2022 RBC Canadian Open: Potential Sleeper Picks, 5 Best DFS Value Plays

Written By John Haslbauer on June 7, 2022
rbc canadian open picks tyler duncan

For the first time since 2019, we head north to one of the longest standing events on TOUR, the RBC Canadian Open. Like The Open Championship, this event also cycles through a rotation of the nation’s top golf courses to play host each year. In 2022, we’re greeted with St. George’s Golf & Country Club, a top-three rated course in all of Canada, which appears primed and ready to host the Canadian Open for the first time since 2010.  Below we’ll look at RBC Canadian Open picks and dig in deep as we look for sleepers.

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Course Introduction

Since 2010, St. George’s has had a few cosmetic updates, particularly to its greens complexes, but it remains a Par-70 just over 7,000 yards 12 years later. With so much time having passed since we last saw this course in action, there’s plenty of speculation behind how it will play. The biggest question mark at the moment seems to be around how thick they elect to grow out the rough, but the latest reports have shown players who miss the fairway will have a difficult time generating birdie opportunities. The fairways are tight at St. George’s and with greens smaller than average, there will be a premium this week on accurate ball strikers.

For a deeper dive into the course, read my RBC Canadian Open preview. Without any further delay, let’s get to our RBC Canadian Open picks with a look at longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups. Click on the odds anywhere below to bet now and lock in exclusive sign-up bonuses for new users.

Potential Sleeper RBC CANADIAN OPEN PICKS

From a golf betting perspective, there are plenty of different directions you can go to construct a card this week. You could play the “Major Tune-Up” narrative and fade the five OWGR top-10 players at the top of the board this week (Scheffler, Thomas, McIlroy, Smith, and Burns). That however, would have backfired in the previous Canadian Open which also took place the week before the 2019 U.S. Open, as Rory McIlroy coasted to an easy victory as one of the top favorites that week. Given the uncertainty of motivation, lack of course history to reference, and speculation behind how this course will actually play, I’m leaning towards building out a longer card for more ammunition to combat the relative unknown.

In terms of DFS, this is a great week to go against the prevailing narrative and seek out some leverage, contrarian plays. The consensus approach will be to go after accurate drivers and strong iron players, but I do see a potential edge in targeting bombers, as long as their OTT stats are in good form, and they’ve delivered proven results on other comp <7,200 yard courses leading in.

Below is a look at my favorite value leverage plays and longshots for the 2022 RBC Canadian Open! Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.

Tyler Duncan (, $7,500)

You play Tyler Duncan on short, positional golf courses no matter what. You just do.

The 2020 RSM Classic champion looked to be at his best in his previous start at the Charles Schwab Challenge, where we leaned on his strengths of driving accuracy and strong approach play for a T15 finish. That was his best finish since posting a T12 at the RBC Heritage in April, another event which rewards the same profile of accuracy both off the tee and on approach. It’s been a steady 2022 campaign overall for Duncan, as he’s picked up eight T30 finishes in his first 18 starts of the year.

From a stat profile standpoint, Duncan sets up well for St. George’s rating out top-10 in Par-4: 450-500 Scoring, where seven holes will be concentrated this week. He’s also top-30 in this field in terms of SG: APP, Comp Course History, Good Drives Gained, and Par-3 Scoring. I’ll be eying Duncan in the T20 () or T40 () placing markets, and as a core piece in balanced DFS lineup builds.

JT Poston (, $7,200)

After way too much time spent analyzing Carl Pettersson’s 2010 victory at St. George’s, one of the final conclusions I landed on was that JT Poston is his 2022 heir apparent. At 200-1 odds, I’m happy to roll the dice on that omen alone, but there’s more to like about Poston’s prospects this week that have also landed him inside my DFS player pool.

Like 2010 Pettersson, Poston profiles as an elite putter with negligible stats off the tee, but his accuracy has allowed him to pop on select short, positional golf courses. The 2022 season has been a boom or bust one for Poston, but he’s still managed to post two T10 finishes over his last six starts, suggesting the form is heading back in the right direction. Those top 10s came at the RBC Heritage (T3)  and Wells Fargo Championship (T9), each sub-7,200 yard courses which place the same premium on driving accuracy and strong approach play into tight greens. That same script will be required at St. George’s.

Although Poston’s shown below-average OTT stats this 2022 season, he rated out 5th in SG: OTT at the RBC Heritage and 17th at the Wells Fargo Championship, suggesting he is highly capable of setting up scoring opportunities on these shorter, positional courses. With the T2G stats starting to heat up, Poston can position himself to go low at the Canadian Open, if his putter, which led the TOUR in 2021 in average SG: P per round, can continue to cooperate this week.

Adam Svensson (, $7,100)

It’s Canadian Open week, so it’s obligatory to back at least one Canadian to anchor your DFS lineups or betting cards. Corey Conners and Adam Hadwin are the presumptive chalk this week among RBC Canadian Open picks who hail from north of the border, and for good reason with each containing the skillsets needed to attack St. George’s. But I’m happy to look even further down the board for my Canadian of choice this week in Adam Svensson.

Svensson was a dominant force rising up the Canadian junior ranks before capturing his PGA TOUR card. Like Poston, it’s been a mixed bag of results for Svensson to kick off the 2022 season, but he’s begun to show a clear bias towards the shorter courses. So far this season, Svensson has played nine events on courses under 7,200 yards and finished inside the top-50 eight times. The lone exception came at the Wells Fargo Championship, where he gained two strokes T2G, but posted the third-worst putting performance of his career to miss the cut. While it’s been a volatile season for Svensson, he does have two T10s to his name coming at the Sony Open and Honda Classic. That consistency is good enough for a top-five ranking in terms of SG: T2G on Short Courses over the last two seasons.

Beyond the short course comps, Svensson profiles well for St. George’s par-3 laden layout, ranking 15th in Par-3 Scoring. He’s No. 36 overall in model this week and carries a high floor with him to this latest sub-7,200 yard track.

Doug Ghim (, $7,000)

If we know one thing about Doug Ghim by now, it’s that he’s going to ball-strike his way to his sparse high finishes, and they’re likely to come on courses with tight fairways that reward accuracy and small greens that can mitigate the opportunity for three-putts. With that in mind, St. George’s seems like a welcomed new course on the rotation for Ghim to try out.

With the rough this week reported to be even thicker than originally expected, that puts an added emphasis on keeping the ball in the fairway, which is what Ghim does best, ranking top-10 in this field in Driving Accuracy. Considering three of his four best finishes in 2022 have come on short, positional course layouts, it’s safe to say that the target golf style of play in store for this week is what suits Ghim’s game best. He joins JJ Spaun as the only two players in the field this week to rate out top 25 in both Driving Accuracy and SG: APP.

The short game will always be a question mark for Ghim, and I’d pump the brakes before hoisting an outright on him, but the positional profile along with his current ball-striking form makes for an appealing T40 placement () or DFS salary saver option.

Satoshi Kodaira (, $6,700)

We’ve been waiting for Kodaira to leave the continental United States once again so he can finally flourish. In those last three cases on the 2022 season, Kodaira finished T15 at the Mexico Open, T35 at the Puerto Rico Open, and T12 at the Sony Open. It’s too bad Greg Norman couldn’t get a hold of that trend before trying to coerce Kodaira overseas to LIV.

Geography aside, Kodaira is yet another player who fits the profile as an accurate ball striker short on distance that I’m looking to find in a value player this week. The 2018 RBC Heritage Champion ranks top-10 in the keys stats of Fairways Gained, Opportunities Gained, and Prox: 150-200, where we would assume a high percentage of approaches will fall on this 7,000 yard layout.

The are not many options to comfortably choose from in the $6K range on Draft Kings this week, and as it stands for now, Kodaira is the only player I feel confident in enough to roster south of $7K on Draft Kings.

Good luck with your RBC Canadian Open picks!


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John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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