebble Beach, I won’t hesitate to go back to him again here at a longer number after a solid T6 showing at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am where he led on the back nine on Sunday. Pebble Beach is one of the better comps to Harbour Town, both featuring tiny greens and an emphasis on positional tee shots and solid approach play into coastal winds. If he showed us he can contend once in these conditions already, it’s worth a flyer that he can repeat that success at a course where he’s already finished T48 and T16.

FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Russell Henley

My Bet: +5500

Best Odds Still Available:

Still jaded from the Sony Open collapse, I refuse to believe that Russell Henley is ready to win a golf tournament. With that said, he’s one of the most reliable first-round scorers on TOUR, going into a perfect course fit at Harbour Town, at relatively long odds compared to his outright price.

Luke List

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

Nobody’s mind goes to Luke List when we think about short positional courses that reward fairway-finding plodders. That said, List is still one of the best in this field in terms of Approach and Around The Green skillsets, and he should continue to create scoring opportunities by laying up off the tee.

Patton Kizzire

My Bet: +13000

Best Odds Still Available:

Kizzire is local to the area and always in play on courses that force the driver out of your hand. He can catch a streaky putter, so well worth the one-round upside here at this price.

Adam Svensson

My Bet: +18000

Best Odds Still Available:

I will continue to go back to Svensson in the FRL market, who has elite birdie-making ability. He is going to create ample scoring opportunities, excelling in the all-important proximity range of 125-200 yards, it’s just a matter of avoiding any blowup holes for him.

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PROPS (3 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Joaquin Niemann

My Bet: +175

Best Odds Still Available:

Normally I like to take even odds for a conviction prop play, but I’m going with my heart this week and jumping on this +175 for a player in Niemann who enters in great form at a course he feels comfortable. I ended up betting five T20 bets this week, which is a bit limiting on upside, but I do see great value on this prop for Niemann, who is more likely than not to finish T20, if you ask me.

Top-20 Finish: Kevin Streelman

My Bet: +350

Best Odds Still Available:

Kevin Streelman is hitting T20s at a 50% clip over his last eight RBC Heritage appearances and has three T20s and a fourth T22 over his five previous starts. Based on that alone, you would think he’d be even odds to finish T20 again. I’ll take my chances!

Top-20 Finish: Charles Howell III

My Bet: +410

Best Odds Still Available:

Riding with the Three-Sticks Mafia, it may be a stretch to believe CH III will contend to win this event at 130-1 outright odds. He is, however, a top-40 machine with six T40s in his last eight starts, so I’ll take a chance here that he can continue some positive momentum for a T20 finish on the heels of his T4 at Valero.

Top-20 Finish: Joel Dahmen

My Bet: +550

Best Odds Still Available:

Another pure value bet, Dahmen profiles perfectly for this course, and is as reliable as anyone else in this field when it comes to pounding Fairways and Greens in Regulation. It would not surprise me at all to see Dahmen towards the top of the leaderboard this Sunday after what he showed us with his T6 at Pebble Beach.

Top-20 Finish: Luke Donald

My Bet: +1000

Best Odds Still Available:

As a T20 dart throw, why not take a chance here on a top-5 player in both Course History and SG: APP, arguably the two most important stats for this week. Donald is a lost cause with driver in hand, but there aren’t many tee shots at Harbour Town that require driver, which should suit him well. He showed he can place top-20 versus a strong field at the Valspar, so I like the 10-1 odds here on a player in Donald who’s shown us year over year he has the tools to score at Harbour Town.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Daniel Berger

As I continue to not select Scottie Scheffler in OAD, I’ve continued to build a progressively deeper and deeper hole for myself in OAD. Trying to right the ship now, I’m going with the number one player in my model, Daniel Berger.

Truthfully if I could pick one player best positioned to win this week, I would say it’s Daniel Berger. Sooner or later, he’s going to start making putts again, and a return trip to southeast Bermuda grass may be just what he needs to kickstart the second half of his season.

If not Berger, I would also consider Joaquin Niemann, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Russell Henley.

RBC HERITAGE BETS

That’ll do it for the RBC Heritage bets. Best of luck this week, see you at the Zurich Classic!

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John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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