2022 RBC Canadian Open Betting Card, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on June 8, 2022
rbc canadian open bets

Oh yeah, there’s PGA TOUR odds to bet on this week. LIV has dominated the conversation amongst the golf world this week, even considering it’s been an onslaught of criticism with how dysfunctional the start-up invitational series has come across in its formative days. I won’t spend any more time dignifying them, however, so let’s jump ahead to the final PGA TOUR event before the third Major of the year gets under way with 2022 RBC Canadian Open bets at St. George’s Golf & Country Club.

It’s been a dozen years since we last saw St. George’s in action, and while they’ve done some major re-working of the greens complexes and grown out the rough a bit more since we were last here, the bones of the course remain the same. The course appears to be tight and challenging on paper, but I haven’t lost sight of the fact that Carl Pettersson shot a 60 here with now-discontinued Nike irons. I’ll stand by my prediction of a winning score at -18, and while I do expect this course to favor the most accurate ball-strikers, I think there’s a wide range of players who can find success at this week’s event.  With all that in mind, let’s get to the final card for my 2022 RBC Canadian Open bets.

HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

Last week I went all in on Jon Rahm, and that … did not work out. He lost strokes off the tee for the first time since August 2019, on a comfort course no less, and backdoored himself to a T9 finish. Lesson learned. I’m not going to break out of this outright cold streak by hedging my bets on a single player, so as we head up north to Canada, we’re re-orienting the strategy to fill out a longer card of outright selections. I always say volume is the best way to combat randomness, and as we enter a course we haven’t seen in 12 years, I’ll take all the volume I can get. Despite the longer card, it’s the same standard across the board once again for outrights (3U in to pay 24U each), props (3U in to pay out 3U+ each) and FRL (0.5U in to pay out 10U+).

RBC CANADIAN OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Shane Lowry

My Bet: +2000

Best Odds Still Available:

It was difficult to come to a decision at the top of the board this week, but with such a precipitous drop off in talent after the elite tier this week, I feel like an outright card needs to have exposure to at least one player shorter than 30-1 odds. Ultimately I sided with Shane Lowry, who rated out No. 3 in my model this week behind Justin Thomas and Scottie Scheffler. I like that Lowry made the trip up to Canada in 2019 when it was also contested the week before the U.S. Open, and he finished runner-up that year on another Par-70 course in Hamilton Golf & Country Club. Lowry’s game is firing in all cylinders right now, so given the unknown of how exactly this course will play, he seems to be a conservative play to stay in the mix regardless of the conditions.

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +5000

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s rare to find myself backing Sebastian Munoz beyond Thursday, but we’re in it for the long haul this week. Admittedly, I’m still clinging on to the Pettersson 60 narrative, as any course that’s allowed a given player to go super low immediately turns my mind to Munoz. From a profile standpoint, Munoz actually rated out top 30 across every key stats I pulled for this week, including top-10 ratings in Good Drives Gained and Par-4: 450-500 Scoring. Bentgrass is his best putting surface, so there are plenty of signs to suggest Munoz can string four rounds together this week.

Chris Kirk

My Bet: +5300

Best Odds Still Available:

Chris Kirk has gained strokes T2G in every event he’s played this 2022 season, up until last week at the Memorial. I’ve managed to avoid betting Kirk throughout that run with several close calls along the way, but now somewhat reluctantly, I’m on board. Odds beyond 50-1 are just too good to pass up for Kirk’s current form, as he rated out No. 6 in my model this week with top-10 ranks in SG: APP, Opportunities Gained, SG: T2G (Short Courses), Comp Course History, SG: ARG, and Sand Saves Gained. We don’t know for sure exactly how this course is going to play, but from a broad strokes view, Kirk’s game suits everything St. George should demand from the field.

Keith Mitchell

My Bet: +6600

Best Odds Still Available:

Keith Mitchell at 66-1 was the first bet I placed early Monday morning, and I had a good feeling that was going to drift quickly. While he can bomb it off the tee, it’s interesting to note that Keith Mitchell is No. 1 in the field in total driving this 2022 season, and his T2G stats are actually better on short courses than the long ones. Mitchell already has five top-15 finishes on short, positional courses this season between the RSM Classic, Sony Open, Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Honda Classic, and THE PLAYERS, so we should expect him to position himself well for scoring opportunities in Toronto this week, especially now riding off of a solid T18 at the Memorial.

JJ Spaun

My Bet: +12500

Best Odds Still Available:

JJ Spaun becomes a late stand-in for CT Pan after his Wednesday afternoon withdrawal. Maybe this is a good sign of fate, as Spaun was the last man out on my card. He breezed to victory at the Valero Texas Open five starts ago, and only an uncharacteristically cold putter has kept him from staying in contention more regularly since then. He excels in hitting fairways and precise approach shots, so if the putter returns to above-TOUR average levels, he’s got a chance to contend this week.

Tyler Duncan

My Bet: +18000

Best Odds Still Available:

Part II of the CT Pan late swap, Duncan is not a player I’m completely sold can contend to win, but his profile does line up well for a short positional course, and two T15 finishes over his last six starts suggest there is a ceiling for Duncan to tap into as he looks for his second TOUR victory since the 2019 RSM Classic.

JT Poston

My Bet: +20000

Best Odds Still Available:

It doesn’t take much to get me on board to hoist a 200-1 bomb, but Poston’s shown the upside that others this far down the odds board lack recently, posting two top-10s in his last six starts between the Wells Fargo Championship and RBC Heritage. Like many others on the card, he thrives on shorter courses that don’t put him at a disadvantage for his lack of length off the tee.

Adam Svensson

My Bet: +25000
Best Odds Still Available:

Canadian Open bets wouldn’t be complete without representation from one hometown favorite. Although Svensson is not short on distance, he has found the most success this 2022 season playing on shorter, positional courses that keep the driver in the bag more often. He’ll need the putter to show some life to give this 250-1 bomb a chance, but it’s clear he possesses the raw talent to be a PGA TOUR winner.

FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +5000

Best Odds Still Available:

Even when we leave the United States, there’s no stopping us from betting Munoz FRL. We bring some good juju this week now too having him represented on the outright card as well.

Sahith Theegala

My Bet: +7000

Best Odds Still Available:

I think this is a great value bet on a bona fide first round popper in Sahith Theegala. He’s $8,700 on Draft Kings this week, which just doesn’t add up when seeing 70-1 FRL odds.

Doug Ghim

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

The putter is too erratic for me to truly believe Doug Ghim can hang around in contention for four days. But, his profile as an accurate ball striker is perfect for this course, so for one round, sure!

JT Poston

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

JT Poston is always a value FRL threat, considering he possesses one of the hottest putters on TOUR. Combine that with a course that suits his game T2G and 100-1 odds, and this becomes an easy bet.

Adam Svensson

My Bet: +11000

Best Odds Still Available:

There’s a lot of pressure on the local Canadians to perform well and represent their country this week. That makes me a little nervous about my outright on Svensson down the stretch, but maybe he’ll be at his best on Thursday while he’s still playing freely.

PROPS (3 UNITS)

Top-40 Finish: Tyler Duncan

My Bet: +155

Best Odds Still Available:

It feels wrong to say that Tyler Duncan is my conviction bet of the week in any capacity, even if it is just a top-40 bet, so I won’t say it! But with top-15 finishes at recent short, positional events like the Charles Schwab Challenge and RBC Heritage, it’s clear his game is trending in a good direction, and another week of positional golf should suit him well.

Top-20 Finish: JJ Spaun

My Bet: +370

Best Odds Still Available:

The Valero Texas Open winner is a good fit for St. George’s. I feel good about Spaun in the T20 market, as he rates out top-15 in the key stats of SG: APP, Good Drives Gained, and Par 5 Scoring. He’s one of only two players in the field this week to rank top-25 in both Fairways Gained and SG: APP, which should create a clear path to a T20 if he can continue to channel that accuracy this week.

Top-40 Finish: Satoshi Kodaira

My Bet: +400

Best Odds Still Available:

I just think this number is way too long for a top-40 on a player who’s proven if you take distance away, can still compete with anyone in this field. Kodaira is top 10 in Opportunities Gained and top 20 in Good Drives Gained, which should set him up with enough opportunities to find his way inside the top-40.

Top-20 Finish: JT Poston

My Bet: +500

Best Odds Still Available:

For all the reasons I like Poston as an outright bet, I’m happy to double down for some top-20 insurance. He’s a boom or bust player, but the gut says this is a week he can make some noise on a course that will suit him well.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Shane Lowry

Max Homa did some, but not enough at the Memorial last week, so I continue to remain in a big OAD hole. For RBC Canadian Open bets, there’s speculation that the top names may be tuning up, and we don’t have enough data on the course to say for certain this is a spot you want to use an elite name. So after bypassing the top of the board, I’m going to Shane Lowry who continues to play solid all around golf, and has the skillsets to win this tournament, and what I would expect to be low ownership in OAD.

If not Lowry, I would also consider Corey Conners, Tyrrell Hatton, or Chris Kirk.

THE GOLF BETTING CARD: RBC CANADIAN OPEN BETS

That’ll do it for my golf betting card for the 2022 RBC Canadian Open. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting, and see you on Sunday for the 2022 U.S. Open Preview!


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John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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