Nadal Odds: French Open GOAT A Big Underdog In First Round

Rafael Nadal takes the court on Sunday for perhaps his final run in the French Open. Fans and bettors might be surprised to learn that Nadal, the undisputed greatest of all time on clay, has long odds of getting out of the first round.

Is this an official changing of the guard, or does Nadal have one last championship in him? Let’s look at Rafael Nadal’s French Open odds, both in the opening round against Alexander Zverev and in the futures markets.

Nadal Vs. Zverev First-Round Odds

Unfortunately for Nadal and his fans, the lost 2023 season has tanked his seeding. The injury-plagued campaign saw Nadal participate in just one Grand Slam event, the Australian Open. That didn’t go well, as he lost in the second round while battling injury, a bad omen of things to come.

Now, Nadal enters the 2024 French Open unseeded, a rather comical turn of events considering he has won the event a record 14 times. This has left him with a first-round match against Alexander Zverev.

Seeded fourth, Zverev has yet to make good on his lofty talent with a Slam win. In the French, specifically, Zverev has gotten tantalizingly close. He’s reached the past three semifinals but failed to advance to the final each time. Tennis Abstract ranks him fifth on clay and fifth overall.

Nadal has lost only three times at the French and never before the fourth round. He boasts a staggering 97% win rate there. The consensus Nadal odds are around +300, likely the longest associated with the Spanish legend on clay in his career.

Zverev and Nadal will play on Sunday, May 26, at 6:00 am ET.

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14-Time Champ, Not a True Longshot

Interestingly, despite the rough first-round Nadal odds, he’s not a true longshot in the futures markets. He’s priced similarly to guys like Holger Rune and Casper Ruud, who are around -1000 in their opening-round matches.

Zverev, however, carries short odds as the fourth favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. He’s behind only Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, and Jannik Sinner.

Nadal’s track record still carries a lot of weight in the markets. If he’s healthy, even at age 37, he’s considered to have a legitimate chance to win. That qualifier matters, though, considering Nadal is coming off a season lost to injury and has already sustained a minor injury that caused him to miss the Aussie Open in January.