PSG Vs. Bayern Munich: 2022-23 Champions League Round Of 16 Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on February 13, 2023
Champions league odds

The UEFA Champions League round of 16 kicks off on Tuesday, Feb. 14 with Paris St-Germain vs. Bayern Munich. Bettors can catch the broadcast at 3 p.m. EST on various streaming platforms like fuboTV, Paramount+ and Univision. The winner has the edge before the two meet again in the second leg on March 8 in Germany. As part of TheLines‘ soccer coverage, let’s take a look at Champions League odds for this match.

PSG Vs. Bayern Munich Champions League Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Champions League knockout rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. 

If the aggregate-goal score after two legs is tied, there will be two 15-minute periods of extra time. However, it’s possible for a Champions League match to go to extra time with a Leg 2 score that was not tied. In this case, three-way moneyline bets for Leg 2 are graded for the team that leads after 90 minutes. 

If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out on the team to move on to the next round, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

PSG Team Preview

On the face of it, PSG looks to be flying once more. Scratch beneath the surface, and suddenly that does not seem to be the case. Injuries have hit to key players, form has gone out the window and Lionel Messi seemingly never left Qatar.

In fairness to the Argentine, you can hardly blame him after his sensational World Cup win at the end of last year. After finally getting his hands on the game’s richest prize, there is a sense that everything since has been a bit of a drop off.

That’s exactly what PSG has experienced in recent weeks. Not a drop off of a huge cliff, but a worrying slump in form all the same. Suddenly, the Ligue 1 title race has become interesting for the first time in a few years.

Admittedly, manager Christophe Galtier will likely to lead his charges to a second successive win there. But at the same time, this can only be considered the bare minimum. The Qatari owners want something far greater.

Greatness that comes in the shape of Champions League outright success. And with PSG reaching the final in 2020, conquering the continent eluded them on that summer’s night in Portugal. A night where they were second best to a certain Bayern Munich. This is something that they will have to avoid in Paris on Tuesday.

However, the absence of Kylian Mbappe has made a tough task all the more difficult.

Bayern Munich Team Preview

When looking at PSG and Bayern Munich, one can draw a number of parallels between the two clubs. Both are giants of their own domestic leagues and both are expected to deliver that trophy at a minimum. Both also harbor real hopes to lift the Champions League at the end of each season. And as far as these two teams are concerned, that is where the similarities suddenly come to an end.

Because Bayern knows what it takes to reach the top step of European soccer. After doing so three years ago, Julian Nagelsmann’s men are certainly within the top bunch of candidates to do so in 2023.

Especially as an already strong Bayern squad has strengthened further in the January transfer window. And with Yann Sommer being drafted between the sticks, Joao Cancelo will shore up the defense in front of him.

Not that Cancelo and his temporary teammates do much in the way of defending. And with the Manchester City loanee switching from one Champions League favorite to another, this could be a neat subplot later in the competition.

Now though, Bayern will look to continue from where they left off after the World Cup hiatus. After wrestling back the top spot in the Bundesliga, they will now look to show who is boss in Europe.

Champions League Knockout Rounds Bracket

Since the UCL draws for new matchups after the round of 16, there’s no set bracket for fans to follow just yet.

PSG Vs. Bayern Munich Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

Bayern Munich61821613.25.9+7.3

Matchup History

It is fair to say that PSG and Bayern Munich have become familiar recent foes in the Champions League. Of the 11 fixtures that have previously occurred, the former has come out on top slightly more often. Not by much, though. The Paris-based outfit earned six wins to Bayern’s five, so the overall record could square in just a few days.

Then again, PSG would love to trade their half-dozen for just one of their opponent’s previous victories. The success in question took place in the 2020 Champions League final. A single goal from former PSG player Kingsley Coman proved the difference. The German giants would ascend to the throne as kings of Europe.

Since that victory in the Portuguese capital of Lisbon, PSG managed to exact revenge the following season. The stakes may not have been as high, but a quarterfinal victory over two legs at least softened the blow of their previous disappointment.

PSG Vs. Bayern Munich Champions League Odds: Bets To Consider

Bayern Munich To Win And Over 1.5 Goals: +190

Although PSG currently finds themselves at the top of France’s Ligue 1, all does not seem well in the capital city. Kylian Mbappe is out injured, they are out of the cup competition, and they are dropping points where they would not have done so before.

The injury that Mbappe picked up a week or so ago will play massively into the hands of Bayern Munich.

Especially as the red machine is seemingly hitting top gear at just the right time. Whereas PSG is top but sputtering, Bayern is once again running roughshod in the Bundesliga. And when you consider the latter do not have to deal with Mbappe, this may tilt the balance of power in their favor. 

Even without the precocious talent of the French forward, though, Christophe Galter’s men have potential goals throughout the squad. This rates as a key factor in my first prediction.

By the same token, Bayern is not shy when it comes to attacking prowess. This encounter should lend itself to goals. Hence, I am backing the away win and at least two in total at +190.

Goal In The First 15 Minutes: +170

Because of such attacking prowess on display, neither PSG nor Bayern Munich will look to sit back early on. Goals can come from anywhere and they can also come at any time. 

An early goal for the hosts will coax the visitors into a more attacking-focused plan. An early goal for the visitors and the French counterparts will have to roll the dice themselves. Which is why both sides will look to assert their early dominance.

With this being a two-legged affair, the usual template would call for each team to stay in the tie so as not to pile the pressure on themselves for the rematch. However, with two such talented squads soon to go to war, neither can afford to sit back and soak up the pressure.

This is why I have backed a goal from either outfit to be netted within the first 15 minutes of the game. If you are looking for early entertainment, pick this Champions League encounter. And if you want early value, here is another reason to do so.

There will be a ludicrous amount of attacking talent on show on Tuesday. And with both also susceptible to conceding goals because of it, all you need to do is back this tip and wait for the fireworks.

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