Ravens vs. Titans: Wild Card Playoff Round NFL Betting Preview – January 10, 2021

Posted By Staff on January 10, 2021

The AFC Wild Card round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs features a showdown between the Baltimore Ravens (11-5), who are favorites, and the Tennessee Titans (11-5) on January 10, 2021 at 1:05 PM ET on ABC/ESPN. The game has a point total of .

The game marks the 26th meeting between the teams in a series the Titans lead 13-12. The most recent game between the teams unfolded in Week 11 of this season, when Tennessee recorded a 30-24 overtime win at M & T Bank Stadium.

In that contest, the Titans’ Ryan Tannehill threw for 259 yards and two touchdowns while adding 35 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry, who eclipsed the 2,000-yard mark for the season in Week 17, rushed for 133 yards and a 29-yard game-winning run in OT. Corey Davis also stood out, recording five receptions for 113 yards.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of January 5, 2021, 1:41 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Ravens vs Titans Betting Odds

Ravens vs Titans Props

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Betting breakdown

This 2019 AFC Divisional Round Game rematch features a Ravens team that comes into the playoffs with five straight wins and a Titans squad that built up some solid momentum in its own right with a 5-2 mark over their last seven games.

The relatively narrow line for this game reflects each team’s recent impressive body of work. However, beyond that, it’s also arguably the most controversial. Baltimore opened a as 3.5-point road favorite. The number is somewhat surprising for several reasons, not the least of which is Tennessee’s 2-0 mark against the Ravens in their last pair of meetings and the Titans’ status as a home team,

There are no major injury concerns on either side heading into the contest. The most notable potential absence on either side is that of trusted No. 3 receiver Willie Snead for the Ravens, who missed the Week 17 win over the Bengals with the ankle injury that currently has him saddled with a questionable designation. However, coach John Harbaugh’s club is well-equipped to handle matters if Snead is forced to sit for a second straight contest – veteran Dez Bryant and speedy rookie Devin Duvernay are both ready to step in if necessary.

Although the Ravens particularly have a well-earned reputation as one of the league’s top-10 defenses, the combination of the explosive offensive players on either side and the Titans’ very questionable defensive unit has the projected total for this game soaring as of Tuesday afternoon. The number opened at 54.5 points, and despite some temporary tumbles down to 54.0, it’s bounced up to a new high of 55.0 points at some sportsbooks comfortably makes it the highest of the six-game weekend slate.

Betting trends

The Ravens were 10-6 (62.5 percent) against the spread this season, including 5-3 (62.5 percent) as a road team and 8-4 (66.7 percent) in conference matchups. Then, the Over was 7-9 (43.8 percent) in Baltimore’s games this season, including 3-5 (37.5 percent) in its road games and 4-8 (33.3 percent) in its conference matchups.

The Titans were 7-9 (43.8 percent) against the spread this season, including 4-4 as a home team and 5-7 (41.7 percent) in conference matchups. Then, the Over was 12-3-1 (80.0 percent) in Tennessee’s games this season, including 6-1-1 (85.7 percent) in its games as a home team and 9-2-1 (81.8 percent) against AFC opponents.

Ravens vs. Titans matchup

On the surface, there doesn’t appear to be much difference between the Ravens team that went a disappointing 6-5 over their first 11 games and the one that finished the campaign on a 5-0 run. However, there actually was one significant tweak that seemed to make a major difference, especially considering how reliant Baltimore is on the run. Specifically, Harbaugh settled on rookie J.K. Dobbins as his lead back, feeding him double-digit carries in each of the last six contests. The rookie averaged an outstanding 6.4 yards per carry during that span while also scoring seven touchdowns and capping off that stretch with a career-high 160 yards against the Bengals in Week 17.

Given the Ravens once again ran the ball at an NFL-high rate of 55.89 percent this season and now have a clear lead back that complements Jackson’s own ground-game exploits perfectly, they are a particularly dangerous opponent for a Titans defense that was particularly vulnerable to the run as the season ended. The Titans yielded 151.0 rushing yards per contest over the last three games of the campaign, a significant bump from their 120.8 seasonal figure.

That said, the Titans’ faulty work against the pass all season certainly also makes them ripe for the picking through the air. Jackson threw for just 2,757 yards across 15 games, but he did throw multiple touchdown passes in four of the last five contests and has some high-upside passing game weapons in Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. Tennessee finished the regular season allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game (277.4), including 305.1 per home contest.

On the other side, Tennessee also operated a heavily run-centric attack that featured a 50.53 percent rush play rate, third highest in the league. The reason for such reliance on the run isn’t a mystery. Henry once again played at an MVP level and eclipsed 200 rushing yards in two of his last four games. The 2,000-yard rusher also scored a career-high 17 touchdowns and ripped of 16 runs of more than 20 yards. The Ravens allowed 119.0 rushing yards per game and 4.5 RB yards per carry overall, so it’s far from a prohibitive matchup. Additionally, not only did Henry accumulate 133 yards against Baltimore in the regular-season matchup, but he also compiled 195 in last year’s AFC Divisional Round upset victory.

The matchup is a bit thornier for Tannehill. Baltimore allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game (221.0) for the season, including 156 over the last three. And while Baltimore wasn’t quite the ball-hawking unit it’s been in previous years – the Ravens notched a modest 10 picks overall – they also tallied 39 sacks, allowing them to consistently keep QBs uncomfortable. Baltimore was also ranked in the top half of the league with a 63.76 percent completion rate allowed and gave up the third-lowest yards per attempt (5.9). The latter figure threatens Tennessee’s penchant for big passing plays to A.J. Brown and Corey Davis — the duo combined for 27 receptions of 20 more yards.

Betting the Total (Over/Under)

  • Baltimore and its opponents have combined to score more than 54.5 in two games (12.5% of matchups).
  • In eight (50%) games this season, the Titans have combined with their opponents to go over 54.5 points.
  • These two teams score a combined average of 59.9 points per game, higher than the total for this matchup by 5.4 points.
  • The over/under for this game is set at 54.5 points, 8.2 points higher than the two teams’ opponents scoring average.
  • Ravens games this season have posted an average total of 48.2, which is 6.3 points fewer than the total for this matchup.
  • The average total for Titans games is 58.1 points, 3.6 more than this game’s over/under.
  • The Titans are the league’s fourth-highest scoring team this season compared to the seventh-ranked Ravens.
  • This outing features the NFL’s 24th-ranked (Tennessee) and second-ranked (Baltimore) scoring defenses.

Ravens Betting Insights

  • Just nine of Baltimore’s 16 games this year have gone over the point total (43.8% of its outings).
  • Baltimore has put together a 10-5-1 record against the spread this season.
  • The Ravens are 8-5-1 ATS when favored by at least 3.5 points.

Titans Betting Insights

  • Tennessee has compiled a losing 7-9 record against the spread this season.
  • The Titans are just 4-5 ATS when an underdog by at least 3.5 points.
  • 13 of Tennessee’s 16 games this year have gone over the point total (81.2% of its opportunities).

Ravens vs Titans: Head to Head

Ravens vs Titans: Last Meeting
Date Favorite Home Team Spread Total Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Yards Result
11/22/2020 Ravens Ravens -6 50.50 -250 +215 423-306 TEN 30-24 TEN

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When the Ravens Have the Ball

  • The Ravens average points scored this season (29.2) and the Titans points allowed (27.4) are within 1.8 points of each other.
  • When they meet or exceed their scoring average this season, Baltimore is 8-0 and 6-1-1 against the spread.
  • Tennessee is 7-1 overall and 6-2 against the spread this season in games where they allow fewer than 27.4 points.
  • The Ravens offense has averaged 362.9 total yards per game this season, 35.3 yards fewer than the 398.2 allowed by the Titans defense. The Ravens average 5.8 yards per play while the Titans allow 5.9 per play.
  • When the Baltimore offense puts together a game with at least their 2020 average in yardage, they are 7-1 overall and 7-1 against the spread this season.
  • When the Tennessee defense allows less than their season average for total yards this season they are 5-3 against the spread and 6-2 overall.
  • The Titans have allowed opposing rushing attacks to average 120.8 yards per game in 2020 compared to the 191.7 yards the Ravens offense has averaged on the ground per contest.
  • When Baltimore rushers gain at least a combined 191.7 yards this season, they are 5-1 overall and 5-1 against the spread.
  • When Tennessee limits opposing teams to 120.8 rushing yards or fewer this year, they are 5-5 against the spread and 7-3 overall.
  • The Ravens have turned the ball over 1.1 times per game this season, while the Titans have averaged 1.4 takeaways per contest.
  • When Baltimore turns the football over 1.1 times or fewer this season, they are 10-3 overall and 9-4 against the spread.
  • Tennessee is 3-3 against the spread and 5-1 overall this season when they force at least 1.4 turnovers in a game.

When the Titans Have the Ball

  • The Titans score 11.8 more points per game (30.7) than the Ravens surrender (18.9).
  • When Tennessee records at least 30.7 points, it is 5-4 against the spread and 8-1 overall.
  • This season, Baltimore has a 6-1-1 record against the spread and an 8-0 record overall in games when it holds opponents to 29.2 or fewer points.
  • The Titans average 66.3 more yards per game (396.1), than the Ravens allow per outing (329.8). On average, the Titans pick up 6.1 yards per play, while the Ravens allow 5.2 per play.
  • Baltimore’s record last season when they accumulated at least their season average in total yards: 7-1 overall and 5-3 ATS.
  • In games Baltimore limits its opponents to 329.8 or fewer yards, it has a 6-2 record ATS and a 6-2 record overall.
  • This season, the Titans rack up 168.1 yards per game on the ground, 59.3 more per game than the Ravens allow per contest (108.8).
  • Tennessee has a 5-2 ATS record and a 6-1 overall record when the team runs for at least 168.1 yards.
  • Baltimore is 5-1-1 against the spread and 5-2 overall when holding opponents to 108.8 rushing yards or less.
  • This year, the Titans turn the ball over 0.8 times per game, only 0.6 fewer turnovers per game than the 1.4 the Ravens force on average.
  • Tennessee has a 4-4 record against the spread and a 6-2 record overall when it turns the ball over 0.8 times or less.
  • When it forces 1.4 or more turnovers, Baltimore has a 6-0 record against the spread and a 5-1 record overall.

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Ravens Players to Watch

  • Lamar Jackson has thrown for 2,757 yards while completing 64.4% of his passes (242-of-376), with 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 16 games this year (172.3 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 159 times for 1,005 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 62.8 yards per game.
  • J.K. Dobbins has 805 yards on 134 carries (50.3 ypg), with nine rushing touchdowns over the course of 16 games.
  • This season, Marquise Brown has 58 catches (on 99 targets) to lead the team with 769 yards (48.1 per game) while scoring eight touchdowns in 16 games.
  • Mark Andrews’ statline this year shows 58 catches for 701 yards and seven touchdowns in 16 games. He averages 43.8 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 89 times.
  • Miles Boykin has caught 19 passes on 33 targets for 266 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 16.6 yards per game in 16 contests in 2020.
  • Matthew Judon has registered a team-leading 6.0 sacks, while adding 9.0 TFL and 50 tackles over 16 games.
  • In 16 games over the course of the 2020 campaign, Patrick Queen has collected 105 tackles, 9.0 TFL, three sacks, and one interception and leads the team in tackles.
  • Marcus Peters has a team-high four interceptions and has tacked on 52 tackles, 1.0 TFL, one sack, and nine passes defended 14 in games this season.

Titans Players to Watch

  • Ryan Tannehill has thrown for 3,817 yards while completing 65.5% of his passes (315-of-481), with 33 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 16 games this year (238.6 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 43 times for 266 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 16.6 yards per game.
  • Derrick Henry has churned out a team-high 2,027 rushing yards (126.7 yards per game) and scored 17 touchdowns in 16 games.
  • A.J. Brown has been targeted 106 times and has 70 catches to lead the team with 1,073 yards (76.6 ypg) and scored 11 touchdowns in 14 games this season.
  • Corey Davis has also tacked on 65 catches for 984 yards and five touchdowns in 16 games this year. He has been targeted 92 times and puts up 61.5 receiving yards per game.
  • Jonnu Smith has caught 41 passes on 65 targets for 448 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 29.9 yards per game in 15 contests in 2020.
  • Harold Landry has 5.0 sacks to lead the team, and has also added 10.0 TFL, 67 tackles, and one interception over 16 games.
  • Kevin Byard has collected 110 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and one interception to lead the team in tackles so far in 16 games over the course of the 2020 campaign.

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