RB Leipzig Vs Manchester City: 2023 Champions League Round Of 16 Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on February 22, 2023
champions league odds

The 2023 Champions League Round of 16 continues on Wednesday, Feb. 22 with Leg 1 of RB Leipzig Vs Manchester City at RB Arena in Leipzig, Germany. Bettors can catch the broadcast at 3 p.m. ET on various streaming platforms like fuboTV, Paramount+ and Univision. A winner would have the edge before the two meet again in the second leg on March 14 in Manchester, England. As part of TheLines.com soccer coverage, let’s take a look at Champions League odds for this match, with Man City a favorite to win the first leg.

RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Champions League knockout rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If you bet on either team to win and the match is a draw, you lose the bet. It is not a push.

RB Leipzig Team Preview

After finishing second in Group F, RB Leipzig’s reward for making it to the Round of 16 is a tie with Manchester City. A reward that arguably is more akin to a punishment when you consider how tough the draw has been for the German outfit.

Then again, this is the same RB Leipzig side that pushed Real Madrid rather close in the group stage and finished just a single point behind the current holders. In addition to this, they also beat Los Blancos 3-2 on their own turf on Matchday 5. 

However, dropped points elsewhere would prove to be the undoing of Marco Rose’s men and although progress to the next round should not be underestimated, there is perhaps a tint of regret that goes with it.

With that being said, RB Leipzig will look to play with no regrets when they face Manchester City both home and away, and the team backed by a famous energy drink will be looking for a considerable thrust on Wednesday evening.

If they can repeat the feat of just over a year ago, a win on their home turf would set up the reverse tie rather nicely, and with Christopher Nkunku offering a constant nuisance in attack, he will certainly aim to be Leipzig’s ace in midweek.

With the French forward likely to be on the move in the summer, his current employers will look to squeeze further value out of him in the next few months and a goal or two in this tie will only add more dollars to his price tag. 

Manchester City Team Preview

After wrestling back the top spot from Arsenal in the Premier League, Manchester City’s focus will now pivot back to the Champions League. Although Pep Guardiola has delivered many trophies to the Etihad, Europe’s richest prize continues to elude him. 

With the club currently operating with a lengthy list of domestic financial charges named against them, a return to European competition will serve as a welcome distraction for the team that topped Group G.

Of the 18 points that were on offer before Christmas, 14 were collected by City and although it was an impressive tally, it means nothing by the time the Round of 16 ties begin to come around.

If only because the club has been here so many times before – impressive in the group stage but somehow always falling short on the way to the holy grail. A conundrum that City cannot seem to solve, no matter how hard they try.

However, they do have a new piece of weaponry this season and one that comes in the shape of Erling Haaland. The Norwegian powerhouse may have slightly disrupted City’s overall game at times but he certainly offers plenty of goals.

Not only that, but the former Borussia Dortmund forward is not shy when it comes to supplying them for his teammates, and with previous experience of tormenting RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga, he will be keen to go up against familiar foes on Wednesday. 

Champions League Knockout Rounds Bracket

Since the UCL draws for new matchups after the round of 16, there’s no set bracket for fans to follow just yet.

RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

RB Leipzig6139+410.37.1+3.3
Man City6142+1213.63.3+10.3

Matchup History

The history between RB Leipzig and Manchester City is a relatively recent one, and with the two being paired together in last season’s Champions League group stage, both will have a good idea of their upcoming opponents.

While of the two clashes that took place in late 2021, the history books have recorded a win each. The first meeting saw City run out 6-3 winners in a highly entertaining clash at the Etihad, the second saw a 2-1 reverse for RB Leipzig in Germany.

Although the defeat that Pep Guardiola’s men should be attached with a certain caveat. With qualification to the Round of 16 already secured and RB Leipzig out of the competition, the clash was nothing more than a continental dead rubber. 

RB Leipzig vs. Manchester City Odds: Bets To Consider

Over 3.5 Goals: +240

When the two teams met in last season’s Champions League, they shared 12 goals across two group stage matches and although it is a rather small sample to work with, it certainly highlights the attacking prowess of both teams. 

Not only that but both RB Leipzig and Manchester City have an ace in the hole when it comes to grabbing goals. In the home corner, there is none other than Christopher Nkunku. In the opposite corner, is the ludicrous talents of Erling Haaland. 

In addition to this, City’s defense has been depleted in the January transfer window and with Joao Cancelo now wearing Bayern Munich’s colors for the next few months at least, Pep Guardiola has a void to fill at left-back.

One that the Spaniard tried to fill with Bernardo Silva in the recent Premier League win over Arsenal. A decision that did not really work and City only found another gear, once a tactical shift was made.

With that being said, RB Leipzig’s defense is far from perfect and manager Marco Rose will have to hope that his team is not out of the tie before the return leg takes place at the Etihad Stadium.

Regardless of whether the hosts live to fight another day, this is certainly going to be a midweek clash that lends itself to plenty of goals and this is why I am backing four or more in total at odds of +240. 

Best of luck betting Champions League odds.

Manchester City, 1-2, 1-3, 1-4 Win: +350

As someone who likes to use the logic of one bet for the next, this is precisely what I am planning on doing for my next offering. If there are going to be plenty of goals, then I can see Manchester City getting the lion’s share of them,

If four or more goals need to be scored for the first bet to come good, then certain scorelines can already be scrubbed out of the equation. While even if a quartet is registered, I do not envisage a 2-2 draw in midweek.

However, I do envisage a win for Pep Guardiola’s men and both teams finding the net come full time. A 2-1 away win would not be enough to get my opening pick over the line, but it is still enough to convert this wager into profit.

At the same time, if both teams do manage to find the net and City also goes up through the gears, a 3-1 or 4-1 win is the perfect territory for both predictions to eventually get themselves over the line.

Each team has a player that causes serious damage to the opposition’s defense. Each defense is capable of doing serious damage to itself. Add the fact that City will once again look to make its mark in Europe and they could easily have one foot in the last eight.

A comfortable win in Germany would allow the Premier League title challengers to rest key players in the second leg – something that would aid their attempt to rule English soccer’s roost once more. The best way to do that is by racking up plenty of goals in Leipzig on Tuesday night.

Best of luck betting Champions League odds.

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