Ravens Super Bowl Odds: Might Betting On Lamar Jackson, Todd Monken Pay Off?
After months of uncertainty towards Lamar Jackson’s future in the Charm City, Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta handed the duel-threat quarterback a five-year, $260 million contract on May 4, making him the highest-paid player in NFL history. With less than two months left to bet Week 1 odds, Jackson and Baltimore Ravens’ odds () showcase the eighth-shortest price to win the Super Bowl.
With that in mind, let’s explore whether they’re worth buying into with highly-respected offensive coordinator Todd Monken joining the team. Click any of the following Super Bowl odds to place a wager from one of the best sports betting sites. Prices listed are the best available in your state.
Free Pick’Em Contests! Compete for prizes every day by entering our free betting games. MLB, NBA, NHL, and more!
Ravens odds: high-ceiling offense
In Jackson’s four seasons with then-OC Greg Roman, Baltimore ran a fortune of 12 or 13 personnel, utilizing more than one tight end. In fact, roughly 62% of the snaps last season came with multiple TEs on the field. While Jackson tallied a top-12 dropback EPA, he was certainly hindered by Roman’s lack of creativity. His below-average CPOE (completion percentage over expected) didn’t help in that regard, either.
Enter Monken, who supplants Roman after helping Georgia win back-to-back national championships. During his three seasons in Athens, he developed the less-athletic Stetson Bennett into a borderline Heisman Trophy candidate. Throughout the offseason, Monken has indicated how pro defenses have become more adept at matching up against mobile QBs like Jackson. He’s also noted his commitment to consistently operating an uptempo spread offense, which Roman didn’t employ enough to best suit Jackson.
While Jackson has never amassed over 3,200 passing yards in a single campaign, the potential for Monken to unlock his skillset makes the Ravens’ odds extremely appealing.
The 2020 NFL MVP boasts an enhanced compliment of weapons to boot. They include Odell Beckham Jr., first-rounder Zay Flowers, and even Nelson Agholor. There’s still Rashod Bateman, who’s missed 16 games over his first two seasons, Mark Andrews, and fellow tight end Isaiah Likely. I’ll hit on their collective injury concerns shortly.
In particular, the ultra-efficient Andrews possesses Travis Kelce-like upside with Monken, as Baltimore failed to rank higher than No. 15 in PROE (pass rate over expectation) — nor better than No. 22 in situation-neutral pace — under Roman. Comparatively speaking, Monken’s offenses were relatively pass-heavy and fast-paced in his four seasons as a NFL OC. That included 10.6 air yards per throw amid his Bucs’ tenure.
Baltimore’s Unlucky Rollercoaster
For Monken’s game plan to reach its promise, Jackson must do his part by staying healthy. He’s dealt with season-ending injuries in consecutive years, including a knee injury on Dec. 4, 2022. However, Monken’s system should lend itself to Jackson cutting down on his time as a spectator, assuming he continues to progress through the air.
Overall, the Ravens finished No. 25 in adjusted games lost to injury last season after placing dead-last in 2021. On top of Jackson, they combined to deliver the fifth-most injured running back, defensive line, and defensive back committees across the league.
One can label a personnel grouping as “injury-prone.” Baltimore’s receiving core is no exception to that notion. Nevertheless, cumulative injury luck — or lack thereof — isn’t predicative. The Ravens will find themselves in a superior position, with respect to the playoff picture, if they stay relatively healthy on both sides of the ball. Their schedule aids their postseason prospects, as the Dolphins represent their lone opponent with rest advantage come Week 17.
Moreover, John Harbaugh’s group blew four leads in 2022, witnessing these opponents (Dolphins, Bills, Jaguars, Giants) overcome an implied probability of as low as 2.94% among live moneyline odds. At least a pair of those losses correlated with Roman’s conservative play-calling down the stretch.
Consider that Baltimore still accrued a 10-7 straight-up record despite their shortcomings. If not for Cincinnati’s turnover luck in the wild-card round, the Ravens may have very well punched their ticket forward as touchdown underdogs.
Can Ravens Surpass Fellow AFC Contenders?
Defensively, Baltimore will assuredly have its hands full against the NFL’s premier offenses. Last year, five teams with a top-eight offensive EPA stemmed from the AFC, including the defending Super Bowl champs.
The Ravens’ insufficient pass rush, ranking bottom-eight in pressure rate, spearheads those concerns to this point. Then again, they’re expected to re-sign outside linebacker Justin Houston. Combine that forecast with the promising Odafe Oweh and David Ojabo, and there’s plenty of upside for this unit.
If newly-signed corner Rock Ya-Sin avoids the injury bug across from perennial All-Pro Marlon Humphrey, their defensive backfield should see a slight boost, too. Ya-Sin, who delivered an above-average coverage grade just two campaigns ago, replaces the aging Marcus Peters.
Even with these two potential predicaments, Baltimore managed to surrender the fifth-fewest EPA per play — from Week 9 onward — following the acquisition of Roquan Smith. He’s arguably the most well-rounded linebacker in the NFL.
Although the AFC is loaded as a whole, my power ratings — juxtaposed with the betting market — show value in Ravens’ odds. Keep in mind, the division-rival Bengals have received their fair share of injury luck, both as a team and in terms of the opposing QB. The Jaguars, priced near Baltimore’s Super Bowl odds, ranked two spots below Cincinnati in that latter department as well.
My conclusion On Ravens Odds
Shortly after Jackson signed his extension, I bet the Ravens’ odds at +2500 to win it all. That price was widely available at the time, and I posted it in TheLines’ free sports betting Discord. You can get instant notifications for all of our staff wagers there. That said, I’d still back Baltimore at +2000 or better — with positive variance on the horizon.
Watch: Beat The Closing Number
Breakdowns for NFL futures markets have begun on TheLines’ Podcast Network. Subscribe to the audio-only feed here.
More Sports Betting Promos
If you’re in a state with legal sports wagering, TheLines has you covered with the best sportsbook promo codes. Just click on any of the following promos and bonus codes to get started.