College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions Tuesday: No. 6 Purdue At No. 15 Marquette
Marquette men’s basketball battles Purdue at Fiserv Forum on Tuesday, Nov. 19. Both programs are in the top 15 of media polls and my college basketball power rankings. The Golden Eagles are Marquette Golden Eagles -5.5 (-105) on FanDuel favorites. Meanwhile, the total is lined at 136.5 (-110) on DraftKings. Let’s analyze the Purdue at Marquette odds board to determine whether there is any value.
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Purdue at Marquette odds: spread, moneyline, total
Wrong Team Favored?
The simple answer is a resounding no. Nevertheless, novice bettors will see Purdue is ranked higher in the latest media polls and question why the point spread isn’t flip-flopped, especially after the Boilermakers upset Alabama on Friday.
Although Purdue is likelier to cut down the nets, according to March Madness odds, it received a strong dose of positive variance against the Crimson Tide. Mark Sears and Co. converted on just 31% of their 3-point attempts, with over half of their misses coming via open catch-and-shoot looks (per Synergy).
Granted, Marquette hasn’t done itself any favors. The Golden Eagles have hit 30.6% of their unguarded shots from behind the arc. Senior four-man David Joplin is at the forefront of this issue, connecting on 1-of-7 triples in Friday’s win at Maryland.
The Shaka Factor
Unlike Alabama, Marquette is primed to rebound at home. It will face a backcourt, paced by Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, that often struggles to defend more athletic ball handlers.
The Golden Eagles also seek revenge, having fallen to Matt Painter’s group in last year’s Maui Invitational. This version of Marquette has fewer reliable marksmen than last season. But assuming the Golden Eagles benefit from positive regression, I expect Shaka Smart’s motion offense to give Purdue fits.
Smart’s bunch can stretch the floor at every position — from veteran point guard Kam Jones to the 6-foot-11 Ben Gold. Jones ranks 10th in KenPom’s Player of the Year ratings, shooting 54.5% on 3-point attempts while generating a top-45 assist rate.
College Basketball Projections
My raw numbers make Marquette near a -3.5 home favorite, a smidge higher than the opening line of -3. Good luck with your bets on Purdue vs. Marquette odds!
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