Will Raiders Odds Surpass NFL Betting Expectations With ‘Healthy’ Garoppolo?
After a murky offseason surrounding Jimmy Garoppolo’s health, the Sin City quarterback passed his training camp physical on Sunday. He’ll avoid the physically unable to perform (PUP) list as a result. However, Garoppolo & Co. are still a longshot to make the NFL playoffs. With that in mind, how should bettors appraise Las Vegas Raiders odds for the upcoming NFL season? Let’s dig in.
Raiders odds: evalutaing offense
Per the odds table above, Las Vegas is set at to claim the Lombardi Trophy. These odds amount to a 1.23% implied probability. They’re priced alongside the lowly Panthers, Rams, and Commanders in that market. Regarding AFC West odds, Las Vegas is predictably behind Kansas City, Los Angeles, and Denver.
The aforementioned Garoppolo replaces Derek Carr, who signed with the New Orleans Saints — the betting favorite among NFC South odds. The former San Francisco QB inked a three-year, $72.75 million contract in the offseason despite requiring surgery to the left foot that he injured on Dec. 4, 2022. In 11 games, Garoppolo accumulated the third-highest dropback EPA. Only Super Bowl 57 MVP Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa finished ahead of him.
Additionally, Garoppolo is paired up with Josh McDaniels again after the two spent time together in New England. Garoppolo’s check-down mentality doesn’t necessarily line up with star wideout Devante Adams, who tallied 59 targets of 15-plus yards down the field last season — the most in the NFL. But Adams is constantly open, showcasing at least a 72% success rate on any given route in 2022. His receiving yards prop is is likely justified if Garoppolo stays healthy.
Nevertheless, there’s concern amongst a group of frustrated NFL running backs and the diminishing market for their position. In fact, Raiders tailback Josh Jacobs is reportedly prepared to hold out through the 2023 preseason — if not longer — in response to the stalling long-term contract negotiations with Las Vegas. His absence would certainly hinder the Raiders’ offensive prospects.
Raiders’ Win Total: /
Not only will Las Vegas face a slew of difficult interdivisional games, but their schedule also encompasses the AFC East and NFC North. The former is arguably the league’s best division while the latter has seen its bottom-feeders improve of late.
The remaining matchups include a road tilt against the Colts — and possibly rookie QB Anthony Richardson — along with the Steelers and Giants at home. Hence, they’ll square off against ex-Raider Darren Waller at Allegiant Stadium.
This slate isn’t terribly daunting on paper. Still, there are two glaring issues: Garoppolo’s health (with 38-year-old Brian Hoyer behind him) and an abysmal secondary. There’s a small chance that their defensive backs exceed expectations after surrendering the second-highest dropback EPA in 2022. Signing Marcus Peters doesn’t solve much.
Overall, I have the Raiders power rated as a bottom-five team. Bettors should be apprehensive of backing the over on the win total.
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