PrizePicks NBA Bets Vs. Sportsbook Player Prop Odds: NBA On ESPN Friday Night

Friday night in the NBA brings us nine games chock-full of player prop lines, available across the best sports betting sites and PrizePicks. Using TheLines.com Prop Finder Tool, I found the best available odds for each of my top three prop bets as straight plays. I also compared them to the odds found for PrizePicks NBA picks, where each is available to combine with others. Below find out why I like the Lakers’ Taurean Prince to exceed his points projection, but the Nets’ Mikal Bridges and the Magic’s Paolo Banchero to go under theirs.

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PrizePicks NBA Picks: Higher or Lower Than 31.5 Points + Rebounds

Sportsbook NBA Player Prop Bet: Paolo Banchero under PTS+AST (1 unit)

Banchero is averaging 25 PPG and 5 APG over the last seven games since Franz Wagner went down with an injury. After two straight 30-point performances that saw him cruise past this line, he’s gone under it in five straight. During those five games, he was mostly without the majority of his supporting cast.

In addition to Wagner, Markelle Fultz, Wendell Carter Jr., Jonathan Isaac, and Joe Ingles were all unavailable. With all four players expected to suit up on Friday, Banchero’s usage rate should dip slightly.

It’s also a tough matchup with anyone boasting Banchero’s playstyle. Paolo is averaging more than 14 drives to the basket per contest, placing him in the 90th percentile of drives per game. He’s also shooting the majority of his shots inside five feet, which is exactly what Philly wants him to do. The 76ers’ defense under Nick Nurse funnels opposing teams into the lane where they are met by Embiid and a swarm of long defenders, such as Kelly Oubre Jr. and Tobias Harris.

Fultz’s return to the lineup also provides Orlando with a true point guard once again. During his recent absence, Paolo was enjoying the role of top playmaker for the Magic, boosting his assists on the season slightly. With everyone back except for Wagner, expect Banchero’s assist numbers to regress back to the mean.

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Editor’s Note

PrizePicks NBA Picks: Higher or Lower Than 23.5 Points

Sportsbook NBA Player Prop Bet: Mikal Bridges Under Points (1 unit)

Bridges and the Nets have failed to meet preseason expectations in 2023-24. Many thought Brooklyn might be able to cobble together enough wins to at least clinch a spot in the Play-In Tournament. Those lofty projections, however, were based heavily on Bridges’ ability to blossom into a top-level scorer, something he’s failed to do up to this point.

Over the last 20 games, he’s only managed to score 24 or more points on four occasions. He’s averaging 20 points per game during that time while shooting just 26% from deep. His poor shooting has forced him to try the majority of his shots from two-point territory, where he’s attempting 64% of his shots this season. He’s also attacking the rim more, scoring 36% of his points in the paint, up from 32% in 2022-23.

Bridges’ new-found aggression on offense has led to 6.2 free throws per game since December. While that might normally be a reason to back his overs more than anything, it likely won’t be helpful against the Lakers. L.A. is limiting teams to the 2nd lowest free throw rate in the league.

PrizePicks NBA Picks: Higher or Lower Than 8.5 Points

Sportsbook NBA Player Prop Bet: Taurean Prince Over PTS (1 unit)

Prince is in line for a good dose of minutes against the Nets. He’ll be the primary defender on Bridges, Brooklyn’s number-one option on offense. Prince has earned coach Darvin Ham’s trust on defense, establishing himself as one of the Lakers’ main rotation players. Over the last 10 games, he’s posted more than 30 minutes a night, consistently guarding the other team’s best wing player. He’s also scored at least nine points in eight of those 10.

That trend should continue against the Nets, who allow the fourth-most points to opposing small forwards, and for good reason. Brooklyn has an abysmal perimeter defense this season, allowing the fifth-most threes in the league. They’ve been most vulnerable against the corner three, coughing up the third-most makes from the deep corners. That’s typically where a “3-and-D” specialist such as Prince is waiting for an open look after his ballhandlers (eg. LeBron James) get into the lane. Prince is no different, putting up nearly five three-point attempts per game from the corners.

The combination of minutes and open looks should get him to nine points without too much of a sweat.

Best of luck on all your player props tonight!

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