The Los Angeles Rams (7-2) travel to the San Francisco 49ers (3-5) on Monday Night Football in Week 10. It’s a matchup between an ever-adapting offense against a defense theoretically crafted to stop the Rams offense. For the primetime matchup, same game parlay promos are available below, and we’ll try to navigate the likely game script.
Let’s take a look at the Rams offense and how it matches up with the 49ers defense. From this, we can stem where to look for a Rams-49ers same game parlay come Monday night.
A same game parlay is when a bettor combines two or more bets in the same game in order to increase their potential payout. Check out our SGP strategy page for more details.
- Rams at 49ers: Full Monday Night Football Betting Preview
Rams – 49ers Same Game Parlay Breakdown
The Sean McVay Offense
The backbone of Sean McVay’s ultra-efficient offense comes from a wide zone concept. The Rams establish it every game, even if they don’t abide by the same droning “establish the run” of days past. Off that zone comes bootleg action with plenty of “sail” and mesh concepts that allow precise route runners like Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods to run free. With the addition of Matthew Stafford, it’s an effective offense that stands near the top of efficiency metrics like EPA and DVOA.
McVay also adjusts to his defensive matchups and implements passing schemes that model half-shells on defense. While the strong side of the formation runs a sail concept (three-layered routes designed to force defensive backs to make tough decisions), the backside may run a mesh (crossing rub routes meant to take man-to-man defenses out of commission). It’s a difficult offense to defend and one that evolved with the evolution of Cover 5 and half-man, half-zone defenses.
That wrinkle is what we can expect to see Monday against the 49ers, who run a defensive wrinkle of their own to counteract wide zone teams.
What San Francisco does defensively
The 49ers like to run what’s known as an “over front” to counteract wide zone schemes. What that over front entails is the Niners’ front four down linemen shift over one gap to the strong side while relying on linebackers and box safeties to maintain backside gap assignments. It was very effective in their Week 8 matchup against Khalil Herbert and the Chicago Bears, who picked up only five rushes of five or more yards.
This is an excellent counterbalance to McVay’s wide zone-heavy scheme and complementary bootleg action. The other advantage to running over fronts is that it’s an easy and predictable shift for the defense against pre-snap motion which the Rams are near the top of the NFL in doing; specifically with jet motions that would otherwise require multiple adjustments at the last second for defenders.
The 49ers usually shift into their over fronts late pre-snap which coincides with the time of the offensive pre-snap motion.
This scheme has been effective against the Rams in the past. Removed one Cam Akers 61-yard carry, the 49ers held the Rams to 3.9 yards per carry in two outings last year. With so many matchups with McVay in his career, Kyle Shanahan knows what to expect and how to prepare his team on both sides of the ball.
What to expect
The 49ers went 2-0 against the Rams last season, holding them to 16 and 20 points. Despite the departure of Robert Saleh, the core of the defensive personnel is similar to last year sans a couple of injuries up front. DeMeco Ryan has kept the defense similar and rolling from Saleh, notably the over front shift.
McVay is historically terrific at making subtle adjustments to radically improve his offensive performance (Week 3 against Tampa Bay is one example). Like in that game, the Rams may adjust to more dropback passing and run-pass option (RPO) to counteract that wide zone-neutralizing over front.
The last time that happened, the Rams put up 34 points by exploiting a weaker Tampa secondary. The 49ers secondary this season is weak on the corners, with none of them ranking inside the top 60, per PFF. K’Waun Williams allowed all five targets that came his way last week against the Cardinals to be completed.
Some ways to attack this in a same game parlay could be team totals, specifically on the Rams’ side at 26.5 points and the point spread, as well as to Matthew Stafford’s passing totals. Also keep an eye on Darrell Henderson’s rushing yards and carry totals, which could be a fruitful under given the schematic matchup.
Here’s an example two-leg, risk-free same game parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook with +362 odds, taking into account this film study :
- Darrell Henderson under 62.5 rushing yards
- Over Rams 26.5 points
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