Each week during the 2020-21 NFL regular season, The Lines provided a look at movement in betting markets. Last week we highlighted Wild Card betting market movement.
Now, eight teams remain in the Divisional Round with the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers the top seeds and favorites to reach this year’s Super Bowl.
“We have four fantastic matchups in the Divisional Playoffs this year,” BetMGM VP of Trading Jason Scott told TheLines. “The public is on the favorites but sharp bettors are wagering on the Ravens and Rams spreads.”
Here is a look at market movement ahead of the four Divisional Round games, which take place Jan. 16 – 17.
NFL Divisional odds
NFL Divisional Round market movement
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers – Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET
The Rams (11-6) and Packers (13-3) kick off Saturday’s coverage at 4:35 p.m. ET on FOX. There will be snow in Green Bay Friday night but will clear Saturday. Freezing temperatures in the upper 20s and light winds less than 10 MPH will be present at kickoff.
The Packers were No. 1 in the NFL in scoring at 31.8 points per game. The Rams were the No. 1-scoring defense allowing just 18.5 points per game.
The line is holding steady at Packers and a total of .
That said, PointsBet director of communications Patrick Eichner told TheLines they opened Green Bay -7 and it moved to -6.5 within 24 hours.
“Definitely some reverse line movement going on as we have over 80% of point spread bets and handle backing the Packers,” Eichner said.
- Nearly 82% of spread bets and 86% of money (handle) is on the Packers at FanDuel Sportsbook
- 75% of the total bets and 79% of the total handle come in on the OVER at PointsBet
- DraftKings Sportsbook reports 77% of bets and 64% of handle on the OVER, and 84% of bets and 91% of handle backing the Packers on the point spread.
- The Packers lead all divisional round teams in moneyline support with nearly 82% of the ML bets betting Green Bay (-315) to win straight up
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has taken 16% of the Super Bowl MVP handle, trailing only Patrick Mahomes (17%) at DraftKings.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
The Ravens (12-5) and Bills (14-3) open the AFC portion of the Divisional Round Saturday at 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC. It will be cloudy and cold at kickoff (32 degrees) with a 60% chance of snow showers. It will feel colder, with winds 15-25 MPH and higher wind gusts possible.
The Ravens enter the contest with seven straight point spread covers. The Bills closed the season with a league-high eight straight ATS wins until their 27-24 win/no cover against the Colts in the Wild Card round.
The Ravens have held their last three opponents to 228 YPG, including a season-low 209 to the Titans last week. That Baltimore win was head coach John Harbaugh’s NFL record 8th playoff road win.
Bills QB Josh Allen handled more blitzes than any other quarterback during the regular season. The Ravens blitz 41% of dropbacks, which was most in the league.
The line opened Bills -3 and moved to -2.5 at some books. FanDuel Sportsbook currently has -115 odds on the Bills point spread while DraftKings is showing -3 (-105).
- Nearly 73% of the bets and 64% of the money is betting on the Bills at DraftKings Sportsbook. BetMGM has very close to an even 50/50 split on the Bills and Ravens point spread handle. But FanDuel has taken nearly 70% of the spread bets and money on the Bills.
- Despite the weather forecast, nearly 80% of the bets and 86% of the money is betting Over the total at DraftKings and 82% is on the Over at BetMGM. The total on Friday morning dipped from 50 to 49.5 at FanDuel, DraftKings, PointsBet, BetMGM and William Hill sportsbooks.
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs – Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET
The Browns (12-5) and Chiefs (14-2) start Sunday’s slate at 3:05 p.m. ET on CBS. Cloudy skies with temperatures near 40 degrees and winds 10-20 MPH are set for Arrowhead Stadium. There will be snow on Friday, leading into the weekend and clearing for Sunday.
The line opened with Chiefs -9.5 and -10 at most books. It was at 10 at most major books Friday morning.
“Good two-way action on this game,” noted Eichner. “And bettors like the Over in this game.”
- 53% of point spread bets on Chiefs and 52% of spread money on Browns at PointsBet.
- Near 55% of the spread money is on the Chiefs at DraftKings Sportbook with reverse line movement briefly dropping the line to Chiefs -9
- 58% of the spread bets and money is on the Browns at FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Nearly 70% of the total bets and 77% of the total handle come in on the Over at PointsBet, which opened at 55.5. BetMGM has taken nearly 80% of bets and 90% of money on the Over after opening 54.5.
- DraftKings, FanDuel and William Hill are at 57 and DraftKings has taken more than 90% of the money Over the total, with William Hill near 87% Over – both highest total support of the four playoff games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints – Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET
The Buccaneers (12-5) and Saints (12-4) is a divisional round dandy in the Superdome between two NFC South rivals and two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. It’s also the first time two 40-year-old-plus quarterbacks meet in the playoffs. Tom Brady (581) and Drew Brees (571) are the all-time NFL leaders in touchdown passes.
‘Betting will be big on this game with Brady and Brees, as it’s the last playoff game of the weekend,” DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told TheLines. “It will be the ‘get-out’ game for bettors, and also complete many teasers and parlays.”
The Saints swept the season series but bettors are not shying away from Brady and the Bucs, who were initially +3.5 at PointsBet.
“We quickly saw the Bucs get bet into the key number +3 by sharps,” said Eichner. “Another game with great two-way action.”
- 53% of the spread bets come in on the Buccaneers but 71% of the spread handle comes in on the Saints at PointsBet
- 56% of the spread bets are on the Bucs at FanDuel
- Close to a 50/50% split on spread bets slightly favoring the Buccaneers at DraftKings and Saints at BetMGM
- The total was up from 51 to 52 at most books Friday morning and PointsBet had taken just over 70% of bets and money on the Over. Draftings Sportsbook has approximately 80% of the bets and money on the Over. BetMGM also has approximately 80% of the money on the Over after opening at 50.5.
- Nearly 80% of the moneyline bets are on the Buccaneers (+145) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Notable Bets at BetMGM
- $250K to win $217,390 on Saints -3
- $250K to win $630K on 2-team parlay (Saints -3, Bills -2)