March Madness Odds: Purdue vs. NC State Final Four Betting Tips, Expert Picks, Predictions

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
NC State Odds

While top-seeded Purdue was favored to reach this stage of March Madness odds, the same cannot be said for 11-seed NC State. Let’s handicap the first Final Four contest, which is certainly lopsided on paper. Tar Heel Wolfpack State residents can also receive the best NC sportsbook promos to wager on Purdue vs. NC State odds. Our exclusive offers will net you up to $2,700 in bonus bets!

Click anywhere below to wager on a variety of betting markets. We’ve searched around for the best available odds in your state.

Purdue vs. NC state odds: spread, moneyline, total

The best spread odds for Purdue are . Meanwhile, the best NC State moneyline odds are . Elsewhere, the Wolfpack’s best odds to win the national title are . Remember that NC residents can receive exclusive offers on NC sports betting apps.

Is Wolfpack Defense Sustainable?

Purdue’s market power rating hasn’t risen nearly as much as NC State’s in the last month, but the Boilermakers were already considered one of college basketball’s premier teams. Thus, the Wolfpack makes for a trickier case study. Despite winning nine straight games to propel them into the Big Dance before making their historic NCAA tournament run, they were also one made free-throw away from getting ousted in the ACC tournament semifinals.

Normally, “Cinderellas” of this nature tend to receive some positive variance. Kevin Keatts’ bunch is no exception. Its opponents have shot 23.9% from behind the arc in March Madness. Granted, NC State’s defense has vastly improved, especially off-ball within its pick-and-roll coverage. In the Sweet 16 win against Marquette, the Wolfpack utilized the “show-and-recover” wrinkle to perfection, almost taking Golden Eagles center Oso Ighodaro out of the game offensively.

Ighodaro’s playmaking prowess often opens up the floor for Marquette’s upper-echelon floor-spacing, yet it missed its fair share of wide-open looks. That was the case versus arch-rival Duke in the Elite Eight, too. Overall, NC State ranks just above the D-I average in opponent 3-point attempt rate allowed.

Battle Of The Bigs

Purdue should at least generate similar 3-point looks if Zach Edey, the odds-on favorite to win his second straight Wooden Award, takes advantage of the Wolfpack’s interior defense to allow the Boilermakers to play inside-out. As much as fans (and bettors) want to see Edey battle DJ Burns down low, Mohamed Diarra and Ben Middlebrooks could get the assignment, especially considering Burns’ poor ball-screen defense.

Neither has faced a test like Edey, and both rank a tick below average in opponents’ post-up efficiency (via Synergy). Overall, they tend to rely on single coverage. If Purdue’s 3-point shooting sees positive regression after going 2-of-15 (13.3%) against Tennessee, this matchup could turn into a rout early on. Boilermakers guards Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer each boast a top-50 perimeter efficiency.

For those who buy into this notion, Caesars has an alternate point spread of Purdue -14.5 at +184 available as of this publishing.

However, Burns and NC State’s backcourt may flip the script. The offense has hummed to the tune of 1.11 PPP in the tournament, thanks to adept “quarterbacking” from point-forward Burns and combo guard DJ Horne. Well-timed shotmaking from Casey Morsell and Michael O’Connell has paid dividends as well.

Since the Boilermakers’ defense mostly employs Edey in drop coverage, they’ve surrendered the second-highest mid-range attempt rate nationally. Burns, Horne, and Morsell are adept marksmen from that area. Even if the Wolfpack can increase the pace slightly, with Purdue more comfortable operating within its hyper-efficiency half-court offense, they could keep things competitive.

Related: UConn – Alabama Final Four Odds Preview

Predictions: Purdue Vs. NC State Odds

My raw numbers have this spread near Purdue -10. Similarly, our partner Haslametrics forecasts a final score of Purdue 78.9-NC State 68.7, slightly favoring Purdue spread odds as of this publishing.

Final Four Player Props

More Purdue Betting Odds

More NC State Betting Odds

Are There North Carolina sports betting restrictions For March Madness?

Bettors in North Carolina must be 21 or older. Sportsbook customers can bet on in-state college teams without stipulations on individual prop bets, including UNC, Duke, and NC State player props in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Overall, North Carolina sports betting is not restrictive. Sportsbook users can wager on professional and collegiate sports at their leisure.

Local college teams, including Duke and NC State in the NCAA tournament, are always offered.

outside shots: final four betting preview

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